Biden relents on cluster munitions for Ukraine. Will ATACMS be next?
Jamie McIntyre
WE’VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE: The pattern is all too familiar to Ukraine. The Biden administration refuses to provide what Ukraine insists it needs to win, including tanks, F-16s, Patriot missiles, and in the latest case cluster bombs, only to relent when Ukraine’s battlefield position becomes more dire and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s red lines turn out to be bluster.
Today, as part of an $800 million arms package, President Joe Biden has approved the inclusion of thousands of cluster munitions in the form of artillery shells that can be fired from the 155 mm howitzers the United States has already provided Ukraine.
The M864 artillery shells contain 72 submunitions, or “bomblets,” roughly the size of grenades, and instead of having a single impact point, they can blanket an area larger than four football fields. The cluster munitions, called DPICMs for “dual-purpose improved conventional munitions,” will not only boost Ukraine’s firepower as it attempts to breach minefields and clear dug-in Russian troops from their extensive trench network, but they will also compensate for Ukraine’s shortage of conventional artillery rounds.
“I think what DPICMs bring to a battlefield is anti-armor and anti-personnel capability,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing. “So, essentially, it can be either loaded with shape charges, which are armor-penetrating, or they can be loaded with fragmentary munitions, which are anti-personnel — so clearly a capability that would be useful in any type of offensive operations.”
ZELENSKY SAYS HE WARNED LEADERS WESTERN ‘FOOT-DRAGGING’ ON WEAPONS WOULD SLOW COUNTEROFFENSIVE
THE ‘DUD RATE’ PROBLEM: The reason that more than 120 countries have banned the weapon, and the U.S. has a law restricting their production, use, or transfer, is that what’s known as the “dud rate,” the percentage of submunitions that fail to detonate and therefore pose a long-term threat to both civilians and friendly troops on the battlefield.
The U.S. law specifies that to be used or exported, cluster munitions must have a “dud rate” that does not exceed 1%, but none of the bombs in the current stockpile meet that standard, the Pentagon admitted.
“We have multiple variants of DPICMs in our stocks, and the ones that we are considering providing would not include older variants with dud rates that are higher than 2.35%,” Ryder said. “We are aware of reports out there from several decades ago that indicate that certain 155 mm DPICMs have higher dud rates, so we would be carefully selecting rounds with lower dud rates for which we have recent testing data.”
The Ukrainians point out that the weapons would be most employed in areas that have been heavily mined by Russian forces, so when the fighting stops, those areas would already have to be extensively de-mined.
“I would note that the Russians have already been employing cluster munitions on the battlefield, many which included very high dud rates reportedly,” Ryder said. “And so, you know, yes, we’ll just leave it at that.”
NEXT: THE PUSH FOR ATACMS: For months, Republicans in the House and Senate Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees have been calling for Biden to send the cluster munitions to Ukraine.
Now there is a bipartisan push in Congress to provide Ukraine with the last piece of the puzzle to give Ukraine the ability to destroy ammunition depots and command centers deep behind Russian front lines.
Last month, Republicans and Democrats introduced a House resolution urging the Biden administration to provide Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, “swiftly,” which could hit targets anywhere in Russian-occupied Ukraine, including Crimea.
“By not giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to win this war, the administration is prolonging the conflict and costing countless Ukrainian lives,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“Currently, Russia’s arsenal of long-range missiles largely outnumbers that of Ukraine, putting Ukraine at a significant disadvantage. I applaud the United Kingdom and France for providing Ukraine with long-range missiles and believe the United States should follow suit,” said Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA). “We must provide the Ukrainians with what they need to win. This is war. The side that makes the decision to win is the side that will win.”
UKRAINE’S SLOW-MOTION OFFENSIVE AND FRUSTRATIONS OF NEEDING TO BE MODEL GOOD GUYS
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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference at 7 a.m. Eastern time to preview next week’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
After meeting yesterday with delegations from Turkey, Finland, and Sweden, Stoltenberg conceded that it will not be possible to invite Sweden to join the alliance formally at the summit, as he had hoped. But Stoltenberg said he’s close to getting the next best thing, a firm pledge from Turkey that will lift its objection to Sweden’s membership.
“What is possible and what we are all working to achieve is a positive decision at the summit, where Türkiye makes clear that they are ready to ratify,” Stoltenberg said after the Thursday negotiating session. “My main ambition is now to get this agreed by the summit. Of course, there’s no guarantee, but we are working hard. We had a good meeting today. We are making progress. And I’m certain that we will continue to make progress over the weekend.”
