With Russia on the offensive in Ukraine, US on the defensive over the supply of more advanced weapons
Jamie McIntyre
‘TOUGH BATTLES ARE GOING ON’: Over the weekend, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine attempted to regain some measure of battlefield initiative with small-scale offensives that have resulted in modest gains and heavy fighting.
“In eastern Ukraine, both offensive and defensive actions continue. Our units are moving in the Bakhmut direction, and the enemy continues to lead an attack in the Lyman, Avdiivsky and Maryinsky directions,” said the Ukrainian General Staff on its Facebook page. “The enemy tries to push our troops out of occupied positions, but gets a hard cut. The tough battles are going on.”
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Sunday the situation on the battlefield is “quite complicated” and “hot everywhere,” according to the New York Times, and said this morning that Ukraine had recaptured another 10.9 square miles in southern Ukraine over the past week and that “fierce fighting is taking place there.”
The relatively slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, now almost a month old, comes as the Biden administration continues to face questions about the time it’s taking to get Ukraine the weapons it says it needs to succeed against a well-dug-in foe.
“You can hardly blame them for talking to the world about additional support, whether that’s in quantity or quality of capabilities,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby on Friday. “They’ve been under attack for 16 months. They still have tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on their sovereign territory, and their troops and their people are still being killed in the most wanton, reckless, vicious way.”
“I don’t have anything to speak to in terms of new capabilities that might or might not be provided to Ukraine. I would just tell you that, as we’ve said from the very beginning, we work in lockstep with the Ukrainians dang near every day about the kind of capabilities that they — that they need.”
RUSSIAN SPIES ORDERED TO ‘ASSASSINATE’ PRIGOZHIN, UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF SAYS
ZALUZHNY: IT ‘PISSES ME OFF’: In an interview published in the Washington Post Friday, top Ukrainian Gen. Valery Zaluzhny expressed deep frustration that he lacks the firepower to effectively counter Russia’s advantage in airpower and artillery supplies.
It “pisses me off,” Zaluzhny told the newspaper in response to people who express disappointment that Ukraine’s battlefield gains aren’t happening faster. “It’s not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood,” he said last week. “Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all.”
Specifically, Zaluzhny says he’s being asked to do something NATO forces would never do, mount a major offensive without close air support for his troops on the ground. The F-16s he says he needs to keep Russia’s modern Su-35s at bay are months away, at best.
“I do not need 120 planes. I’m not going to threaten the whole world. A very limited number would be enough,” Zaluzhny said. “But they are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation. It’s like we’d go on the offensive with bows and arrows.”
Zaluzhny also confirmed that several Western armored fighting vehicles and German-made Leopard tanks were destroyed in the early weeks of the campaign. “We didn’t get Leopards to ride in parades or have politicians or celebrities take pictures with them. They came here for the war. And a Leopard on the battlefield is not a Leopard but a target.”
UKRAINE’S TOP GENERAL SAYS US ISN’T GIVING WEAPONS NEEDED FOR SUCCESSFUL COUNTEROFFENSIVE
MILLEY: MORE WEAPONS UNDER CONSIDERATION: In a speech and Q-and-A session at the National Press Club Friday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said he is in “frequent” contact with Zaluzhny and is well aware of what he says he needs.
“It’s not Milley who decides whether we get planes or not,” Zaluzhny said in the Washington Post interview. “It’s just that while that decision is being made, in the obvious situation, a lot of people die every day — a lot. Just because no decision has been made yet.”
“I’m not going to get out in front of decision-making by the president. That would be a decision by the president,” Milley told the Washington Post while confirming the U.S. is considering several additional capabilities, including longer-range ATACMS precision missiles and cluster munitions to help make up for Ukraine’s disadvantage in artillery fire. The dual-purpose improved conventional munition, or DPICM, is an artillery shell that contains submunitions that can be deadly on the battlefield.
“So we have been thinking about DPICM for a long time. The Ukrainians have asked for it. Other European countries have provided some of that. The Russians are using it,” Milley said. “So yes, of course, there’s a decision-making process ongoing.’
“I would give you the same answer [for] ATACMS, F-16s, or anything else. It is in a constant review process,” Milley said. “We consider all kinds of options and one of my jobs … is to tee up an option for the president, any president, and lay out what that option is and what the cost, risks, and benefits are, and then give them a recommendation.”
US THINKING ABOUT PROVIDING UKRAINE WITH CLUSTER MUNITIONS, MILLEY SAYS
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING LATER THIS WEEK: The White House announced yesterday that President Joe Biden will depart Friday for a three-nation trip to Europe that will include visits to the United Kingdom, Lithuania, and Finland.
“President Biden will first travel to London, United Kingdom for engagements with King Charles III and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to further strengthen the close relationship between our nations,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement. “The President will then travel to Vilnius, Lithuania, from July 11- 12 to attend the 74th NATO Summit. On July 13, President Biden will visit Helsinki, Finland, for a U.S.-Nordic Leaders Summit.”
