Both parties fall short of magic 270 number in first Electoral College projections
Cami Mondeaux
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Sabato’s Crystal Ball is out with its first projections for the 2024 Electoral College vote, giving Democrats an early lead over Republicans but showing both parties short of the 270 votes needed to secure the presidency.
The ratings determine which states are likely to lean Democratic or Republican in the 2024 election, with initial predictions showing Democrats with at least 260 electoral votes compared to 235 for Republicans. That means the presidential election is expected to be another highly competitive race that will come down to these four swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
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The ratings are based on the assumption of a likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in 2024, as both candidates are the current front-runners for their respective parties. Each state is broken down into whether it’s deemed “safe” for either party, “likely” or “leaning” toward either party, or a complete toss-up.
Democrats have an early advantage and are expected to rake in at least 191 “safe” electoral votes across 14 states and Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, Republicans have 122 across 19 states, according to the map.
However, when factoring in states that are “likely” to go toward either party, that margin closes significantly: Democrats with 221 and Republicans with 218. Finally, when factoring those that are “leaning” one way or the other — meaning those states are slightly more competitive than those that are “likely” but are not quite considered to be toss-ups — bring the tally to 260-235 in favor of Democrats.
That leaves at least 43 votes up for grabs as both parties race to the magic 270 number.
Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin are expected to be the most competitive toss-up states in 2024, as each was decided by less than 1 percentage point during the last presidential cycle. Nevada is also considered a close toss-up as the Democrats’ victory margin has gradually decreased over the last four presidential elections.
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Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania were also closely decided in 2020, each being decided by less than 3 percentage points. As of now, Michigan and Pennsylvania are rated as “lean Democrat,” while North Carolina is predicted to “lean Republican,” according to the map.
However, it’s possible those three states could be moved into toss-up territory as the 2024 election nears, Sabato noted. As a result, that trio, combined with the four toss-up states, is where the true battleground lies, setting the stage for another highly competitive election.