Stoltenberg is scheduled to sit down with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Vilnius on Monday. Erdogan has been irate about Quran-burning protests in Sweden, which Stoltenberg argued have been instigated by pro-Russian groups seeking to kill Sweden’s chances.
“The only people who benefit from these provocations are those who want to divide NATO. Any further delay in Sweden’s membership would be welcomed by the PKK and President Putin,” Stoltenberg said. “Sweden has delivered on the commitments it made under the trilateral memorandum. Sweden has amended its Constitution and introduced new anti-terrorist legislation, removed restrictions on arms exports to Türkiye.”
500 DAYS OF WAR: Tomorrow will mark 500 days since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Ukrainian forces are reported to be methodically degrading Russian manpower and logistics assets as they prepare for an eventual thrust to break through Russia’s heavily mined and reinforced front lines.
“We would all like to see the counteroffensive accomplished in a shorter period of time, but there’s reality,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with ABC News’s Martha Raddatz. “We are advancing. We are not stuck in one place.”
“Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive activities in the Bakhmut, western Donetsk, and western Zaporizhia directions,” according to the Institute for the Study of War’s latest battlefield assessment. “Geolocated footage posted on July 6 shows that Ukrainian troops have advanced towards the western outskirts of Klishchiivka, about 5 km southwest of Bakhmut.”
Meanwhile, British intelligence reported that Russia has been forced to pull troops from its far-flung borders to reinforce areas where they suspect Ukraine will attack, including the Zaporizhzhia region.
“In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the 58th Combined Arms Army is defending heavily entrenched lines; normally it secures Russia’s volatile Caucasus region,” the British Defense Ministry said in a Twitter update. “Around Bakhmut, the defense is now largely formed around airborne regiments normally stationed in western Russia, who normally act as an elite rapid reaction force in case of tensions with NATO.”
RUSSIA ‘FORTIFYING FOR BATTLE’ IN UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
RUSSIAN HARASSMENT CONTINUES: For a second day, Russian warplanes flew dangerously close to U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones carrying out anti-Islamic State missions in Syria.
“Russian aircraft dropped flares in front of the drones and flew dangerously close, endangering the safety of all aircraft involved,” according to a release from the U.S. Air Forces Central Command.
“These events represent another example of unprofessional and unsafe actions by Russian air forces operating in Syria, which threaten the safety of both Coalition and Russian forces,” the statement said. “We urge Russian forces in Syria to cease this reckless behavior and adhere to the standards of behavior expected of a professional air force so we can resume our focus on the enduring defeat of ISIS.”
A photo released by the Air Force showed Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighter plane aircraft employ flares in the flight path of a U.S. MQ-9 drone flying over Syria yesterday morning.
IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SEIZES COMMERCIAL SHIP IN ARABIAN GULF
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s slow-motion offensive and frustrations of needing to be model good guys
Washington Examiner: Zelensky says he warned leaders Western ‘foot-dragging’ on weapons would slow counteroffensive
Washington Examiner: Russia ‘fortifying for battle’ in Ukrainian nuclear power plant
Washington Examiner: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seizes commercial ship in Arabian Gulf
Washington Examiner: House panel studying threats by China to the US spurs rare bipartisan cooperation
Washington Examiner: Democrats push Pentagon for answers on possible civilian casualty in May drone strike
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why the UFO whistleblowers are getting a mixed reaction
AP: Russia’s war in Ukraine reaches the 500-day mark
AP: Why The U.S. Is Willing To Send Ukraine Cluster Munitions Now
New York Times: Prigozhin Is Said to Be in Russia, as Wagner Mystery Deepens
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Has Big Plans To Make Putin Pay And End The War
Reuters: Inside The Subsea Cable Firm Secretly Helping America Take On China
Bloomberg: U.S. Says Beijing’s Moves ‘Risky’ As Chinese Ships ‘Swarm’ Sea
Defense One: China’s Commercial Space Ventures Pose a Variety of Threats, DOD Officials Say
Defense News: After Washington’s Refueling Woes, U.S. Navy Eyes New Plans For Carriers
USNI News: Marine Corps Personnel Change Was Key to New Force Design, Says CMC Berger
Stars and Stripes: Marine Corps F-35C Stealth Fighters Cross The Pacific To Australia For First Time
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Navy Intel Brief Urges Robust Challenge to China
Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘We’ve Been Doing It Wrong’: SPACECOM’s Shaw Pushes New View of Operations
Breaking Defense: GCAP Fighter Design to Fly Within 5 Years, As BAE Eyes Potential Export Market
Air & Space Forces Magazine: C-17 Airmen Try Out New Chemical Warfare Gear
Stars and Stripes: Japan’s Defense Ministry Reports Decade-Old PFAS Chemical Spills at US Air Base in Tokyo
New York Times: Toxic Arsenal Nears Its End, Decades Later
19fortyfive.com: Is Iran Getting Ready To Start A War With Joe Biden?
