No, Gavin Newsom, the case against Biden is not ‘crumbling’
Jack Elbaum
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Last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) posted on social media an article titled “GOP’s crumbling case against Biden on crime, immigration and inflation.” Newsom wrote that it contained “facts you won’t see on Fox News tonight … thanks to @POTUS.”
But a closer look reveals those “facts” are much less clear than Newsom lets on.
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Let’s start with crime. The Axios piece reads: “Violent crime rates are generally down across the board, though they’re still higher than 2019 levels.” What’s the proof? Well, a study spanning 37 cities found that homicide was down 9% relative to the same period last year. But the same study finds homicide is up 24% since 2019. It also shows that every category of violent crime, with the exception of domestic violence, has gone up since 2019.
I should also note the crime critique was not necessarily focused on aggregate statistics for the whole country but on certain major cities such as Chicago, Washington, New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. And the data from Chicago show sexual assault is up 4%, robbery is up 14%, aggravated battery is up 5%, and vehicle theft is up 121%. When it comes to Washington, every category of violent crime has spiked in the past year, for a total 38% increase. In San Fransisco, homicide has risen by 23.1%, and robbery has spiked by 13%, but assault and rape are down by 5.1% and 20.8%, respectively. In New York, crime is down relative to last year but up significantly (37.4%) relative to two years ago.
In other words, the short-term crime trend is a mixed bag. However, rates are still considerably higher than before the nationwide spike occurred in 2020.
It is doubtful these numbers, whether positive or negative, have anything to with President Joe Biden’s policies, but Newsom seemed to think they do, which is why it is important to address.
Next, on border crossings, the article says they “dropped to the lowest level in over two years in June.” This claim, while technically true, needs significant context. Namely, according to data released by Customs and Border Protection, the number of encounters (which includes all apprehensions, inadmissibles, and expulsions) at the southern border is still 95% higher than it was during President Donald Trump’s last full month in office. The idea we would look at a temporary drop as evidence there is no longer any case against Biden’s border policy is quite odd.
While the Biden administration’s new, more restrictive border policy is commendable, the longer-term consequences of it remain to be seen. There is no getting around the significant and prolonged spike in border apprehensions once Biden took office, which suggests there is little to celebrate.
Last, we have the economic claims, which focus on inflation. But as I have written about before, it is simply inaccurate to attribute the fall in inflation to any of Biden’s policies. In fact, he helped to exacerbate inflation through several multitrillion-dollar spending packages, which were passed even after prices began to rise. Inflation has declined primarily because of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve — an independent body having nothing to do with Biden’s actions.
Also, to say that “inflation is down” sometimes acts as a rhetorical sleight of hand because inflation is cumulative. As such, prices are still going up, just at a slower rate. Since 2020, prices have gone up 17.5%, and since 2021, they have risen 12.3% — a faster pace than wages have gone up, meaning real wages have actually declined.
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When it comes to the economy, there is almost no subject on which the Biden administration does not lie or mislead on a consistent basis. There is a reason why only 38% approve of his handling of the economy — resulting in a minus-19.3-point spread on the subject. It is not because people are feeling great about the economy, as the piece suggests, but rather because people are not feeling great at all, as most data suggest.
In short, the facts Axios includes in its article are incomplete at best. And the case against Biden is not “crumbling” at all — no matter how much Newsom wishes that it was.
Jack Elbaum is a summer 2023 Washington Examiner fellow.