‘She’s the only one who can win the election’: The electability case for Nikki Haley
Timothy P. Carney
Video Embed
BOILING SPRINGS, South Carolina — David Mingia lives with his dog Maggie in an RV that was parked in back of Plankowner Brewing Company (or maybe in front of the Denny’s). Mingia calls himself “a gypsy” and wears a tie-dyed shirt and an earring.
He’s brought a group of fellow “gypsies” or nomads to the Nikki Haley town hall at this brewery near Spartanburg. He believes Haley would have the best chance of winning the general election among all the current Republican candidates.
BIDEN FCC NOMINEE ON TRACK FOR CONFIRMATION, OPENING PATH TO NET NEUTRALITY DEBATE
“She’s the only person that was on that debate stage the other day that was rational and reasonable,” he said before the town hall. “Everybody else was yelling and being mean and s***.”
“I have a rule in life. It’s called being nice. You get further with sugar than you do with vinegar, and I think Nikki is that way.” That niceness, Mingia argues, is what gives her the best general election chances. Specifically, Haley, through her personality more than anything, will have a better appeal to independents and Democrats who have soured on Biden.
Debbie Belcher of Lyman, South Carolina, works with registered Democrats who told her that they’d vote Republican if Haley were the nominee. This struck the crowd as obviously true, and they actually had a data point to back their belief in Haley’s electability:
In a CNN poll of more than 1,200 registered voters, Haley did the best against President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup, beating him 49% to 43%. The other candidates — Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Mike Pence — all had small leads or deficits that were easily within the poll’s margin of error.
Haley’s campaign touted that fact before she took the stage at the brewery, and one supporter held a sign aloft throughout the event, reading “Haley 49%, Biden 43%.”
It’s one poll. It’s of registered voters nationwide, not likely voters, and not swing-state voters. But it bolsters a sense that Haley’s optimistic supporters already had: She’s the most electable Republican, and it comes down to her experience and likability.
“She’s the only one who can win the election,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) said in introducing Haley.
“I think she could kick Biden’s ass,” said Derek Smith, a former Southern Baptist preacher who is now a public school teacher. “It’s hard to not like Nikki Haley. … She’s smooth as silk, man. I like her a lot.” Smith compared Haley favorably to the GOP front-runners: “I think she’s easier to swallow than DeSantis, and I think Trump’s going to jail — I mean, he still might win the primary, though.”
“She’s a woman” was the reason two different Haley supporters saw her as most electable. Swing voters would love to elect a woman, and suburban women turned off from the GOP by Trump might come back, the reasoning goes.
Many cited Haley’s performance in the GOP debate as evidence that she could compete well against Biden.
“She’s a moderate Republican” was Ken Stoppelbein’s argument for Haley’s superior electability. That will “pull those independents away” from Biden, he argued, much better than DeSantis or Trump could.
In primary elections, much more than general elections, perceptions can become reality, and analyses can become self-fulfilling. If future polls corroborate that Haley does best against Biden, and if she continues to come across as a skilled debater who’s nice, that could make her the top challenger to Trump in the GOP primary.
SEE THE LATEST POLITICAL NEWS AND BUZZ FROM WASHINGTON SECRETS
After the event, Mingia was walking Maggie and smoking a cigarette outside his mobile home. He thought Haley was exquisite on stage, which confirmed his belief that she’s the most electable Republican. But her niceness, which Mingia loves, could be a handicap for her, he suggests.
“I don’t think she has a shot in hell of winning the nomination.”