Polls show Trump slightly losing his lead over DeSantis since this time last year
Christopher Tremoglie
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Maybe former President Donald Trump isn’t so politically impregnable after all.
Trump has relentlessly attacked Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in political ads for months. Once considered his protege and political ally, Trump knew that DeSantis would likely be his main rival for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. The former president has spent millions of dollars on vicious attack ads to distance himself in public opinion polls. But, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, Trump’s efforts haven’t worked.
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Between July 1, 2022, and June 24, 2023, RealClearPolitics’s polling data show that Trump has slightly lost his lead over DeSantis. On July 1, 2022, Trump’s polling average was 49%, while DeSantis was at 17.5% — a deficit of 31.5 percentage points. These results were calculated months before either declared their candidacies — and almost a year before DeSantis did. However, poll results show that on June 24, 2023, Trump’s support grew to 52.1%, but DeSantis’s support grew as well, to 21.5%. This is a deficit of 30.6 percentage points, which represents a (slim) 1-point gain for the governor.
Another significant issue for Trump compared to DeSantis is electability in the general election.
Most people believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to an NBC News poll from June 25, with 74% of respondents expressing that opinion. Additionally, the same poll revealed that over half the country (53%) disapproved of President Joe Biden’s performance. However, even with such strong negative feelings about Biden, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in the 2024 presidential election, the same poll revealed that Biden is beating Trump by 4 points, 49%-45%. In contrast, DeSantis and Biden are tied at 47% each.
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Furthermore, Trump’s popularity is likely to take an even greater hit with the multiple indictments he is facing. Contrary to what Trump, his campaign, and his supporters claim, most people do not want a president who could be found guilty in a trial for any wrongdoing. And while there are legitimate concerns regarding a currently two-tiered, inconsistent, and weaponized justice system in the country, most people would rather their elected candidates not have a criminal record.
Polls show Trump still has a large lead over DeSantis. It would be disingenuous to deny that. However, given the amount of money Trump has already spent, combined with the never-ending string of attack ads and social media “pit bulls” denigrating DeSantis, a logical assumption would be that Trump would have increased his lead. Unquestionably, the DeSantis campaign has a large gap to make up. Ultimately, the fact that Trump has not made any significant improvement in a year, especially since he announced his candidacy long before DeSantis did, should raise some red flags for the Trump campaign.