Ukraine’s lack of air power slowing advance of counteroffensive forces
Jamie McIntyre
‘SMALL ADVANCES, HIGH CASUALTIES’: Over the weekend, Britain’s Defense Ministry issued a sober assessment of the difficulty Ukraine’s counteroffensive is encountering in its attempt to break through Russian defenses, which over the past seven months have been fortified with trenches, tank traps, and extensive minefields.
“In recent days, heavy fighting has continued, with the most intense combat focused in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, western Donetsk Oblast, and around Bakhmut,” the ministry said in a Sunday Twitter update.
“In all these areas, Ukraine continues to pursue offensive operations and has made small advances,” the tweet said. “In the south, Russian forces often conduct relatively effective defensive operations. Both sides are suffering high casualties, with Russian losses likely the highest since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March.”
“What they’re hitting right now is the very initial Russian defensive line, which some areas in the south have been quite well defended. But they’re about 10 kilometers away from the main belt of Russian fortification,” said Mason Clark, lead Russia analyst for the Institute for the Study of War.
“What we’re seeing right now is what are generally known as probing attacks by some of those Ukrainian forces, finding gaps in the Russian defensive lines … they are running into quite well-prepared Russian defensive positions, and we’re seeing a number of pauses by Ukrainian forces as they reevaluate their tactics,” Clark said on CNN. “What we’re likely going to see in the next few weeks is the Ukrainians further finding gaps in those lines before eventually committing a broader number of those brigades that have been held back in reserves to a larger effort.”
THE ENEMY GETS A VOTE: There are two well-worn military maxims when it comes to waging war. One is “No plan survives first contact with the enemy,” and the second is its corollary: “The enemy gets a vote.”
And the Russians, after making disastrous miscalculations early in the war, have adjusted their tactics now that they’re playing defense.
“Russian armored columns, for instance, no longer rush into areas where they can be quickly damaged or destroyed. Troops are more often using drones and probing attacks — and sometimes just shouting — to find Ukrainian trenches before striking,” reported the New York Times in a dispatch from near the front lines.
As the counteroffensive began, Russia deployed 20 additional attack helicopters to a base 60 miles behind the front lines, according to British intelligence, which concluded Russia has likely “gained a temporary advantage in southern Ukraine, especially with attack helicopters employing longer-range missiles against ground targets.”
“Russian air support superiority has really taken a toll on the Ukrainians so far,” said former Defense Secretary Mark Esper on CNN Sunday. “This is going to be something we look back and say, ‘Boy, if only we had provided the Ukrainians air support, the F-16s, other aircraft sooner, it could have made a difference here in the initial phases of this operation.’”
“The Russians are using fighters and attack helicopters against the Ukrainian offense right now as we speak. And over a year ago, the Ukrainians asked for fighters to help them support them in this offensive, but they don’t have them,” said former Army Vice chief of staff Jack Keane on Fox News Sunday. “We’ve provided good assistance. It hasn’t been timely enough. And it … and it hasn’t been complete enough.”
ZELENSKY: ‘WE HAVE NO LOST POSITIONS’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to put the best face on the military operation, which is still in its initial stages, while keeping the level of Ukrainian losses a closely guarded secret.
“In some areas, our warriors are moving forward. In some areas, they are defending their positions and resisting the occupiers’ assaults and intensified attacks. We have no lost positions. Only liberated ones. They have only losses,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address.
Zelensky said he thanked British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in a phone conversation for the Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which some analysts speculate may have been used to destroy a huge Russian ammunition storage warehouse in the eastern Luhansk region. The long-range missiles “are doing a very useful and accurate job at the front,” said Zelensky.
“The fact of the matter is, the Ukrainians, despite the challenges that we’ve imposed on them with not giving them everything they need in a timely manner, they are going to put up a formidable fight here in taking back their territory,” said Keane on Fox.
“Because it’s slow, it doesn’t look like much is happening. A lot is happening as the Ukrainians are trying to find the penetration points. What’s the best place there to go through those obstacles and go through Russia’s main line defense forces?” Keane said. “That takes time. And they don’t want to get a lot of casualties trying to find out that answer.”
