Ukraine takes the war to Russia’s border regions, unnerving Moscow and Washington
Jamie McIntyre
‘RUSSIA HAS INCREASINGLY CEDED THE INITIATIVE’: As the beginning of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive grows nearer, cross-border attacks against Russian targets have grown more brazen and have forced Russian commanders to redeploy forces in response.
Ukraine has denied direct responsibility for raids in the Belgorod region, which have purportedly been carried out by the pro-Ukrainian “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Freedom of Russia Legion.” Overnight artillery shells from Ukraine rained down on Belgorod, wounding eight people, according to the local mayor. Also yesterday, a drone reportedly crashed into an oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, east of Crimea, and started a fire.
This came a day after a drone attack on Moscow, which lightly damaged three apartment buildings but exposed gaps in Russia’s air defenses and sparked angry criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin by commenters and military bloggers.
“Since the start of May 2023, Russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the conflict and is reacting to Ukrainian action rather than actively progressing towards its own war aims,” said the British Defense Ministry in a Twitter intelligence update. “Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralizing Ukraine’s improved air defenses and destroying Ukrainian counter-attack forces. On the ground, it has redeployed security forces to react to partisan attacks inside western Russia.”
Ukraine continues to claim an impressive success rate of intercepting Russian drones and missiles. Ukraine’s General Staff said on its Facebook page that 10 Iskander ballistic missiles were fired at Kyiv from the north overnight, but all were shot down.
KREMLIN CALLS SHELLING OF BELGOROD REGION ‘ALARMING’ FOLLOWING MOSCOW ATTACK
‘WE DO NOT SUPPORT ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA’: The official United States response to the strikes on Russian territory is a bit of a mixed message. It’s up to Ukraine, but there is the risk of escalation.
“We have been very clear with the Ukrainians privately, we certainly have been clear publicly, that we do not support attacks inside Russia,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby at a White House briefing. “We do not enable and we do not encourage attacks inside Russia. And we certainly don’t want to see attacks inside Russia … that are being conducted using U.S.-supplied equipment.”
On the other hand, Kirby said it’s up to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his military commanders to decide how they will employ “equipment that has been provided to them and that they now own.”
“We don’t tell them where to strike. We don’t tell them where not to strike. We don’t tell them how to conduct their operations. We give them equipment. We give them training. We give them advice and counsel. Heck, we even do tabletop exercises with them to help them plan out what they’re going to do.”
EU PRESIDENT BACKS LONG-RANGE MISSILES FOR UKRAINE
MEDVEDEV: UK FOREIGN MINISTER LEGITIMATE TARGET: The United Kingdom has been much more forward-leaning when it comes to supporting Ukraine’s military objectives, leading the way with longer-range Storm Shadow missiles and pushing for allies to supply F-16s to Ukraine’s air force.
But the reaction to Tuesday’s drone attack by U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has drawn the ire of Putin’s primary attack dog, Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and deputy chair of the Russian Security Council.
“Ukraine does have the legitimate right to defend itself. It has the legitimate right to do so within its own borders, of course, but it does also have the right to project force beyond its borders to undermine Russia’s ability to project force into Ukraine itself,” Cleverly said in Estonia Tuesday.
That prompted a threat from Medvedev, who tweeted, “The UK acts as Ukraine’s ally providing it with military aid in the form of equipment and specialists, i.e., de facto is leading an undeclared war against Russia. That being the case, any of its public officials (either military, or civil, who facilitate the war) can be considered as a legitimate military target.”
BRITISH POLITICIANS ARE LEGITIMATE MILITARY TARGETS, FORMER RUSSIAN PRESIDENT SAYS
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden delivers the commencement address at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado, where 921 new Air Force officers will celebrate their graduation and the Thunderbirds F-16 aerial demonstration team will conduct the traditional flyover.
SPACE FORCE UNITS DESIGNATED FOR COLORADO: In what may or may not be an indication of the Air Force’s thinking about the future permanent headquarters of the U.S. Space Command, the service has announced that several Space Force squadrons will be based at two Colorado Space Force bases.
