Democrats will regret ousting Kevin McCarthy
Anthony DiMauro
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Democrats joined Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and seven other Republicans this week to vote Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) out of the House speakership.
The move came as somewhat of a surprise, as what started as a small minority of disgruntled populists in the Republican wing quickly turned into the first removal of a House speaker in the nation’s history — on a motion to vacate led by his own party, no less. Now, the Republican Party must work through this disarray with scarcely more than a month to pass a new funding bill.
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But as much as this is obviously bad for the Republican Party and the country, this is particularly a poor move by Democrats, one that will likely hurt them in the long run. While this vote was more than mere schadenfreude at the Republicans’ “civil war,” as Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) described it, it was a short-sighted move. It is unclear why Democrats would want this to have happened at all.
The results of the successful motion to vacate are worth revisiting as they begin to spell out the potentially disastrous trade Democrats made Tuesday. McCarthy was a Republican who was willing enough to work with Democrats that he defied a petulant but powerful minority wing of his own party to avoid a government shutdown with last week’s continuing resolution.
McCarthy also went to the table with concessions for opposing Democrats in raising the debt ceiling this past summer. That deal maintained much of Biden’s student debt relief plan, secured only two years of spending caps (as opposed to 10), and left intact $369 billion in clean energy incentives that were a major part of President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. McCarthy was also apparently willing to compromise with Biden on Ukraine funding amid partisan chaos. In short, for Democrats, McCarthy’s speakership could have been worse.
Now, Democrats face the real possibility that they will get someone worse and pay for it during upcoming elections.
Currently, the interim speaker is Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), a man who has never voted for a tax increase in his 10-term career — hardly a sign he has the markings of a deal maker. Who will replace him is of even greater concern for Democrats.
Gaetz and company are now the dog that caught the car but assuredly have no plan as to how to drive it. That can only mean what likely follows their small rebellion are decisions made by fingers in the wind.
Rep. Jim Jordan, the hard-right former Freedom Caucus chairman from Ohio, might be next to take the most powerful seat in the House, according to some. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is apparently also in the running. Even former President Donald Trump, standing outside a New York courthouse amid a civil fraud trial, stated he had been contacted about becoming the next speaker of the House — a post he is ineligible for under the Republican Party’s own rules.
Ultimately, none of the prospects for the 56th House speaker appear to be as willing as McCarthy to allow Democrats to push through key agenda items.
More importantly, with a government shutdown impending by mid-November, throwing the House into chaos was doubly unwise. Democrats control the White House and the Senate, with a sizable minority in the House. If the government shuts down in 43 days, the economic effects on both government workers furloughed without pay and small business owners and individuals who require government aid, including disaster relief in places such as Hawaii and Florida, will be pinned on Biden and the Democrats, whether fair or not.
Polls already show displeasure with the state of the economy, with more than 50% of Americans claiming the economy is getting worse. Biden’s approval ratings have been consistently low, and in August, they were at the second-lowest point of any president at that point in his term.
With the 2024 elections getting ever closer, a government shutdown would be potentially disastrous for Democratic candidates and the Biden White House. Having to fight off claims that you caused a government shutdown during a time in which most Americans see the economy as doing terribly is not a smart political calculation.
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Watching the clear incompetence of the Republican Party, the Democrats may be feeling a win at the moment. But the removal of McCarthy was a short-sighted one for the Democratic Party’s long-term success.
Anthony DiMauro is a New York-based writer. His work has appeared in Bloomberg, Business Insider, L.A. Review of Books, and elsewhere.