As counteroffensive shows little progress, Ukraine battles another foe: pessimism
Jamie McIntyre
‘SOBERING IS THE WORD’: Night after night, President Volodymyr Zelensky records an upbeat video address to the war-weary Ukrainian people. He laments the latest casualties, rails against Russia, praises his warriors, and promises eventual liberation of all occupied territory, including Crimea.
“Step by step, we are making the de-occupation of Crimea more and more achievable and well-thought-out,” Zelensky said in last night’s address. “Every day at the front and in the rear, every such day, with results, brings our victory closer.”
But every day brings reports of only modest success against Russia’s belts of minefields and tank traps. “They are making incremental gains, but we knew this was going to be a tough fight,” said Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon’s deputy spokeswoman.
“I’ve been speaking to officials on both sides of the Atlantic here since the start of this counteroffensive, and for many of them, their assessment of Ukraine’s chances has changed markedly in recent weeks,” Jim Sciutto, CNN’s chief national security correspondent, reported yesterday. “Sobering is the word.”
Many are echoing an assessment offered months ago by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley that Ukraine is unlikely to make dramatic gains this year.
‘PLEASE KEEP BELIEVE IN OUR VICTORY’: In a new poll, a majority of Americans, 55%, oppose additional funding for military assistance to Ukraine, while 51% said the U.S. has already done enough to help Ukraine’s war effort. If U.S. and Western support begins to flag, it could doom Zelensky’s ambitions to expel Russia from every inch of Ukrainian territory.
“Please keep believe in our victory. This is also a very important factor of our joint action now,” said former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in an interview on CNN. “And please don’t repeat the Russian narrative that Russia is stopping the Ukrainian armed forces and winning the war.”
“Anybody sitting in the movies hall watching the Barbie or Oppenheimer with a popcorn and then want to see the Ukrainian counteroffensive, this is not the case,” Poroshenko said, repeating a common talking point that wars don’t play out like Hollywood movies. “We had a very successful offensive operation in Kharkiv region, success in Kherson, but now can you imagine that we have 32 kilometers of the minefield? Thirty-two kilometers … How we can go through these types of things?”
“We need enough weapons. We need a long-range missile. We need jet fighters to protect the Ukrainian sky when Russia has air dominance because no NATO tactics prescribed their offensive operation without air defense and without jet fighters,” he said.
‘NOBODY WANTS TO SEE THEM STRUGGLE’: The White House continues to insist it will back Ukraine for as long as it takes, even as it admits the counteroffensive is not going according to plan.
“I think every ally, every partner, every nation, and there’s more than 50 of them, including, of course, the United States, that are involved in supporting Ukraine, feels responsible for helping Ukraine be successful on the battlefield. Nobody wants to see them struggle. And even they admit that they’re struggling and they’re not doing as well as they’d like,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby on CNN.
“We’re all going to be dedicated to continuing to help them get what they need. And if that means more training, then more training it will be. If that means more capabilities, then more capabilities it will be. We’re all in this together. We all want to see them succeed,” he said, promising the next round of military assistance will focus on what Ukraine needs to break through the Russian front lines.
“You’re going to see another security assistance package coming very, very soon,” Kirby said. “What you’ll see in that package is very much similar capabilities to what we’ve been providing the last five, six, seven packages: mine-clearing equipment, artillery ammunition, HIMARS for the rocket systems, I mean, all those kinds of things that we know that they’re going to need to be more successful.”
“How far they’ll get, and where that will be, what kind of breakthrough they might be able to achieve, I don’t think anybody can say right now,” Kirby said. “But we’ve got to make sure that we’re staying behind them and supporting them.”
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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or or on X @jamiejmcintyre
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DOD WATCHDOG: TALIBAN TAKING CREDIT FOR US AID: According to the latest quarterly report to Congress from the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the Taliban is increasingly controlling and taking credit for the billions of dollars in humanitarian assistance countries have been pouring into Afghanistan.
“The United States remains the largest donor to the Afghan people, having appropriated more than $2.35 billion since the Taliban takeover in August 2021,” the report says while citing an analysis conducted by the U.S. Institute of Peace about how the Taliban is interfering with the provision of humanitarian aid.
“The Taliban are ‘pushing for ever-increasing degrees of credit and control over the delivery of aid,’” the report says, noting that most donor funding is routed through the U.N. “According to multiple U.N. officials across different agencies, the Taliban have effectively infiltrated and influenced most UN-managed assistance programming,” and are “pushing for ever-increasing degrees of credit and control over the delivery of aid.”
“Despite Taliban promises made since gaining power in August 2021 to be more inclusive, counter terrorism, respect human rights, and not pose a security threat to the region, the U.N. says that the Taliban ‘shows no signs of bending to pressure for reform or compromise… They are unchecked by any meaningful political opposition,’” the report concludes.
CHINA INFILTRATING THE ‘INTERNET OF THINGS’: The leaders of the bipartisan House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party are asking the FCC to look into the potential threat of Chinese infiltration of devices ranging from cars to refrigerators that are connected to the Internet.
Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and ranking member Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) cited an incident last year in which Russian agents stole $5 million worth of John Deere tractors from a Ukrainian dealership. “The vehicles possessed cellular modules developed in the West, remote operators were able to shut down the tractors using the internet, leaving the Russian culprits stuck.”
“Connectivity modules are used in a wide variety of devices throughout the U.S., from consumer ‘smart devices’, to electric cars, to U.S. telecom networks regulated by the FCC. Serving as the link between the device and the internet, these modules have the capacity both to brick the device and to access the data flowing from the device to the web server that runs each device,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel. “As a result, if the CCP can control the module, it may be able to effectively exfiltrate data or shut down the IoT device. This raises particularly grave concerns in the context of critical infrastructure and any type of sensitive data.”
Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi questioned whether cellular modules made by Chinese companies such as Quectel and Fibocom pose a national security risk.
SELECT COMMITTEE ON CHINA INVESTIGATING SECURITY THREAT POSED BY MODULES THAT CAN SHUT DOWN VEHICLES
The Rundown
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Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 9
9 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual conference, including a session: “Future of U.S. Defense and Strategic Cooperation.” RSVP to [email protected]
9:20 a.m. 700 Monroe St. SW, Huntsville, Alabama — National Defense Industrial Association “Space & Missile Defense Symposium,” day two, with Coast Guard Rear Adm. Sean Regan, director of training, exercises, and wargaming at the U.S. Northern Command; Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, director of the Army Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office; Keith Krapels, director of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command Technical Center; Dayna Ise, deputy director at the NASA Science and Technology Office; Lt. Gen. Dan Karbler, SMDC commanding general; Army Command Sgt. Maj. John Foley; and Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering https://smdsymposium.org/registration
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Putin and the War in Ukraine,” with exiled Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar, founding editor of TV Rain and author of War and Punishment; and Shane Harris, Washington Post intelligence and national security reporter https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Jan. 6 indictment and American democracy,” with federal Judge J. Michael Luttig; and David Shipley, Washington Post editorial page editor https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
THURSDAY | AUGUST 10
8 a.m. 2941 Fairview Park Dr., Falls Church, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club “Integrating for Mission Success Forum,” with Schuyler Moore, CTO of the U.S. Central Command; and Bob Ritchie, CTO of SAIC https://potomacofficersclub.com/events
9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Reflections on Six Decades of Service to the Nation,” with Navy Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence; and retired Navy Adm. William Studeman, former deputy director of the CIA and director of the National Security Agency https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
9 a.m. 700 Monroe St. SW, Huntsville, Alabama — National Defense Industrial Association “Space & Missile Defense Symposium,” day three with Gen. Charles Hamilton, commanding general of the U.S. Army Materiel Command; and Lt. Cmdr. Joe Mroszczyk, commander of the first Multi-Domain Task Force Missile Defense Executive Board https://smdsymposium.org/registration/
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion of: Russia, China and the Revisionist Assault on the Western Liberal International Order, with author Gerlinde Groitl, assistant professor of international politics and trans-Atlantic relations at the University of Regensburg, Germany https://www.hudson.org/events/russia-china-revisionist-assault
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “China’s Growing Role in the Middle East: Regional Geopolitics and U.S. Policy,” with Chas Freeman, former assistant defense secretary for international security affairs; Abdullah Baabood, visiting professor at Waseda University; Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Maria Papageorgiou, associate lecturer at University College London; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on new report, Extending Deterrence by Detection: The Case for Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems into the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, with co-author Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; co-author Travis Sharp, CSBA director of defense budget studies; co-author Tim Sadov, CSBA research assistant; Whitney McNamara, CSBA nonresident senior fellow; and Sameer Lalwani, CSBA nonresident senior fellow https://csbaonline.org/about/events/report-release-webinar
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual conversation: “A Front Row View of the NSA: Reflections from Gen. Paul Nakasone,” with Glenn Gerstell, CSIS senior adviser and former NSA general counsel; April Doss, NSA general counsel; and Tom Bossert, president, Trinity Cyber, Inc., and former White House homeland security adviser https://www.csis.org/events/front-row-view-nsa-reflections-general-paul-m-nakasone
2 p.m. — Atlantic Council Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center event: “A conversation with Alicia Barcena, Mexico’s newly confirmed Secretary of Foreign Affairs,” with Jason Marczak, senior director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-alicia-barcena
TUESDAY | AUGUST 15
8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Bob Hale and Ellen Lord, chairman and vice chair Congressional Commission on Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution Reform. RSVP: Thom Shanker at [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Every ally, every partner, every nation, and there’s more than 50 of them, including, of course, the United States, that are involved in supporting Ukraine, feels responsible for helping Ukraine be successful on the battlefield. Nobody wants to see them struggle … So, we’re all going to be dedicated to continuing to help them get what they need. And if that means more training, then more training it will be. If that means more capabilities, then more capabilities it will be. We’re all in this together. We all want to see them succeed.” NSC spokesman John Kirby, on Ukraine’s struggling counteroffensive.