Did Biden just greenlight World War III?
Michael Rubin
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Acting Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Yuri Kim declared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Sept. 14, “We will not tolerate any attack on the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.”
Five days later, as Azerbaijan broke its ceasefire agreement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken chided, “The use of force to resolve disputes is unacceptable,” but he threatened no consequence.
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The next day, Nagorno-Karabakh’s self-governing, democratic Armenian enclave surrendered. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev crowed triumphant. He called America’s bluff and crossed Washington’s redline without consequence.
Blinken may not care about Nagorno-Karabakh’s Christian community any more than he cared about Nigeria’s. For the Biden administration, human rights is a rhetorical flourish, not a sincere belief. Opposition to genocide is useful to climb the career ladder but an inconvenience when nearing the top.
The problem is what happens in Artsakh will not stay in Artsakh. Consider: Azerbaijan’s cheerleaders in the West defended Azerbaijan’s right to besiege and attack the disputed area on the basis that the international community recognized Azerbaijani sovereignty, never mind that the country has never actually controlled the always-autonomous or Armenian area before.
Precedents matter. If Azerbaijan can ethnically cleanse and starve the Armenian community in Nagorno-Karabakh on the grounds that the “international community” recognizes its sovereignty, does that mean the path forward to a final solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute could be providing the Palestinian Authority or even Hamas with advanced drones, Turkish F-16s, and artillery? After all, more than two-thirds of the United Nations’s 193 members recognize the State of Palestine on territory that Israel disputes. That Palestine as a state has never controlled the West Bank is immaterial now that not only President Joe Biden’s team but also many conservative Republicans and the broader pro-Israel community appear to endorse Azerbaijan’s conquest.
Israel can take care of itself, but the situation gets truly dangerous regarding Taiwan. The last time China could claim any control over Taiwan was 130 years ago. Put another way, America owned Cuba as a result of the Spanish-American War more recently than China possessed Taiwan. But even that claim needs an asterisk. Over the past five centuries, China can claim real control over Taiwan for only two or three decades.
Still, most countries parrot Beijing’s “One China” lie for the same reason they parrot Baku’s “Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan” canard: cash. Beijing openly bribes governments to peel them away from Taiwan. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, engages in caviar diplomacy, showering politicians and opinion leaders with swank gifts, ritzy trips, or business opportunities.
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If Chinese President Xi Jinping supported Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foray into Ukraine as analogous to his desire to reconquer Taiwan, Ukraine’s resistance and the consolidation of the NATO spirit may have given him second thoughts. The United States and Europe’s flaccid response may convince him once again that he can get away with a land grab and war of national extermination. Few countries recognize Taiwan, so how many might rally to the island’s defense? While Biden, Blinken, and the team wag their fingers, would they really mobilize for Taiwan? After all, Xi has the sovereignty argument in his pocket, even if it is unjust. Likewise, Biden and Blinken show by condemning Artsakh’s democracy to Azerbaijan’s dictatorship that freedom and liberty are of no concern to Washington.
The State Department may believe that even if Azerbaijan slaughters or enslaves Armenian Christians (Azerbaijani telegram channels have already put bounties and prices on women and children), headlines will move on and the world will forget. They might, and that is tragic. But Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Xi will not forget as they redouble their efforts to destroy nearby democracies. U.S. intelligence suggested China could act against Taiwan as soon as 2027. That clock may have just sped up. Biden may have inadvertently greenlit World War III.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.