Verified accounts scarce as Ukraine faces ‘very tough battles’ in opening days of offensive to expel Russia
Jamie McIntyre
‘VERY TOUGH BATTLES’: Ukrainian forces, armed with German Leopard tanks and American Bradley Fighting Vehicles, have launched attacks against deeply entrenched Russian defenses at several points along the 600-mile front lines, but as of this morning, there are no confirmed reports of the breakthrough that Ukraine is hoping will eventually cut the “land bridge” that Russia controls in the east and west.
In a cryptic reference in his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said there were “very tough battles” in the eastern Donetsk region, and he said he is “in constant communication” with his military commanders “in the hottest areas.”
“There is a result, and I am grateful to everyone who ensures this result! Bakhmut – well done. Step by step,” he said, providing no details of what appears to be a major push in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. “It’s not time to talk about it today,” he said.
THE LONG-AWAITED UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE MAY HAVE BEGUN
RUSSIA CLAIMS ASSAULT REPELLED: What little information is available is coming from the Russian Defense Ministry and Moscow’s state-controlled media. “Ukrainian forces attacked with NATO tanks and light armored vehicles. Our army has fought off these attacks,” said an anchor delivering “breaking news” on Russian TV.
Russia’s Defense Ministry released an aerial video that purports to show a Ukrainian tank being destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region. The video also appeared to show a column of at least six Ukrainian military vehicles, which appear to include German-made Leopard 2 tanks, according to the New York Times.
The Russians are putting up “stiff resistance,” and Ukrainian forces have sustained casualties, a U.S. official told CNN.
The Institute for the Study of War cited Russian sources as claiming that Russian troops were able to effectively use electronic warfare systems, air support, and landmines against Ukrainian forces. The sources said Russia was able to jam Ukrainian command and control signals, affecting GPS-enabled devices, including drones.
“Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces had insufficient air defense in the Orikhiv sector, that Russian forces operated with an ‘unprecedented’ amount of rotary wing air support, and that Russian aviation was able to return to a high level of activity after not actively engaging in combat operations since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022.”
“Amidst a highly complex operational picture, heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front. In most areas Ukraine holds the initiative,” said the British Defense Ministry in yesterday’s Twitter update. “Chechen units have led an unsuccessful attempt to take the town of Marivka, near Donetsk city, where the front line has changed little since 2015.”
WHY EVEN LIMITED UKRAINIAN BREAKTHROUGHS WILL POSE SPECIAL CHALLENGE FOR RUSSIAN FORCES
US LETTING UKRAINE DO THE TALKING: The White House and Pentagon refused to provide any insight into how the first five days of the counteroffensive are going.
“The Ukrainians should speak to the military operations. I won’t do that from here,” said President Joe Biden at a joint news conference with U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. “We’ve done everything we could collectively, individually in the United States to make them ready,” Biden said. “We’re very optimistic.”
“We’re certainly monitoring reports of increased fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces at various locations across the front lines in Ukraine,” said spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder at the Pentagon. “But when it comes to characterizing those particular operations or talking about those operations, that’s really something that’s best left to the Ukrainians.”
“We know they’re in a significant scrap right now and we know that the fighting could get much more intense here in the weeks ahead. And the United States, the United Kingdom, all our allies and partners across NATO, we all are going to do what we can to make sure that they have what they need,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby on MSNBC. “You’re going to see continued support and security assistance packages making their way to Ukraine, not just from the United States, but from other of our allies and partners, including the Brits.”
ZELENSKY VISITS KHERSON AS DEATH TOLL FROM FLOODING INCREASES
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HOW TO FOLLOW THE WAR: The Institute for the Study of War, which issues the most comprehensive daily assessments of the dynamic situation in Ukraine, has some words of wisdom about what to expect over the coming days, weeks, and months.
“The counteroffensive won’t likely unfold as a single grand operation. It will likely consist of many undertakings at numerous locations of varying size and intensity over many weeks,” the institute advises. “The initial counteroffensive operations may be the most difficult and slowest, as they involve penetrating prepared defensive positions. Initial setbacks are to be expected. This phase may also see the highest Ukrainian losses.”
In today’s battlefield assessment, the ISW cautioned: “Losses are inevitable during any military undertaking. Ukrainian forces will suffer losses, including of both Western and Soviet equipment, during any offensive operations. Western equipment is not impervious to damage any more than the equipment that the Ukrainians have been using and losing since February 2022. The loss of equipment — including Western equipment — early on in the counteroffensive is not an indicator of the future progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It is important not to exaggerate the impact of initial losses of Western or any other equipment, particularly in penetration battles against prepared defensive positions.”
THE SPACECOM WARS: The latest chapter in the long-running saga of whether the permanent headquarters of the U.S. Space Command will move to Huntsville, Alabama, or stay in Colorado Springs, is playing out in dueling pronouncements by each state’s congressional delegations.
On Tuesday, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) tweeted that following a meeting with the Alabama delegation, Gen. James Dickinson, the commander of SPACECOM, was fully on board with the move to Huntsville.
“Just like the GAO and DoD IG report Gen. Dickinson confirmed Huntsville is the preferred location of Space Command headquarters,” Tuberville said. “Enough is enough, it’s time to bring @US_SpaceCom home to Huntsville.”
U.S. Space Command had no comment on Tuberville’s statement, but in an apparent effort to avoid taking sides in the contentious political turf war, Dickinson dutifully met with the Colorado delegation yesterday.
“Today, we met with General Dickinson, Commander of U.S. Space Command, who made clear that his number one priority is getting U.S. Space Command to achieve full operational capability as soon as possible,” said Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Reps. Doug Lamborn (R) and Jason Crow (D). “He emphasized that he has no preference in the headquarters location nor is it his responsibility to make a final basing decision.”
