Ukraine’s idiotic grain lawsuit against Poland and Slovakia
Tom Rogan
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On Sunday, Ukraine announced it will sue Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland at the World Trade Organization. Kyiv’s complaint is those nations’ rejection of new European Union rules requiring them to allow Ukrainian grain imports. Each nation fears that allowing importation of cheaper grain will undercut their domestic agricultural industries.
To be fair to Ukraine, its legal action makes sense with Hungary. Budapest plainly has the weakest case for sympathy. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is Xi Jinping’s favorite EU pet and Vladimir Putin’s favorite EU partner. Ukraine’s action against Hungary costs it nothing since Orban offered nothing anyway. Kyiv’s actions against Slovakia and Poland are a different matter, however.
UK GOVERNMENT AGGRAVATES EVERYONE WITH CHINA ESPIONAGE RESPONSE
As military analyst Patrick Fox (and my fellow King’s College London war studies alum) observed, “Ukraine must get its foreign relations house in order. Poland [and] Slovakia have both accepted Ukrainian refugees [and] supplied military aid to Kyiv. Publicly suing both nations in the WTO over agricultural export restrictions is incredibly short sighted. Announcing this less than two weeks before Slovaks go to the polls in an election that could see Robert Fico returned as Prime Minister of Slovakia is downright stupid.”
Fox’s point is well made. A populist anti-American, Fico has pledged to end military aid to Ukraine. He would also offer Putin a new voice in his favor at the EU table. Ukraine has now gifted him a free ad blitz as his campaign enters the home stretch. If nothing else, this is a terrible disservice to incumbent President Zuzana Caputova. She has received vitriolic attacks from Fico for her stalwart support of Ukraine.
Still, Ukraine’s lawsuit is particularly moronic when it comes to Poland.
For a start, Poland is also going to the polls in short order. Poles will elect a new parliament on Oct. 15. Concerns by Polish farmers over being undercut by Ukrainian imports have been a key campaign issue. Yet very few nations have done more to support Ukraine than Warsaw. The Kiel Institute estimates that Poland has thus far committed $4.6 billion to Ukraine, or 0.7% of its GDP. Were that same percentage applied to U.S. GDP in 2022, it would amount to $178 billion. Warsaw has also been an ardent voice within the European Union and NATO for providing greater support, including more advanced weapons, to Ukraine.
There is an immense foolishness to Kyiv’s action here.
Poland’s support is of critical value to Ukraine today but may be of existential value as time goes on. After all, Putin is banking on the war eventually sapping the resolve of the EU and the U.S. to support Kyiv. Putin will hope that if a stalemate develops and Europe’s economy continues to sputter, more Moscow-friendly governments will take power. Or, at the very least, that the EU will significantly curtail its support for Ukraine.
There’s a broader concern. While President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown great fortitude in leading a righteous defense of his people and nation, his government has also shown a notable penchant for misguided arrogance. This has been most evident with Zelensky’s adversarial rejection of Western requests that he show more gratitude for arms supplies. Yet, as with these grain sanctions, Zelensky’s rebukes show he doesn’t recognize he isn’t simply dealing with Western governments. Ultimately, he’s also dealing with the populations that elect or remove those governments. He needs to secure the support of both interests over the longer term.
Ukraine’s grain action offers only a pitch-perfect boost to those who would see Ukraine abandoned. That is not a good strategy.