Justsecurity.org: Why President Biden Should Not Transfer Prohibited Cluster Bombs to Ukraine
The Cipher Brief: U.S.-Iran Stand-Off Hints of Old ‘Tanker War’
The Cipher Brief: A Biography of an ‘American Traitor’: A Biography of an ‘American Traitor’
Forbes: Opinion: The Navy’s Next-Generation Destroyer Looks Unaffordable. The Service Needs To Keep Improving What It Already Has.
Calendar
FRIDAY | JULY 7
7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Assessing the Hiroshima Summit,” with Keiichi Ono, Japanese senior deputy minister for foreign affairs https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-hiroshima-summit
1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual discussion: “The Hunt for Spies: Counterintelligence Efforts inside the U.S.,” with Mirriam-Grace MacIntyre, executive director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center https://www.thecipherbrief.com
MONDAY | JULY 10
6:55 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda joint press conference ahead of the Vilnius leaders’ summit. Livestream: https://www.nato.int
12 p.m 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person event: “Building the Navy for the Indo-Pacific,” with Emma Salisbury, associate fellow at the Council on Geostrategy. RSVP: [email protected]
TUESDAY | JULY 11
4 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — President Joe Biden attends the two-day NATO leaders’ summit July 11-12 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth, with author Ian Garner and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]
10:15 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace hybrid in-person and virtual event: “The Growing Importance of NATO’s Indo-Pacific Partners,” with Kevin Rudd, Australian ambassador to the U.S.; Tamaki Tsukada, deputy chief of mission, Japanese Embassy; Bede Corry, New Zealand ambassador to the U.S.; Choon-goo Kim, deputy chief of mission, South Korean Embassy; and Karl Eikenberry, Senior Military Advisory Group, U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.usip.org/events/growing-importance-natos-indo-pacific-partners
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion of new report: Beyond Precision: Maintaining America’s Strike Advantage in Great Power Conflict, with author Tyler Hacker, CSBA research fellow, and CSBA President and CEO Thomas Mahnken https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
WEDNESDAY | JULY 12
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Army Gen. Randy George to be chief of staff of the Army https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — Hudson Institute China Center presentation: “China Prepares for War: A Timeline,” with Kyle Bass, founder and chief investment officer, Hayman Capital Management, and member, China Center Advisory Board; Miles Yu, senior fellow and director, China Center; and Paula Dobriansky, senior fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project, Harvard University, and member, China Center Advisory Board https://www.eventbrite.com/e/china-prepares-for-war-a-timeline
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security and Enforcement hearing: “Protecting the U.S. Homeland: Fighting the Flow of Fentanyl from the Southwest Border” https://www.youtube.com/channel
2:30 p.m. 216 Hart — Senate Intelligence Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command and Michael Casey to be director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | JULY 13
7 p.m. 390 Cannon — House select committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Risky Business: Growing Peril for American Companies in China,” with testimony from Piper Lounsbury, chief research and development officer, Strategy Risks; Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer and managing director, China Beige Book International; and Desmond Shum, author of Red Roulette: An Insider’s story of Wealth, Power, Corruption and Vengeance in Today’s China https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee-activity/live
FRIDAY | JULY 21
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: “Acquisition for Decision Advantage: The Role of the CDAO in Scaling Software Solutions,” with Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, Department of Defense; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group, and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/acquisition-decision-advantage
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Putin is not interested in an off-ramp. He wants to achieve the goals of the special military operation. … He has a long time horizon. He is willing on behalf of the Russian people to impose enormous costs on Russia to achieve those objectives. … He can’t pull back now. He doesn’t have the option. … That system that he’s in that he’s constructed won’t allow that to happen. He won’t survive that.” John Sullivan, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, in a Washington Post Live discussion on Thursday