The Biden administration is reportedly reconsidering the decision, made in the final days of the Trump administration, to locate the headquarters in Huntsville in part because of Alabama’s strict abortion restrictions.
“Abortion has nothing to do with military readiness,” tweeted Tuberville. “Huntsville was selected on the basis of 21 different criteria. It wasn’t even close. Colorado didn’t make the top 3.”
But the Colorado lawmakers are making a different argument, that the move would slow progress right as it needs to quickly move to counter China’s military space program. “We are grateful for General Dickinson’s leadership and actions to ensure that U.S. Space Command has the necessary personnel, skill sets, and training in place to address national security concerns now,” they said.
DEMOCRATS PUSHING FOR DEBT LIMIT OVERHAUL BILL: REPORT
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: The long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive may have begun
Washington Examiner: Why even limited Ukrainian breakthroughs will pose special challenge for Russian forces
Washington Examiner: Zelensky visits Kherson as death toll from flooding increases
Washington Examiner: Pentagon denies report of Chinese-Cuban agreement for spy facility
Washington Examiner: Pentagon finds Chinese ‘aggressive’ maneuvers a ‘major problem’
Washington Examiner: As China freezes out US defense secretary, the nations’ Cold War grows frostier
Washington Examiner: Democrats pushing for debt limit overhaul bill: Report
Washington Examiner: Air Defender 23 doesn’t show NATO’s strength but rather its US dependency
Washington Examiner: What the UK and the US want from each other
Politico: Blinken’s Long-Delayed Beijing Trip Now In Planning For Next Week
Defense One: China’s New Conscription Rules Reveal Concerns
Washington Post: Ukraine Punches Back At Russia
AP: Drone footage of collapsed dam shows devastation, no evidence to back Russian claims
Bloomberg: Pentagon Readies New $2 Billion Ukraine Air Defense Package
Politico: Pressure Builds on Biden to Send Long-Range Weapons to Ukraine
AP: India not planning to invite Ukraine to G20 summit in September
Task & Purpose: US Troops Launched 38 Missions Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria in May
Daily Beast: Putin’s Army Bombarded as First Dead Bodies Emerge in Floods
Defense One: New ICBM Delayed at Least a Year, GAO Says
Breaking Defense: A Space Force Dozen: SpaceX, ULA Awarded Contracts to Launch 12 New Satellites
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown: USAF Must Commit to Industry to Build Up Capacity for Munitions, Spare Parts
Air Force Times: Pregnant Women at Kadena Air Base in Japan Facing Tough Decisions
Air & Space Forces Magazine: This Air Force Squadron Is Key to DOD’s Plan For Climate Change
Air & Space Forces Magazine: SECAF’s New Reading List: It’s All About China
The Cipher Brief: NATO’s Growing Arctic Club Could Soon Give Russia, China a Chilling Show of Force
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Lying: Russia’s Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile is Not ‘Unstoppable’
19fortyfive.com: Putin Has Drama: Wagner Group Wants 200,000 New Soldiers to Fight Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy Has a Big Problem: Not Enough Submarines
Calendar
FRIDAY | JUNE 9
6 p.m. 2500 Calvert St. NW — Intelligence and National Security Alliance 38th William Oliver Baker Award Dinner “to posthumously honor Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, former deputy commander of the U.S. Cyber Command and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency,” with Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Dimitri Henry, director for intelligence, the Joint Staff; and Letitia Long, chairwoman of the INSA Board of Directors https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
MONDAY | JUNE 12
TBA — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg arrives in Washington for two days of talks with President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and members of the Senate NATO Observer Group
TUESDAY | JUNE 13
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Gen. Eric Smith to be commandant of the Marine Corps http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — The U.S. Institute of Peace hybrid event: “U.S.-China Crisis Communications in Dire Straits,” with Chad Sbragia, research analyst, Institute for Defense Analyses; Devin Ellis, senior faculty specialist, College of Behavioral and Social Sciences at the University of Maryland; Michael Swaine, senior research fellow, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; and moderator Carla Freeman, senior expert, China, U.S. Institute of Peace https://www.usip.org/events/us-china-crisis
11 a.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Joint media availability with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
12 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies releases: “Ahead of the NATO Summit: Burden Sharing to Responsibility Sharing,” a new CSIS report by Kathleen McInnis and co-author Daniel Fata, CSIS non-resident senior adviser and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy; Max Bergmann, CSIS director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; E.J. Herold, member, The SPECTRUM Group and former NATO deputy assistant secretary general for defense investment; and moderated by Donatienne Ruy, CSIS director of executive education https://www.csis.org/events/ahead-nato-summit-burden-sharing
2:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 14
8:30 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference ahead of two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee markup of H.R. 2670, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2024” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Indo-Pacific Subcommittee hearing on “Achieving Peace through Strength in the Indo-Pacific: Examining the FY2024 Budget Priorities,” with testimony from Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs; and Clay Epperson, acting deputy assistant administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development Asia Bureau https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “Assessing U.S. Efforts to Counter China’s Coercive Belt and Road Diplomacy,” with testimony from Geoffrey Pyatt, assistant secretary of state for energy resources; Arun Venkataraman, assistant commerce secretary for global markets and director general of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service; and Andrew Herscowitz, chief development officer for the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
THURSDAY | JUNE 15
4 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley lead an in-person meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group ahead of NATO Defense Ministerial https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
QUOTE OF THE DAY “I am an innocent man.” Former President Donald Trump in a Truth Social post following his indictment on charges of mishandling classified documents