McCarthy’s debt deal could cede control of the House, Democrats say
Cami Mondeaux
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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) debt ceiling deal could unintentionally hand major wins to Democrats seeking reelection in 2024 by allowing the party to reclaim control of the lower chamber, according to some analysts.
The House easily passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act late last month in a 314-117 vote, allowing lawmakers to raise the debt ceiling through 2025 and narrowly avoid a default on the country’s debts. The bill was a bipartisan compromise crafted by McCarthy and the White House after weeks of grueling negotiations, but the speaker touted the deal as a major win for the GOP.
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Several Republicans, on the other hand, disagreed. Now, Democratic groups are seizing on that discontent in their campaign messaging, predicting the vote will lead to a shift in power after the 2024 elections.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act overwhelmingly passed the House after 165 Democrats joined 149 Republicans to back the legislation — angering many on the Right who used the unbalanced ratio as evidence the deal was solely a win for Democrats. More than 70 Republicans voted against the measure, opening the party up to attacks from Democrats as they seek to reclaim control of the House next year.
“Front-line Democrats running for reelection next year will now be able to say that they voted for the bipartisan Fiscal Responsibility Act that will cut $2.1 trillion in spending over the next six years,” states a memo from Hart Research Associates, a Democratic-aligned polling group. “If Republicans were planning on using the issue of federal spending as a sword against Democrats next year, they now have conspired to give Democrats a shield with which to combat those attacks.”
The group argued that House Republicans running in districts won by Biden in 2020 are at the highest risk, especially after they voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act, dubbed the “Default on America Act” by Democrats, earlier this year. In fact, the memo urged Democrats to press into that messaging, arguing it would be “political malpractice” if they “did not hold Republicans accountable” for that vote.
“Speaker McCarthy forced his most vulnerable members to walk the plank in voting for this extreme MAGA legislation, and then got almost none of it enacted into law,” the memo reads. “The bottom line: Republicans in Biden districts should expect to hear early and often about their reckless and meanspirited vote for massive domestic cuts and what those cuts would mean for American families. This was a bad vote, and Republicans will pay a price for it.”
All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats compared to Republicans — giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
At least 25 seats are rated as toss-ups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, meaning either party could flip control of that district in 2024. Of those, 14 are held by Republicans compared to just 11 held by Democrats.
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The memo comes as the House GOP has fractured over the debt limit vote, with hard-line conservatives forcing a halt in business this week due to frustrations with McCarthy’s negotiations. Members of the House Freedom Caucus decried the bill, arguing McCarthy compromised too much to reach a deal.
Those disagreements have seemingly smoothed over as the Rules Committee announced it would move forward with advancing legislation on Monday, teeing up votes for Tuesday afternoon.