Trump implies he would not intervene against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
Tom Rogan
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Former President Donald Trump hinted that he would not order a U.S. military intervention against China were it to attack Taiwan.
Trump’s comments came in a wide-ranging interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday.
Hewitt began the foreign policy component of his interview by questioning Trump about the war in Ukraine. The former president said Vladimir Putin would not have invaded Ukraine had he won the 2022 election. As Trump put it, “Ukraine is so sad. Every time I turn it on, that was a war that I knew it was the apple of Putin’s eye. He would have never done it if the election weren’t rigged, our election. It was rigged and stolen. If that election wasn’t rigged, if I were president, you would right now have millions of people living that are dead.”
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Trump failed to explain how his victory would have secured peace. But the only way he could have stopped Russia’s war, being that this war is driven by Putin’s openly stated pursuit of destiny (read what Putin wrote seven months before the invasion), would have been to threaten Moscow with U.S. military intervention. It seems highly unlikely that Trump would have made such a threat.
Hewitt then asked Trump about his fellow 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s pledge to break up the Sino-Russian strategic partnership. Trump responded, “Well, I can do that very easily, and I did that, you know, for four years. They were not close with me. And I was close to both of them. And then when COVID came in, I said that’s a shift too far as far as Xi [Jinping] is concerned. I had a great relationship with him.”
This is a nonanswer. The truth is that neither Ramaswamy, Trump, nor any other president could break the Sino-Russian partnership. Not unless, that is, they were willing to abandon the best European allies to Russia and disintegrate the U.S.-led alliance structure (along with all the accrued benefits for peace, freedom, and prosperity that alliance provides).
Then came the Taiwan question. Hewitt asked, “[China is] threatening Taiwan. Would you defend Taiwan if you’re president again?
Trump responded, “I had a great, I had a great relationship with, I had great relationships with everyone. You don’t have to worry about Taiwan. If I’m president, Taiwan will never happen, meaning China will never go into Taiwan if I’m president, not even a chance.” Note Trump’s focus on relationships, even where those relationships fail to translate into tangible policy results.
Hewitt pushed Trump, asking, “If [China] did [attack Taiwan], would you take up arms against them? Force?” Trump continued: “They will not do it. Zero chance. And Russia would have never gone into Ukraine. Zero chance. There are other things you can do without going into a nuclear holocaust. There are other things you can do. China will never go into Taiwan.”
As I see it, the key line here is: “There are other things you can do without going into a nuclear holocaust.” This language suggests Trump’s belief that a U.S. military intervention over Taiwan would be tantamount to nuclear war. What to make of this?
Well, while a U.S.-China nuclear exchange over Taiwan could not be ruled out, it is an unlikely prospect given the damage that such an exchange would do to both the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party. Moreover, the respective nuclear weapons capabilities of each nation (admittedly, China is rapidly surging its nuclear weapons portfolio) mean that China would lose a nuclear war with the U.S. and likely cease to exist as a viable nation-state in the event of full-scale nuclear war. Nevertheless, the fact that Trump immediately jumps to this nuclear concern is noteworthy. It strongly implies that he would be unwilling to risk using U.S. military force over Taiwan.
That perspective is entirely legitimate, of course. The problem for Trump is that, as with his absent detail on prospectively preventing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump’s “There are other things you can do” comment regarding a Chinese invasion of Taiwan lacks credibility. Xi views Taiwan’s subjugation under the Communist Party flag as a question of destiny of similar if not greater consequence to his rule than Putin’s perspective on Ukraine. In turn, Xi would likely be willing to incur any consequence short of military defeat to achieve his Taiwan ambitions.
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Put simply, Trump can say he would have prevented the war in Ukraine and would prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But voters deserve more detail as to how he would do so. Saying “I was friendly with Xi and Putin” is an unserious response.