US policy in the Balkans lurches toward failure
Janusz Bugajski
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The Balkan policy of the Biden administration is undoing much of what then-Sen. Joe Biden accomplished over 20 years ago. During the 1990s, with strong bipartisan support, the United States and NATO ended the Yugoslav Wars through tough diplomacy and direct intervention. Washington also recognized all states that emerged from the defunct Yugoslav federation and made sure that no nation would dominate others. Two decades later, placating an autocratic regime in Serbia is undermining the foundations of western Balkan security and threatening to push the region toward new armed conflicts.
Wishful thinking and premature declarations of success by both Washington and Brussels have served to strengthen autocratic and ethnonationalist forces in the region. The Trump administration registered some tangible successes by bringing Montenegro and North Macedonia into NATO and facilitating a permanent agreement between Macedonia and Greece. Nonetheless, it failed to achieve mutual interstate recognition between Serbia and Kosovo or to ensure the territorial integrity of Bosnia-Herzegovina. It also toyed with the idea of partitioning states along ethnic lines — a recipe for stirring a regional conflagration.
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European Union policy in the Balkans has also proved inadequate. It has failed to provide membership to any state since Croatia entered a decade ago, and its constant addition of new conditions has served to disillusion citizens and encourage radicals. Attempts by Brussels to “normalize” relations between Serbia and Kosovo have turned into a parody, with ritualized negotiations persistently failing to tackle the root problem. Delusions of progress cannot hide the inability to persuade Serbia to recognize Kosovo even de facto, if not de jure. And without such interstate “normalization,” ethnic division will continue to be stoked. In addition, five EU states still do not recognize Kosovo’s independence and thereby contribute to the malaise.
Regional insecurity is primarily generated by a regime in Belgrade that seeks to divide Kosovo and Bosnia and dominate Montenegro. Serbia’s autocratic president, Aleksandar Vucic, placates Washington by engaging in meaningless talks with Prishtina and claims he seeks a “balance” between the West, Russia, and China. At the same time, he maintains an alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin and allows Serbia to be a gateway for Russia’s subversion of the Balkans.
Nonetheless, the current mass demonstrations in Belgrade indicate that Serbia may be on the verge of a democratic revolution to replace the corrupt, autocratic regime. Fearful of losing power, Vucic could precipitate conflict in the wider region to deflect attention from growing domestic pressures. The recent attacks by organized gangs on Kosova’s police and NATO troops in northern Kosova could portend broader turmoil engineered by Belgrade if Washington’s response to such provocations is perceived as weak.
An indecisive Western approach that tolerates Belgrade’s sabotage is more likely to result in violence than a policy that focuses on state consolidation in Bosnia, Montenegro, and Kosova and neutralizes all expansionist pan-national projects. Unless Brussels and Washington issue a firm timetable for mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo and specify the economic and diplomatic consequences of nonrecognition, including cutting economic subsidies, Vucic will continue to manipulate the dispute to rally nationalists and polarize societies. Similarly, in Bosnia, unless there is institutional pushback against Serbian and Croatian separatism and a determination to empower the central government by reducing the role of autonomous entities, the country will remain prone to internal and external destabilization.
At a time of regional upheaval, Washington must send a clear message that it supports the aspirations of the Serbian people for fair elections and a democratic government while fully defending the integrity of Serbia’s neighbors. Only a pro-Western administration in Serbia that severs Belgrade’s corrupt ties with Moscow and revokes any expansionist regional ambitions can become a genuine partner for Washington. And without a decisive American strategy containing concrete goals, timetables, rewards, and punishments for all protagonists, the western Balkans could again slide toward war.
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Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, is also published in Ukrainian and Russian. His next book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.