Could Biden actually lose the Democratic race?
Byron York
COULD BIDEN ACTUALLY LOSE THE DEMOCRATIC RACE? A new Fox News poll asked Democratic voters which candidate, Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Marianne Williamson, or an unnamed other, they “would like to see as the Democratic presidential nominee.” The results were 64% for Biden, 17% for Kennedy, and 10% for Williamson. Another 10% was “other, none of the above, or don’t know.”
What does it mean? First of all, Biden’s 64% is not great, but if he can keep a lid on Kennedy’s support, which has not grown in the last couple of months, he has no reason to worry.
But still, there is this concern: If you combine the support for Kennedy, Williamson, and the “others” and “none of the aboves,” about a third of the Democratic electorate does not want Biden to be the party’s 2024 nominee. That is a pretty significant number.
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That raises a question: What if a real challenger entered the Democratic race? A candidate who cannot be dismissed as a kook or a fringe figure or an unnamed “other?” What if a serious Democrat emerged to say, “We all appreciate President Joe Biden’s decades of service to this country. We’re grateful for his leadership in a difficult period in our history. But now it is time to move on to a new generation of leaders, and I ask you to join me in building on President Biden’s achievements to create a stronger future together.”
Something like that. (There are good reasons I am not a Democratic speechwriter.) The idea would be to lavish praise on Biden, and reaffirm the principles on which he has governed, while reminding voters that he is a million years old and possibly unable to serve until 2029, as the next president will be required to do.
That might produce a serious challenge to Biden and a real chance of a new Democratic candidate in the 2024 general election. But who might that candidate be? Well, there are lots of Democrats who want to be president. First, there are the 20-plus candidates from the 2020 Democratic primary race. The leading challenger to Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), is too old himself. But of the others, there is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), and more. Then there is Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who appears to be itching to run for president but has been deterred by the party’s threats of reprisals against any candidate who challenges Biden. There is also Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). (What about Vice President Kamala Harris? Well, she has tied her future to Biden and could not credibly turn on him without angering the voters whose support she would need.)
It just takes one courageous person. Yes, that person would have to face the opposition of the Democratic Party establishment. The party has made a bet that Biden can hobble through the rest of this term and the next. It has made clear there will be no primary debates and no challenges to the president’s reelection intentions.
But people are worried about Biden. Poll after poll after poll has shown that voters doubt whether the 80-year-old president has the physical and mental strength to fulfill his duties as president for six more years. A recent NBC News poll asked voters whether they were concerned about “Joe Biden not having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Fifty-five percent said it was a major concern, and 13% said it was a moderate concern, for a total of 68% who said they were concerned about it.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll last month found that 63% of those surveyed did not think Biden has “the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president.” Sixty-two percent did not think Biden is “in good enough physical health to serve effectively as president.”
Nearly every day brings some new video of Biden appearing confused or shuffling across a stage or stumbling and having difficulty getting up. The president is aging before the nation’s eyes. And yet his party has sent out the message to would-be successors: Back off. Do not challenge the obviously struggling president. Instead, hope that he can make it until 2029.
As he is with every political discussion, former President Donald Trump is a factor in this. Biden has apparently convinced himself, and some in his party, that having defeated Trump in 2020, he is the only man who can defeat Trump again in 2024. But that simply does not address the obvious problem of Biden’s decline and the unavoidable fact that that decline will continue and might speed up. Entirely aside from any Trump considerations, the Democratic Party needs to consider seriously whether its standard-bearer in 2024 should be an 82-year-old man who is experiencing physical and cognitive decline.
By the way — that doesn’t mean Biden has dementia or that he will wander around the White House looking for his bedroom. It doesn’t mean he won’t have moments where he is sharp enough to do his work. But it does mean that he is increasingly unsuited for the most mentally and physically demanding 24/7 job in the country.
The Democrats who support Kennedy or Williamson are saying there is a problem here. Do they actually, seriously think Kennedy or Williamson should be president of the United States? Or are they saying they really, really want a candidate other than Biden? The answer is probably the latter.
If any mainstream Democrat is bold enough to jump in, time is passing, and failure is a real possibility. He or she would definitely face the wrath of Democratic Party officialdom. But they might win support from the party that really matters: the voters.
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