Lots of Republicans can beat Joe Biden: Poll
Byron York
NEW POLL: LOTS OF REPUBLICANS CAN BEAT JOE BIDEN. These days, each poll seems to bring discouraging news for President Joe Biden. Voters think he’s too old. They don’t approve of his job performance. They prefer someone else be the Democratic nominee for president. They think he was involved in his son Hunter Biden’s shady international influence-peddling business. And they would choose a Republican over Biden in a head-to-head 2024 matchup.
All of that bad news and more is contained in a poll from CNN. First, just 39% of those surveyed say they approve of the job he is doing as president, versus 61% who disapprove. It’s been two years since a majority of Americans approved of Biden’s job performance. During that time, his job approval bounced around in the 40s. Now, it has dipped into the high 30s. To make matters worse, a solid majority — 58% — say Biden’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the United States. That’s a bad place to be if you are a president seeking reelection.
Then pollsters asked, “What is your biggest concern, if any, about Joe Biden as a candidate for president in 2024?” A huge majority of Democrats, not the electorate as a whole, but Biden’s own party, named issues related to Biden’s age. Forty-nine percent answered “his age/too old/need someone younger.” Seven percent answered “his mental competence/sharpness/senility.” Another 7% answered “his health.” And another 7% said “ability to handle the job/effectiveness.” Added together, that is 70% of Democrats who have serious concerns about whether Biden, who would start a second term at age 82, is up to the job of president of the U.S.
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Given that, it’s not a surprise that a majority of Democrats do not want Biden to be the party’s 2024 candidate. The pollsters asked a simple question: “Who do you think the Democratic Party should nominate as the party’s candidate for president in 2024?” The answers were Joe Biden, a different candidate, or no opinion. Sixty-seven percent said they want a different candidate, while just 33% said they want Biden. The only good news for Biden is that those 67% of Democrats do not have a specific alternative in mind. A few said Bernie Sanders (who is older than Biden), a few said Pete Buttigieg, or Gavin Newsom, or Gretchen Whitmer. But no alternative candidate received significant support, which means that Biden can probably become the nominee simply by not going anywhere.
There’s more discouraging news for Biden on the Hunter Biden front. The pollsters asked: “Based on what you have heard or read, do you think Joe Biden did or did not have any involvement in his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine and China while serving as vice president?” Sixty-one percent said Joe Biden did have some involvement in Hunter Biden’s business, while 38% said he did not. Joe Biden, has, of course, strongly denied any involvement, meaning most Americans don’t believe him.
And then there is Joe Biden versus the GOP. The pollsters measured Biden against all of his major Republican would-be challengers and found that, while all the scenarios were close, the president could defeat only one of them — Vivek Ramaswamy — and then by just a single point.
First, of course, the pollsters asked about Biden versus former President Donald Trump. The result: Trump 47%, Biden 46%. Then, other Republicans, and more bad news for Biden: Mike Pence 46%, Biden 44%. Tim Scott 46%, Biden 44%. Chris Christie 44%, Biden 42%. The results show Biden struggling and losing against candidates who are sure to be also-rans in the Republican primary race.
When the contest was Joe Biden versus Ron DeSantis, the two men tied, 47% to 47%. When it was Biden versus Ramaswamy, Biden won, 46% to 45%. Only one matchup yielded a significant lead for either candidate. When matched against Nikki Haley, Biden lost 43% to Haley’s 49%. That 6-point margin was the biggest of any matchup between Biden and a Republican.
The poll is more evidence that Haley is having a moment in the aftermath of the first Republican debate on Aug. 23. Word of mouth about Haley’s strong performance is spreading in ways that were not measured in the quickie polls taken immediately after the debate. Maybe it won’t last, but Haley is in a strong position as the party heads toward a second debate later this month.
And Biden is weak, not just against Haley but against every Republican. If that continues, it will surely have a profound influence on the way Biden campaigns. In this way: If Biden were far ahead, he would likely run an old-fashioned Democratic campaign stressing how much money he and his Democratic colleagues in Washington have spent, how many new programs they have created, to benefit the middle class. But if Biden is in a fight for his political life, his campaign will become a scare campaign, based on dark warnings of a MAGA movement that wants to destroy democracy.
You say that would only happen in a Biden versus Trump match? Of course it would. But Biden and the Democratic Party will use it against any other Republican who might become the GOP presidential nominee. If she becomes the nominee and is highly competitive against Biden, Nikki Haley will become a MAGA extremist. Tim Scott will become a MAGA extremist. Ron DeSantis, of course, was already portrayed that way when he appeared to be a strong threat to supplant Trump. If Biden is in trouble, any Republican he runs against will be a MAGA extremist.
So, there is a very good chance that this will not be a highly edifying presidential campaign. The new CNN poll shows a broad range of factors threatening to derail Joe Biden’s slow shuffle to reelection. Those factors will likely become more ominous, from Biden’s perspective, as time goes by.
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