“The Ukrainians appear to be feeling out the Russians,” said Esper on CNN. “At some point, it’ll continue to pick up momentum, and we will see the type of offensive that we have been expecting … If you look back to last fall, the Kherson offensive took nearly two months, over two months. So I think this is going to work itself out.”
NATO’S SMALLEST ALLIES FLEX DIPLOMATIC MUSCLE IN DEBATE OVER UKRAINE’S PATH TO ALLIANCE
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in London today, following two days of meetings in China, including a face-to-face session with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Blinken is attending a meeting of the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which is looking ahead to the task of helping Ukraine rebuild after the fighting stops. He’s meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and is scheduled to hold a news conference with British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly at 8:25 a.m.
At the same time, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is in Berlin today, meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in advance of next month’s upcoming NATO leaders summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Ukraine has been pressing for a formal invitation to join NATO at the summit, but NATO is preparing to invite Ukraine to become an “equal member” of a new NATO-Ukraine defense council.
“Our ambition is to have the first meeting of the new council in Vilnius, with President Zelensky,” Stoltenberg said at the conclusion of last week’s meeting of NATO defense ministers. “Ukraine will be equal to NATO allies and consult and decide on security issues of mutual concern.”
We all agree that Ukraine has already moved closer to NATO over the past decade,” he said. “We agree that NATO’s door is open, that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance.”
BIDEN: UKRAINE NATO MEMBERSHIP ‘NOT AUTOMATIC’: The next day, President Joe Biden made it clear he’s in no rush to get Ukraine into NATO, seeming to reject proposals that some of the entrance requirements be waived for Ukraine given its performance in the war.
“They got to meet the same standards. So I’m not going to make it easier,” Biden told reporters Saturday.
“I think they’ve done everything relating to demonstrating the ability to coordinate militarily, but there’s a whole issue of: Is their system secure? Is it non-corrupt? Does it meet all the standards every other nation in NATO does?” Biden said. “I think they will. I think they can. But it’s not automatic.”
OPINION: OF COURSE UKRAINE WON’T BE INVITED TO JOIN NATO IN JULY
BLINKEN’S CHINA TRIP: The tone was positive, but the progress was murky after Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent two days in Beijing attempting to patch up relations that have been severely strained by China’s spy balloon incursion and its increasingly aggressive military exercises as it seeks to advance its goal of making Taiwan part of mainland China.
“Generally speaking, the two sides have had candid discussions,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping. “The two sides have also made progress and reached agreement on some specific issues. This is very good.”
“Over the past few days, I have had candid and constructive conversations with State Councilor Qin Gang and Director Wang Yi,” said Blinken in response. “We covered a broad range of both bilateral and global issues. I appreciate this opportunity to discuss the way forward with you.
At a news conference later, Blinken said he felt he had accomplished the limited goal of the trip, which was to stabilize the relationship between the two superpowers.
“Establishing open communications channels, directly raising issues of concern, exploring cooperation in places where it’s in our mutual interest to do so – we did all of that on this trip,” Blinken said. “ But progress is hard. It takes time. And it’s not the product of one visit, one trip, one conversation. My hope and expectation is: we will have better communications, better engagement going forward.”
REPUBLICANS SAY BIDEN ‘APPEASING’ CHINA WITH BLINKEN TRIP TO BEIJING
TRUMP’S NEW DOCUMENT DEFENSE: In an interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier yesterday, former President Donald Trump unveiled a new argument about why he didn’t return highly-classified documents as requested by the National Archives — namely, he just hadn’t gotten around to it.
“Why not just hand them over then?” Baier asked.
“Because I had boxes. I want to go through the boxes and get my personal things out. I don’t want to hand that over to NARA [National Archives and Records Administration] yet. And I was very busy, as you’ve sort of seen,” Trump said. “Before I send boxes over, I have to take my things out. These boxes were interspersed with all sorts of things.”