Biden has no public events scheduled for today.
McCAUL: AFGHANISTAN REPORT RELEASE INSUFFICIENT: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) is blasting the State Department for failing to completely declassify the administration after-action report on the 2021 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the chaos surrounding the effort to evacuate Afghan partners after the fall of Kabul.
“There is no reason not to produce a declassified version of the full report, as much of it is marked ‘Sensitive but Unclassified’ or ‘Unclassified,’” McCaul said after the State Department released a 24-page version of the report labeled “for public release.”
“This is another blatant attempt to hide the Biden administration’s culpability in the chaotic and deadly evacuation from Afghanistan,” said McCaul. “On April 25, I called upon the State Department to declassify its After-Action Review on Afghanistan within 60 days. The department failed to fulfill that request, instead choosing to release only a small portion of that document – 24 of 87 pages that were already unclassified – and completely omitted the narrative which forms the bulk of the report.”
SPREADING THE BLAME: The report faults the decisions of both former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden for undermining “the viability of the Afghan government,” saying that “during both administrations there was insufficient senior-level consideration of worst-case scenarios and how quickly those might follow.”
It also cited “predictions varied, up until almost the time Kabul fell” that the “Afghan government and its forces could hold the city for weeks, if not months,” and noted that Biden officials feared that accelerating planning for a full-scale evacuation might trigger the very outcome they were trying to avoid.
“Crisis preparation and planning were inhibited to a degree by concerns about the signals that might be sent, especially anything that might suggest the United States had lost confidence in the Afghan government and thus contribute to its collapse,” the report said.
The report also blamed the Trump administration for what it called “a significant backlog” in the Special Immigrant Visa process, which ground to a halt during the COVID-19 pandemic. “That administration made no senior-level or interagency effort to address the backlog or consider options for other at risk Afghans despite its commitment to a military withdrawal.”
WHAT GIVES? McCaul is also upset that his committee was not informed that Robert Malley, the Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran, had his security clearance suspended and was placed on unpaid leave earlier this year for potentially mishandling classified documents.
“These reports raise serious concerns both regarding Malley’s conduct and whether the State Department misled Congress and the American public,” McCaul said in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “The Department’s failure to inform Congress of this matter demonstrates at best a lack of candor, and at worst represents deliberate and potentially unlawful misinformation,” the chairman continued.
“Given the gravity of the situation, it is imperative that the Department expeditiously provide a full and transparent accounting of the circumstances surrounding Special Envoy Malley’s clearance suspension and investigation and the Department’s statements to Congress regarding Special Envoy Malley,” McCaul wrote.
LEAD IRAN DEAL NEGOTIATOR ON LEAVE WITH ‘SECURITY CLEARANCE UNDER REVIEW’
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pentagon celebrates 50 years of ‘all volunteer’ Armed Forces
Washington Examiner: US thinking about providing Ukraine with cluster munitions, Milley says
Washington Examiner: Ukraine’s top general says US isn’t giving weapons needed for successful counteroffensive
Washington Examiner: Russian spies ordered to ‘assassinate’ Prigozhin, Ukrainian intelligence chief says
Washington Examiner: Biden administration was unprepared for worst-case scenario in Afghanistan withdrawal, review concludes
Washington Examiner: US remains ‘deeply concerned’ about Wagner activity in African countries
Washington Examiner: European Union to ‘de-risk and diversify’ from China in rebuff of Xi Jinping
Washington Examiner: US to hold more than 180 citizenship ceremonies over Fourth of July holiday
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Russia’s economic decline is irreversible
Washington Examiner: Opinion: France burns as unresolved racial tensions boil over
Politico: The Pentagon Policy Bill’s Next Big Stumbling Block: Kevin McCarthy
Breaking Defense: HAC-D Chair Throws Cold Water on New F-35 Engine, Won’t Talk DOD Supplemental Until Budget Set
Washington Post: House Republicans scared to lose majority push back on extreme agenda
AP: Russia launches the first drone strike on Kyiv in 12 days
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine’s Zelensky Says He Will Beat Russia by Holding On to His Humanity
AP: Israel targets West Bank militant stronghold with drones, hundreds of troops, killing 5 Palestinians
Reuters: Israel to Buy 25 More F-35 Stealth Jets in $3 Billion Deal
Military.com: Top military court rules troops don’t have right to unanimous verdicts
Air & Space Forces Magazine: State Department Greenlights F-35 Sale for Czech Republic
The War Zone: Skunk Works Cryptically Teases NGAD-Like Aircraft Silhouette
DefenseScoop: Gen. Milley anticipates new ‘Joint Futures’ organization will come to fruition
CNN: America’s Front Line of Missile Defense Is Straining Under the Demand of Global Threats
Washington Post: Uniforms? Check. Motto? Check. Now the Space Force Needs an Identity.
