Is 2024 an opportunity for third parties?
Brady Leonard
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A Trump vs. Biden rematch seems inevitable at this juncture, barring one of their deaths or the off chance that one of them goes to prison. Of course, considering the president’s and former president’s ages, Joe Biden’s well-documented mental decline, and both front-runners’ (earned or unearned) legal troubles, a curveball is not out of the realm of possibility. Voters tend to “come home” as general elections draw near, but both presumptive major party nominees are facing record-high negatives and a severe lack of enthusiasm from all but their most loyal bases of support.
The next president will almost certainly be one of these two men, but a majority of people don’t approve of either in the Oval Office for another four years. 70% of voters don’t want Biden to run for reelection, citing age as their main concern; 60% of voters say the same about Donald Trump. Trump is leading his main rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), by more than 30 points in Iowa, but 79% of Republican primary voters in the state say they are considering other candidates. Biden is underwater with voters nationally, with 55.4% of Americans viewing him negatively. Trump’s numbers are even worse; the former president is underwater by 16.5 points, with 56.4% of voters viewing him negatively.
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With both candidates hovering at or below 40% approval, the stage is set for third-party candidates to make waves. A third-party, or independent, bid is not going to win one of these long shots the presidency, but 2024 could see other candidates affect the race far more than the typical Libertarian and Green Party sacrificial lambs.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is set to end his bid challenging Biden for the Democratic Party nomination and shift to an independent presidential run. Kennedy is polling around 15% in the Democratic primary and may lose support from Democrats, but he could pick up support elsewhere. Conspiracy theories aside, Kennedy has been an outspoken critic of both COVID-19 lockdowns and U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war, two issues that cross party lines. Kennedy has a path to gain support from both old-school Democrats who admire the Kennedy name and economic populists who have grown tired of Trump.
In the last two election cycles, the Libertarian Party has produced some duds. Gary Johnson was a former Republican governor who couldn’t find Syria if you planted him in Cyprus and gave him a telescope; Jo Jorgensen was a non-libertarian woke apologist. The party seems more serious this time around. Joshua Smith, a grassroots libertarian activist and former party vice chairman, is gaining support among former Ron Paul supporters with an aggressive, no-nonsense style of chastising the government for its crimes.
Smith would be able to articulate the libertarian message far better than previous candidates. So would Marxist-turned-anarcho-capitalist, former NYU professor, and author Michael Rectenwald, who has also thrown his hat in the ring with the support of prominent libertarians such as podcaster Dave Smith. The libertarian message of noninterventionism, free markets, and decentralization could play well for painfully obvious reasons.
Far-left independent candidate Cornel West could give Biden trouble on his left flank. The Marxist intellectual is an unrepentant progressive who echoes many of his fellow travelers’ frustrations with the Democratic Party. Unlike other socialists such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who kissed the ring in the name of beating Orange Man Bad, West may attract the activist class of the progressive base.
Large swaths of the electorate are not buying what the 45th and 46th presidents are selling. Can one or more of these third-party candidates make an otherwise tedious race more interesting? Can they move one or both of the geriatric front-runners in one direction or another on policy? Considering Trump’s and Biden’s negatives, if these candidates cannot make a case that appeals to undecided voters, they will have only themselves to blame.
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Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a musician, political strategist, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.