The Biden administration can’t stop falling on its face
Dominic Green
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President Joe Biden tripped on a sandbag and fell on his face at the Air Force Academy graduation ceremony. We shouldn’t kick a man while he is down. But now he’s back on his feet, thanks to the special orthopedic “horseshoe” soles that stop him from falling over his own ankles. This president is a walking, talking, stumbling, rambling argument for the 25th Amendment, but let’s not kid ourselves. Only total incapacity or intervention from the donors can stop Biden from winning the Democratic nomination for 2024.
November 2024 is still a long way ahead. The president will play for time, but the world will not wait. While the Biden blooper reel runs on, the United States loses influence. When Antony Blinken appears before the cameras, he looks ashen. The secretary of state’s once-silky fringe hangs drably, like a sulky teenager’s. The bony fingers, so lithe on the fretboard of his acoustic guitar when he took office, now grip the lectern with whitened knuckles. He looks like the Ghost of Hegemony Past.
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A new poll from the European Council on Foreign Relations finds that 23% of Europeans think their country should support the U.S. in a war with China over Taiwan, while 62% want to remain neutral. Only 24% of Europeans think China is an “adversary.” Forty-three percent think China is a “necessary partner — with which we must strategically cooperate.” The Poles might want the U.S. to back them against Russia, but only 31% of Poles would back the U.S. against China. The Hungarians might be beloved by the cranky American Right, but only 20% of Hungarians want to tangle with China. A massive 73% would stay neutral. And these are your friends.
A great power secures its interests by creating clients because a client depends on the great power for protection. If the great power no longer provides it, the clients will take their business elsewhere. On May 31, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from the U.S.-led Combined Maritime Forces alliance. Based in Bahrain, this 38-nation coalition is supposed to combat Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is “incensed” by the U.S.’s failure to respond to the Iranian seizure of two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in late April and early May. The UAE statement said that “regional security and stability” depend on “effective security cooperation.”
On June 3, Iranian media announced that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar were joining India and Pakistan in a regional “naval alliance.” On June 6, Iran presented what it describes as its first domestically made hypersonic missile.
Early on June 7, Blinken went to Saudi Arabia to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Two days earlier, the Saudis had rolled up the red carpet by cutting their oil output by a million barrels a day. Hours before Blinken arrived, Iran reopened its embassy in Riyadh. The Saudi foreign minister acclaimed this Chinese-sponsored step as the opening of a “new era.”
Blinken called the talks “candid.” This is what diplomats call an argument. The White House is floundering for a win: trying to restart nuclear talks with Iran, asking the Saudis to accelerate their cautious reconciliation with Israel. But it’s too late. The Obama and Biden administrations insulted and abandoned their clients in the Gulf and have done their best to ensure that Iran becomes the Middle East’s hegemon. The Gulf monarchies must rebalance their interests as best they can. Goodbye, America. Hello, China.
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Blinken and a chorus of sleepwalkers recite phrases such as “the rules-based international order,” but you will have no order if you fail to enforce your rules. You will find yourself playing by your rivals’ rules. You may even end up living with an order run by your enemies. Does the Biden administration seriously expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to play by its rules and let the Ukrainians’ new tanks roll Russia out of Crimea? The destruction of the Kakhovka dam suggests otherwise. So do Putin’s repeated threats about using nuclear weapons.
The president is the symbol of America, and so are his fumbles and falls. Like Biden on his bike, the U.S. is wobbling toward a hard stop and failing to find the brakes. The president cannot remember how many grandchildren he has and starts work at noon. Next in line is Vice President Kamala Harris, whose grasp of the world beyond Berkeley makes Jimmy Carter look like Winston Churchill. The flabby institutions of empire take up the slack and trundle forward on their familiar tracks. If you are heading nowhere good, don’t expect your friends to follow you.