Three takeaways from Virginia 2023 primary that signal tough 2024 battle
Rachel Schilke
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Virginia‘s 2023 primary election sets up the state for a party showdown in 2024 because both Democrats and Republicans believe they have a viable path to wrestle control away from each other and take over the legislature.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and his Republican allies are pouring large amounts of resources in the form of donations and ad campaigns blasting Democrats on everything from crime to the economy. On the other side, Democrats are leaning on social issues such as abortion and major donations to gain back the seats lost to the GOP in 2021.
NOBODY HAD A BETTER NIGHT THAN GLENN YOUNGKIN
The Old Dominion is one of two states that have a split legislature, with Republicans in the House and Democrats in the Senate, which makes it harder for Youngkin to pursue his conservative agenda.
Here are the three takeaways from Virginia’s 2023 primary that will set up a fiery battle for November’s general election and set the stage for 2024.
Parties moving away from extreme opinions
Tuesday’s primary showed that constituents are ready to move away from extreme opinions in both parties after two incumbents championing fringe ideas were booted out of the general election.
Democratic state Sen. Joe Morrissey lost his reelection bid to former Democratic state Del. Lashrecse Aird for state District 13 by a large margin, 31% to 69%, with 92% of the votes in as of Wednesday morning.
Morrissey is a controversial figure within the state’s government, particularly for his anti-abortion stance, a unique position as a member of the Democratic Party. As a Catholic, he previously described himself as anti-abortion but said during his primary campaign his views had been misconstrued regarding restrictions to the procedures.
GOP state Sen. Amanda Chase, who described herself as “Trump in heels,” narrowly lost her three-way primary on Thursday to former Republican state Sen. Glen Sturtevant in state District 12, 38% to 39%.
Chase, like many far-right lawmakers, praised Jan. 6 rioters and has frequently clashed with fellow Republicans. She earned a rare bipartisan censure in 2021 that cost her committee assignments. Youngkin did not endorse Chase in the primary, and she did not earn any major Republican endorsements.
The incumbents’ loss signals that GOP politicians and voters are taking a step away from far-right policies that cost Republicans victories in the midterm elections. In 2024, national Republicans will be faced with a decision as to which direction the party should go — if they want to swing toward far-right ideals or put effort into more centrist Republican candidates.
Youngkin’s success in primary
The primary election was significant for Youngkin’s agenda at both the state and national levels as the Republicans seek to take control of the Senate in order to gain a trifecta. Democrats had a trifecta in the state in 2021 but lost the House heading into the 2022 session.
Of the 19 candidates Youngkin endorsed in the 2023 primary races, including all 10 of the closest primaries, every candidate won, a striking comparison to former President Donald Trump. The majority of Trump’s endorsed candidates failed to win primary or general elections in 2022.
One of Youngkin’s endorsed candidates, state Del. Tara Durant, defeated Matt Strickland, a man who vocally opposed COVID-19 restrictions.
If the Virginia governor were to enter the 2024 presidential election, which is still garnering speculation, he would enter the race with primary wins and legislative successes under his belt, similar to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), particularly if Republicans can wrestle control away from Democrats in the Senate.
Youngkin holds a 24-point net approval rating since April, an all-time high. With successes in the 2023 primary and potential wins in the 2024 general election, Youngkin could be setting himself up for a future Senate or presidential run that could gain much support from the Republican base.
Money still plays a role
While state races tend to be low-key affairs, Virginia’s legislature races are drawing attention from national figures and big donors.
As of June, Virginia legislators have raised more than $20 million in cash and other donations just in the few months leading up to the election. Democratic candidates outraised their GOP counterparts during the April-June reporting period, bringing in $14 million of the $22 million total.
Democrats had more than twice as many Senate nomination contests to win than Republicans. Many delegates opted to run for Senate to avoid battling their House colleagues in the primary after newly drawn political maps forced about half of the state’s 140 lawmakers into doubled- or tripled-up districts.
The 10 largest legislative fundraisers were all Democrats facing a nomination contest. Aird reported raising $985,211, more money than any other candidate, and having $100,821 cash on hand left over. Morrissey, for comparison, raised just under $100,000 and ended with $7,473 on hand.
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Several large donors entered the race to aid Democrats, particularly Dominion Energy and Clean Energy Fund. While climate- and energy-related policies were not central to the 2023 primary, the issues could play out on the national political field in 2024.
Clean Virginia Fund poured several hundred thousand dollars into multiple campaigns for more liberal Democratic candidates to try and offset donations from Dominion, which typically supports center-left legislators.