Trump’s GOP support has only climbed since the indictments began
Mabinty Quarshie
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Donald Trump is the first U.S. president in history to face one indictment, much less multiple charges stemming from four criminal cases since leaving office, and yet so far, they don’t seem to be a barrier to him returning.
Two of those indictments, from a federal grand jury and a Georgia grand jury, are related to Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 elections. Another indictment is related to the former president’s mishandling of sensitive national security documents once out of the White House. A superseding indictment related to the charges was released last month against Trump.
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Trump faces another indictment from a Manhattan jury pertaining to a hush money payment scheme to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election. All told, Trump is facing 91 counts across the four criminal cases. He has claimed innocence of all of the charges.
But the indictments don’t appear to have abated Republican voter support for Trump, who remains the lead candidate to become the GOP’s next standard-bearer. His poll numbers have steadily increased over all his 2024 rivals, leading competitors by double-digit numbers.
Trump’s first unprecedented indictment came in late March when a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict Trump over a $130,000 payment made to Daniels in the final days of the 2016 election. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg unsealed the indictment against the former president, who now faces 34 felony charges for falsifying business records. Trump pleaded not guilty to all charges.
More than two months later, on June 8, Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to announce that his lawyers had been notified Trump would be indicted. The next day on June 9, a federal grand jury in Miami indicted Trump and his aide Walt Nauta for allegedly mishandling classified documents.
Special counsel Jack Smith later released a superseding indictment on July 27, adding three more charges that Trump faces related to the classified documents case and another co-defendant to the case, maintenance worker Carlos De Oliveira. The superseding indictment from Smith brings the total charges against Trump for improperly mishandling sensitive documents to 40, up from the 37 federal charges that were first announced. Of the 40 charges, 32 are related to willful retention of national defense information, six are related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and two pertain to making false statements.
On Aug. 1, Smith indicted Trump over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election and the subsequent Jan. 6 Capitol riot that heavily relied on allegations that Trump pressured former Vice President Mike Pence not to certify the electoral vote count after the election. Trump faces four charges: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.
Trump responded to the indictments during a campaign rally in Windham, New Hampshire, by attacking Democrats and using an expletive to describe the case. “How can my corrupt political opponent, crooked Joe Biden, put me on trial during an election campaign that I’m winning by a lot?” Trump asked. “But forcing me nevertheless to spend time and money away from the campaign trail in order to fight bogus, made-up accusations and charges, that’s what they’re doing. I’m sorry, I won’t be able to go to Iowa today. I won’t be able to go to New Hampshire today because I’m sitting in a courtroom on bulls*** because his attorney general charged me with something. Terrible.”
Pence, Trump’s 2024 rival, has repeatedly said on the campaign trail that he chose to put his oath to the Constitution over his allegiance to his onetime boss.
Trump’s poll numbers have increased, not decreased, due to his legal problems, much to the chagrin of his competitors. An April 14 Morning Consult poll showed Trump at 55% support among GOP primary voters. By June 10, his support increased by 4 percentage points to 59%. On Aug. 1, the same day as the 2020 related indictment, Trump still maintained 59% support among the GOP. As of Aug. 27, Trump is at 58%, far above his closest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), at 14%, a 44 percentage point advantage.
A RealClearPolitics poll average showed Trump at just under 46% at the end of March, above DeSantis, his top rival, at roughly 30%. Five months later, Trump is polling at 53.6%, more than 40 percentage points above DeSantis at 13.5%, who has lost support at the same time that Trump’s hold over the Republican base has increased.
The federal case over the 2020 election and Jan. 6 will likely affect the presidential primary after federal Judge Tanya Chutkan scheduled the trial for March 4, 2024, one day before Super Tuesday.
“Crooked Joe Biden, Deranged Jack Smith, and their henchmen continue to abuse the American justice system in their goal of interfering in the 2024 Presidential Election in order to prevent President Trump from returning to the Oval Office,” said Trump’s spokesperson in a statement. “The date set today deprives President Trump of his Constitutional right to a fair trial, a seminal bedrock of America, and continues to expose the corruption of the witch hunts being thrown against President Trump. From setting a trial date for the day before ‘Super Tuesday’ to sending a fundraising email the moment of President Trump’s processing in Fulton County, the Biden regime is no longer hiding its nakedly political motivations. President Trump will not be deterred, he will fight these hoaxes at every turn, and will win for the American people.”
Earlier this month on Aug. 14, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis announced a sweeping 41-count indictment against Trump and 18 others over their efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. The former president faces 13 indictments, including racketeering charges and solicitation of violation of oath by a public officer, among other charges. Trump surrendered to the authorities on Aug. 24, in which his mug shot was taken and released to the general public. Unlike in Smith’s cases, if Trump is convicted in Georgia, he will be unable to pardon himself from the charges.
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A FiveThirtyEight poll tracker showed Trump at 45.3% support on March 30, the day of his first indictment. By Aug. 30, his support had risen to 50.3% support, while DeSantis polls at 14.8%.
The Trump campaign announced it had raised more than $9.4 million since the mug shot was released and more than $20 million in August alone, a sign that Trump’s front-runner status in the GOP primary race has not deflated in the wake of his most recent legal problems.