Breaking Defense: Space Force Chief Seeks to ‘Shift Mindset’ to Defend Joint Force on the Ground
Air Force Times: Physiological Issues in Flight Are Going Down, But Still Persist
Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-52s Keep Up Surge in Bomber Activity over Korean Peninsula
Washington Post: Treasury secretary to make first trip to China seeking better relations
AP: US recommends Americans reconsider traveling to China due to arbitrary law enforcement, exit bans
Politico: Pentagon to Filmmakers: We Won’t Help You If You Kowtow To China
Air & Space Forces Magazine: 3,700 Airmen No Longer Rate Special Duty Assignment Pay
Air & Space Forces Magazine: CMSAF Bass Explains What Led to Her Recent ‘Standards’ Memo to Airmen
Foreign Policy: Xi’s Schadenfreude Over Moscow’s Mutiny
The Cipher Brief: What Prigozhin’s March Taught Us About Putin’s Russia
The Cipher Brief: Defending Against State-Sponsored Espionage Targeting the U.S. Private Sector is a Team Effort
Calendar
MONDAY | JULY 3
4 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Media briefing at NATO headquarters: “The integration of NATO and national military planning in a new era of collective defense,” with Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee; and Matthew Van Wagenen, SHAPE deputy chief of staff operations Transcript posted on the NATO website https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
TUESDAY | JULY 4 — FEDERAL HOLIDAY
No Daily on Defense published
11:45 a.m. Constitution Ave., between 7th and 17th Sts. NW — National Park Service hosts the National Independence Day Parade, featuring a fife and drum corps, marching bands, floats, military units and giant balloons, and equestrian and drill teams https://july4thparade.com/
5 p.m. Pennsylvania Ave. between 12th and 13th Sts. NW — First-ever “Fourth of July in the District Concert,” hosted by Office of Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser https://www.eventbrite.com/e/4th-of-july-in-the-district-concert
8 p.m. U.S. Capitol West Lawn — National Park Service, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the Department of the Army, the Boeing Company, American Airlines and PBS host annual “A Capitol Fourth Concert,” with actor Alfonso Ribeiro; R&B group “Boyz II Men”; rock band “Chicago”; singer Belinda Carlisle; singer and songwriter Babyface; country duo Maddie & Tae; actor and songwriter Charles Esten; soprano singer Renee Fleming; actress and singer Adrienne Warren; actress Ruthie Ann Miles; National Symphony Orchestra Pops Conductor Jack Everly; the Northwell Nurses Choir; and the Broadway cast of A Beautiful Noise, the Neil Diamond Musical. General admission gates open at 3 p.m. Livestream at http://www.pbs.org/a-capitol-fourth/home
WEDNESDAY | JULY 5
TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to a military entrance processing station in Fort Meade, Maryland where he will swear in approximately 100 new recruits, to mark the 50th anniversary of America’s all-volunteer military. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release
11 a.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy toward Taiwan and China,” with former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen; and Susan Gordon, former principal deputy director of national intelligence https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “After Prigozhin, What’s Next for Belarus?” with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus opposition leader; Hanna Liubakova, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/after-prigozhin-whats-next-for-belarus
THURSDAY | JULY 6
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “The 2023 Freedom and Prosperity Indexes, a measurement of freedom and prosperity in 164 countries,” with Dan Negrea, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center; Joseph Lemoine, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center; and Anna Gawel, managing editor of Devex https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/launch
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion of new report: “Repel, Don’t Expel: Strengthening NATO’s Defense and Deterrence in the Baltic States,” with co-author Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the CSIS International Security Program; co-author Sean Monaghan, visiting fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch
10 a.m — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Series event with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
10:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Putin’s Prigozhin problems: How has power shifted in Russia?” with former Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrei Kozyrev; Yevgenia Albats, center associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/putins-prigozhin-problems/
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The European Union’s Enlargement Conundrum,” with Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; R. Daniel Kelemen, nonresident senior associate at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; Ilke Toygur, nonresident senior associate at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Donatienne Ruy, fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/european-unions-enlargement-conundrum
3 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: “Putin’s Hold on Power and Russia’s Future,” with John Sullivan, former U.S. ambassador to Russia https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
FRIDAY | JULY 7
7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Assessing the Hiroshima Summit,” with Keiichi Ono, Japanese senior deputy minister for foreign affairs https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-hiroshima-summit
1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual discussion: “The Hunt for Spies: Counterintelligence Efforts inside the U.S.,” with Mirriam-Grace MacIntyre, executive director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center https://www.thecipherbrief.com
TUESDAY | JULY 11
4 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — President Joe Biden attends the two-day NATO leaders summit July 11-12 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia’s Fascist Youth, with author Ian Garner; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY “So beginning 1 October, my wife and I will turn the chapter and then we’ll figure it out, but right now, we don’t even know where we’re going to live. I told her we could go to Dick’s and get a tent and I’m good with that. I’m good. I’ve lived in a tent before.” Gen. Mark Milley, outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying all he knows about his impending retirement is that he won’t run for public office.