The preliminary decision made during the last days of the Trump administration to move the SPACECOM headquarters to Huntsville, Alabama, has essentially been on hold since Biden took office and has been further complicated by concerns about moving military personnel and their families to a state which now has some of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country.
In a welcome message to Biden, Colorado Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper, both Democrats, included a plea to keep the Space Command’s headquarters in its present location.
“Colorado plays a critical role in our country’s national security. Beyond the Air Force Academy, Colorado is home to the largest number of Space Force Deltas, three Space Force bases, and several specialized headquarters, including U.S. Space Command. Our state is the nexus of America’s defense and space missions, and boasts a highly-skilled civilian workforce, a robust defense industry, and several world-class universities,” they wrote.
“As President Biden and his administration near a final basing decision for Space Command, we urge them to restore the integrity of this process and make a decision in the interest of our national security – to keep Space Command in Colorado Springs.”
AIR FORCE PICKS COLORADO TO BASE NEW SPACE FORCE UNITS
BIDEN TAPS NEW COMMANDERS, CHIEFS: The Pentagon has announced eight nominations for top military posts, including Biden’s pick to head the Marine Corps.
The formal announcement included his nomination of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which Biden announced in the Rose Garden last week.
Joining Brown on the Joint Chiefs, if confirmed, will be Gen. Eric M. Smith, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, who is nominated to move up to commandant, replacing Gen. David Berger, who is retiring.
Air Force Lt. Gen. Gregory M. Guillot is nominated for a fourth star and a posting as commander, U.S. Northern Command, as well as commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command. Guillot is currently deputy commander of the U.S. Central Command.
And Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy D. Haugh, deputy commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, is nominated to be director, National Security Agency; chief, Central Security Service; and commander, U.S. Cyber Command, which is a four-star billet.
Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George was previously nominated to move up to chief.
Four more three-star nominations can be found here.
BIDEN HAS MADE HIS PICK FOR TOP MARINE OFFICER
DEBT CEILING BILL WILL HAMSTRING PENTAGON: A bipartisan coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats combined to pass the debt ceiling budget bill after hours of rancorous debate in the House yesterday.
When the final vote came after 9 p.m., the tally was 314-117. The bill now goes to the Senate, which could vote on the measure as soon as tomorrow.
The bill will reduce the federal budget deficit by about $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, but it will also lock the Pentagon into the $886 billion FY 2024 budget proposed by Biden, which Republicans have deemed woefully inadequate to meet the challenge of an increasingly powerful China.
As was the case of the 10 years of mandatory spending cuts imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act, members of Congress may look for ways to get around the caps to increase defense spending with supplemental appropriations.
MCCONNELL SAYS DEFENSE PROVISION IN DEBT CEILING BILL IS ‘WORST PART OF THE DEAL’
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Air Force picks Colorado to base new Space Force units
Washington Examiner: West will ‘reassess’ war in Ukraine after summer campaign, France’s Macron says
Washington Examiner: EU president backs long-range missiles for Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Biden administration announces new $300 million military aid package to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: British politicians are legitimate military targets, former Russian president says
Washington Examiner: Kremlin calls shelling of Belgorod region ‘alarming’ following Moscow attack
Washington Examiner: Biden has made his pick for top Marine officer
Washington Examiner: ‘Good news for the American people’: Biden reacts to House passage of debt deal
Washington Examiner: ‘Republicans have huge wins in this fight’: Marjorie Taylor Greene sounds off on debt deal
Washington Examiner: McConnell says defense provision in debt ceiling bill is ‘worst part of the deal’
Washington Examiner: Every House member who voted against passing the debt ceiling bill
Reuters: U.S. Defense Secretary Austin Says China’s Meeting Snub Unfortunate
Washington Times: Indo-Pacific Commander Warns China’s Leader On Cost Of War
New York Times: China Investing in Open-Source Intelligence Collection on the U.S.