Trump continues to argue that under the Presidential Records Act, he had an absolute right to keep the documents as his “personal papers.”
“The only way NARA could ever get this stuff, this back would be [to say] please, please, please could we have it back,” Trump told Baier, who responded, “They did ask for it.”
“No, we were talking,” Trump interjected.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Chinese spy balloon ‘chapter should be closed,’ Blinken says
Washington Examiner: Republicans say Biden ‘appeasing’ China with Blinken trip to Beijing
Washington Examiner: China maintains threat of ‘unintentional conflict’ despite Blinken’s appeal
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin ‘confident’ Chinese military will communicate with US ‘at some point’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How Blinken’s visit to China risks fueling Xi’s appetite for escalation
Washington Examiner: NATO’s smallest allies flex diplomatic muscle in debate over Ukraine’s path to alliance
Washington Examiner: Lawmakers ramp up pressure on Air Force to make permanent Space Command base choice
Washington Examiner: Joe Biden slams Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville for Pentagon hold up: ‘It’s bizarre’
Washington Examiner: Kaylee McGhee White says Space Force hiring practice shows military ‘unreadiness’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Iran seeks to expand its military exports
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why did Trump do it?
Washington Examiner: Editorial: Fight or fright: America’s military unreadiness laid bare
New York Times: Why the Evidence Suggests Russia Blew Up the Kakhovka Dam
AP: Russia had means, motive and opportunity to destroy Ukraine dam, drone photos and information show
19fortyfive.com: ‘Disaster’: A Russian ‘Kamikaze’ Tank Packed With 6 Tons of TNT Went ‘Boom’ in Ukraine
Defense One: Ukraine F-16 Training Approval Will Likely Takes Months, US Official Says
Bloomberg: Paris Air Show: Boeing, Airbus, Aviation Industry Gathers for Week of Dealmaking
Financial Times: Xi Jinping’s Dream Of A Chinese Military-Industrial Complex
AP: North Korea calls failed spy satellite launch ‘the most serious’ shortcoming, vows 2nd launch
Wall Street Journal: Modi Stresses Ties To U.S., Global Role Ahead of State Visit
Defense One: Space Force Unworried by Predictions of Commercial-Launch Consolidation
NBC News: House GOP Moves To Ban Public Access To Service Members’ Military Records
Defense News: Republican Defense Bill Would Move Mexico Under U.S. Southern Command
Air & Space Forces Magazine: HASC Chair Rogers Inserts Funding for More F-15EXs in 2025
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Top Lawmaker Wants to Slash $550 Million in NGAD Funding. But It Wouldn’t Go to F-22
Air Force Times: F-22 Flight Training Begins at Virginia Base After Years in Limbo
Defense News: House Committee May Conduct Greater Oversight Of Navy Ship Maintenance
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Austin Urges Turkey to Support Sweden’s NATO Entry
Federal News Network: Air Force finds new ways to recruit cyber professionals
Defense News: Raytheon Injecting Collins Aerospace Unit with $2.7 Billion JADC2 Jolt
Breaking Defense: Raytheon Eyes Boxing Out Honeywell as Supplier for Critical F-35 Subsystem
Air & Space Forces Magazine: More Casualties, Less Comms: How Aeromedical Evacuation May Look in the Next Fight
Air & Space Forces Magazine: BUFFs in Guam: B-52s Deploy for Another Bomber Task Force
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s ‘Big Lie’ Might Be a Scheme to Exit the Ukraine War
19fortyfive.com: What’s It’s Like to Ride in a World War II B-25 Mitchell Bomber
Military.com: New Law Says Troops Get Up to $4,000 for Pet PCS Costs—But DOD Hasn’t Implemented It
Calendar
TUESDAY | JUNE 20
8:45 a.m. Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Electronics Division meeting to discuss “microelectronics, and what it will take to accomplish economic and national security objectives,” with Yadunath Zambre, chief microelectronics technology officer at the Air Force Research Laboratory https://www.ndia.org/events/2023/6/20/electronics
1 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “National Guard Bureau’s State Partnership Program at 30: Reflecting on the Past and Looking Toward the Future,” with Col. Scott Humphrey, chief of the Air Force International Affairs Division https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. — Brookings Institution lecture: “The two world wars, genocide, and the Ukraine war,” with Aurelie Bonal, deputy chief of mission at the Embassy of France; Annette Becker, professor at Paris Ouest Nanterre La Defense; and Omer Bartov, professor of Holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-two-world-wars-genocide-and-the-ukraine-war
3 p.m. – House (Select) Intelligence Committee CLOSED hearing: “FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation,” with testimony from special counsel John Durham http://intelligence.house.gov
5:15 p.m. HVC-304, U.S. Capitol — House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH); and House Intelligence ranking member Jim Himes (D-CT) media availability following a closed hearing with the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence with former Justice Department special counsel John Durham. RSVP: [email protected]
