Republican debate: Nikki Haley could win by reminding the debate it’s about the economy, stupid
Tiana Lowe Doescher
Video Embed
Nikki Haley has consistently high favorables — 47% of Republicans view her favorably, with just 19% viewing her unfavorably — and the fact that she’s a Gen X, Indian American woman running to compete with President Joe Biden, who would be 86 at the end of a second term in the Oval Office, and Kamala Harris, another Gen X, Indian American woman, explains why some Democrats are terrified of the chance Haley catches fire. But the former South Carolina governor has failed to break through the noise of the 24-hour Trump news cycle, polling around 3% nationally.
The problem isn’t that Republicans dislike Haley; it’s that despite her barnstorming every town hall in Iowa, they literally aren’t hearing about her. According to Morning Consult, voters have heard less about Haley’s campaign than that of anyone else on the stage for the first Republican presidential debate except for also-rans former small-state governors Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum.
REPUBLICAN DEBATE: RNC ANNOUNCES THE EIGHT GOP 2024 CONTENDERS WHO MADE THE CUT
Haley has the chance to transform her campaign, but unlike the other candidates on the stage, she doesn’t have to resort to extremes to differentiate herself or make the case for her electability, which speaks for itself. Rather, Haley needs to lean into her roots, not as the Trump administration’s ambassador to the United Nations but rather as the accountant who can remind the stage that this election is about the economy, stupid.
As a presidential contender, Haley has made the most headlines sparring with fellow Republicans over foreign policy, and as the only woman in the race, she’s campaigned on the fact that she’s always stood up to bullies on the international stage. But while the media and the top two candidates in the race, former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), may ignore economic policy, Haley has not. The question is whether she can capitalize on the issue during the debate. If Haley leans into her record and current candidacy as a spending hawk hellbent on entitlement reform, it could transform her campaign.
In a repeat of an encyclopedia’s worth of polling, a new Morning Consult poll shows that the overwhelming majority of Republicans consider discussion about the economy, government spending, and taxes “very important” during the inaugural debate. In contrast to these 80% of Republicans who uniformly represent Trump supporters and non-Trump supporters, only half of the GOP electorate considers China a very important topic of debate, and just one-third consider Ukraine very important.
Of the serious contenders on the stage, only Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence have proudly and publicly committed to serious entitlement reform, including raising the retirement age for Social Security. Compare that to Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy, who have promised not to reform the programs. In practice, that means a 23% across-the-board benefit cut once the program becomes insolvent in 10 years. (DeSantis has spent his entire campaign ignoring the issue entirely, spending the bulk of his first economic proposal outlining his war on environmental, social, and governance and the “elites.”)
Whereas public opinion of the former vice president is baked in — and it’s not great, with a net approval rating of just plus 5 and only 11% of Republicans undecided — Haley still has an incredibly high ceiling. More voters have made up their minds about Ramaswamy than Haley, and he’s never even held elected office before.
On cable news, Haley sounds prepared. On campaign stops, she sounds impassioned, and incredibly, voters positively respond to a candidate giving them tough news instead of the sycophancy they’ve come to expect from Trump.
“We are $31 trillion in debt, almost $32 trillion, and China owns 12% of our national debt. We are having to borrow money just to make on interest payments,” Haley said to a transfixed audience in the toney town of Rye, New Hampshire, back in May. “Now, it would be easy for me to just beat up on Biden for that. But I have always spoken hard truths. And I’m gonna do that with you today. All Republicans did that to us, to you, go and look at that $2.2 trillion COVID stimulus bill that they passed with no accountability whatsoever. They expanded welfare. That now leaves us with 90 million Americans on Medicaid, 42 million Americans on food stamps. Did the Republicans try and fix it? No, they doubled down and opened up earmarks for the first time in 10 years.”
I have seen this appeal work in person. But the question is whether she brings it to a national audience. If she capitalizes on her competitors’ refusal to focus on the U.S. dollar’s depreciating value and common sense, Haley could see her star rise yet again.