New York Times: Blinken Tours NATO’s North As Risks Loom Large In Arctic Region
Washington Post: Putin Aims To Project Calm After Drone Attack In Moscow
Daily Beast: Team Putin Spars Over Baffling Russian ‘Victory Plan’ in War
Soldier of Fortune: Smugglers, Weapons, and Gunfire: On Private Patrol Through the Border Badlands of Arizona
Marine Corps Times: Biden’s Pick To Lead The Marine Corps Helped Design Its New Vision
Space News: US Space Command Takes Over Responsibility for Protecting Homeland from Missile Strikes
Military.com: Space Force’s STARCOM HQ Preferred Location Is Florida Base, Service Says
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy’s Billion-Dollar Mystery ‘Kamikaze Drones’
Breaking Defense: Boeing Backs Away from Price Tag Pledge for Upcoming F-15EX Production Lots
Air & Space Forces Magazine: GAO Urges Congress: Make F-35 Engine Upgrade Its Own Program
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How Maintainers at Hill Found A Cheap Way to Make the F-35 Even Better
Air & Space Forces Magazine: ICBM Cancer Study Will Include ‘Enduring’ Environmental Monitoring
DefenseScoop: Pentagon Office Developing New Sensors to Better Detect UFOs
Defense One: Unmonitored Networks Put US Nuclear Arsenal at Risk: GAO
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy’s Billion-Dollar Mystery ‘Kamikaze Drones’
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Rep. Seth Moulton: ‘‘We Need an AI Geneva Convention”
Calendar
THURSDAY | JUNE 1
8 a.m. Oslo, Norway — Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a press availability following an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Livestreamed at www.state.gov and www.YouTube.com/statedept
9:40 a.m. Colorado Springs, Colorado — President Joe Biden delivers the commencement address for the Class of 2023 at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Falcon Stadium
9:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “The President’s FY2024 Budget Request for the National Guard and Reserve,” with testimony from Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief of the National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. Jody Daniels, chief of the Army Reserve; Vice Adm. John Mustin, chief of the Navy Reserve; Lt. Gen. David Bellon, commander of the Marine Forces Reserve; and Lt. Gen. John Healy, chief of the Air Force Reserve https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Korea and U.S.-China Competition,” with Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/korea-and-us-china-competition
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “How Will Presidential Election Results Affect Turkey’s Regional Outlook?” with Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington; Alan Makovsky, senior fellow for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress; Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington; and Gonul Tol, founding director of the MEI Turkey program https://mei.edu/events/how-will-presidential-election-results-affect-turkeys-regional-outlook
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “What America Gets Wrong About China,” with Keyu Jin, professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Sudan in Conflict and the Implications for the U.S. Footprint in Africa,” with retired Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, former commander, U.S. Africa Command; former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy; and Morgan Vina, JINSA vice president for government affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JUNE 2
9 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Arms Control Association 2023 annual conference with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan; and Alexander Kmentt, director of disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation at the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://www.armscontrol.org/2023AnnualMeeting
8:30 p.m. (8:30 a.m. Saturday, Singapore) Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers plenary remarks at the IISS 20th Shangri-La Dialogue, one day before China’s Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu is scheduled make a major speech https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
TUESDAY | JUNE 6
3 p.m. — Brookings Institution event, “Securing global mobility: A conversation with Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, 14th commander of the US Transportation Command,” with Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and Air Force Col. Jason Wolff, federal executive fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-securing-global-mobility
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 7
4:30 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: “Strategic Nuclear Deterrent Modernization,” with Rob Wittman (R-VA), vice chairman, House Armed Services Committee https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-congressman-rob-wittman
QUOTE OF THE DAY “We don’t tell them where to strike. We don’t tell them where not to strike. We don’t tell them how to conduct their operations. We give them equipment. We give them training. We give them advice and counsel. Heck, we even do tabletop exercises with them to help them plan out what they’re going to do.” NSC spokesman John Kirby saying that while the U.S. does not support attacks inside Russia, ultimately it’s up to Ukraine.