‘Brutal map’ scaring away potential DSCC chairs to lead Democrats in 2024
David M. Drucker
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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is having a hard time landing a new person to chair the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee amid concerns preserving the party’s grip on the chamber in 2024 is an impossible task.
Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats, three of which sit in ruby-red states the Republican presidential nominee is likely to carry in the general election and five of which sit in purple battlegrounds. Only 10 GOP-held seats are up for election in 2024, and just one of them sits in a state, Florida, that presents the possibility of being nominally competitive in a presidential contest.
It’s no wonder Schumer, the DSCC chairman in the 2006 and 2008 cycles, is struggling to recruit a senator to lead his caucus’s campaign arm.
“The map is brutal,” a Democratic operative said, echoing others in the party. “And there are pros and cons to doing this in a presidential cycle. The biggest con is that it’s hard to set yourself apart, if you need to, when the presidential campaign consumes all of the political oxygen.”
This is not the first time Senate Democrats entered a new election cycle with prospects for retaining their majority looking bleak. In 2012, with former President Barack Obama running for reelection, the Democrats, then as now, were defending 23 seats to the GOP’s 10. Then as now, Republicans entered the cycle with what appeared to be a friendly map and the political advantage. On Election Day, the Democrats picked up two seats.
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This year’s midterm election also saw the Democrats begin with their 50-seat Senate majority on thin ice, especially amid President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings and voter anxiety about the economy and public safety. By the time all the votes had been counted in last week’s Georgia runoff, the Democrats had gained a seat, boosting their ranks to 51. Despite this history of defying the odds, the DSCC chairmanship remains unfilled.
Some Democrats are less worried than others about the looming battle for Senate control. “’The next election should be easy for Senate Democrats.’ Something that’s never said by the press,” Democratic operative Dana Houle said in a Twitter post. “Every cycle is assumed to be a problem for Democrats.”
Eventually, Schumer, who led the Democrats to a pickup of 14 Senate seats over consecutive terms leading the DSCC, will find a chair for the committee.
But so far, most of the names raised have demurred or signaled disinterest. Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), the outgoing DSCC chairman, confirmed to the Washington Examiner Tuesday through a spokesperson that he rebuffed entreaties to reprise the role for two more years. Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Jon Ossoff (D-GA), Alex Padilla (D-CA), and Tina Smith (D-MN) also are saying they do not want the job, according to the Huffington Post.
There are benefits to chairing the DSCC. It empowers senators to raise their national profile, expand their network of grassroots and wealthy donors, build support for future leadership bids or the chairmanship of a policy committee, and earn favors from incumbents and newly elected senators to be redeemed later. Schumer’s DSCC tenure fast-tracked the New Yorker to succeed former Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), who died last December, as the Democratic leader.
Still, politicians do not like to take on losing propositions. The 2024 map is daunting, and it could take a herculean effort to protect the Democratic Party’s 51-seat majority. Asked if he had any advice for his eventual successor, Peters said: “Work hard.” Those who could be vulnerable in 2024 are:
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), a chief Democratic negotiator in the Senate for the Respect for Marriage Act, the law legalizing same-sex marriage Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who this week left the Democratic Party and registered as an independent but still caucuses with the Democrats Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), a member of Schumer’s leadership team Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), a former DSCC chairman yet to decide on seeking a fourth term
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Working with some or all of those formidable incumbents, some Democrats believe, will in time help Schumer convince one of the members of his caucus to take on the job of helping reelect them in 2024. Meanwhile, Republicans have the luxury of defending Senate seats in Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming, plus two in Nebraska, one regularly scheduled election and one special election.
Schumer’s leadership spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this report.