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 21
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee full committee markup of H.R.2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2024”; and H.R.1282, the “Major Richard Star Act” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee full committee markup of H.Res.488, calling on the Biden administration to immediately provide Army Tactical Missile Systems to Ukraine; H.R.3033, to repeal the sunset provision of the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996; H.R.4039, to prohibit the use of funds supporting any activities within Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China; H.R.1150, to establish the John Lewis Civil Rights Fellowship to fund international internships; and legislation to provide for the imposition of sanctions with respect to forced organ harvesting within the People’s Republic of China https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/markup
10:30 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee markup of provisions that fall under the subcommittee’s jurisdiction of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2024 https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/subcommittee
2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Committee CLOSED markup of S.822, the “Modification to Department of Defense Travel Authorities for Abortion-Related Expenses Act of 2023”; and the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2024 https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | JUNE 22
TBA Senate Chamber — The House and Senate hold a joint meeting to receive an address from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For current information on the Senate’s legislative program, please check with contacts listed below https://www.senate.gov
9:30 a.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Committee full committee CLOSED markup of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2024 https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Institute for the Study of War virtual briefing and Q&A session about the “critical next phase” of the war in Ukraine, with Jennifer Cafarella, ISW director of strategic initiatives; and Mason Clark, ISW Russia team lead https://events.zoom.us
1 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee hearing: “The Vilnius Summit and War in Ukraine: Assessing U.S. Policy towards Europe and NATO,” with testimony from Laura Cooper, deputy assistant defense secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia; and Douglas Jones, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/the-vilnius-summit
3:30 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: “Bolstering Arctic Domain Awareness to Deter Air and Missile Threats to the Homeland,” with Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-22-policy-paper-release
FRIDAY | JUNE 23
9:30 a.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Committee full committee CLOSED markup of the proposed National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2024 https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10:30 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute remarks and a conversation: “The Future of US-China Policy,” with Republican 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley; Zack Cooper, senior fellow, AEI; and Robert Doar, president, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/remarks-and-a-conversation-with-amb-nikki-haley
11 a.m. River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto to the Pentagon
MONDAY | JUNE 26
3 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: “Building U.S. Space Force Counterspace Capabilities: An Imperative for America’s Defense,” with author Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow for space studies, Mitchell Institute; Maj. Gen. David Miller, director of operations, U.S. Space Force; Robert Atkin, vice president, special space systems, General Atomics; and moderated by retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-27-policy-paper-release
THURSDAY | JUNE 29
10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: “Accelerating 5th-Generation Airpower: Bringing Capability and Capacity to the Merge,” with author and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former deputy Air Force chief of staff for operations and senior fellow, Mitchell Institute; Douglas Birkey, executive director, Mitchell Institute; Eric Gunzinger, former F-35 program manager for flight simulation test and evaluation; and retired Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa, and Allied Air Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-29-policy-paper-release
FRIDAY | JULY 7
7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY “If Ukraine fails to punch through Russian lines and reclaim a significant amount of Ukraine territory this year, many of [President Joe Biden’s] critics will point to the failure to equip Ukraine with an air force as a serious sin of omission.” Jamie McIntyre, writing in the Washington Examiner magazine, March 7, 2023