Providing F-16s to Ukraine won’t be a ‘silver bullet’
Mike Brest
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The Western world laid the groundwork to provide Ukraine with fourth-generation aircraft last weekend, but they won’t arrive in time for an imminent counteroffensive.
President Joe Biden told G7 leaders in Japan on Friday that he has approved a plan for a coalition of Western countries to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, with a longer-term goal of providing the fighter jets to Ukraine. Further details, including which country or countries will actually transfer F-16s to Ukraine, have yet to be worked out.
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“I don’t expect the F-16s to take part in the existing … let’s assume tomorrow the offensive was starting or in a week, or two, or five, or seven, or ten. It’s not — highly unlikely they would take place in that context,” Biden said.
“But it will take place in the context — if they’re successful in the near term, they’re going to then continue to have to fight with the Russians, who have headquarters beyond where they are now, not able to be reached by the existing capacity that exists in their arsenal. So it’s a different need, just like the tanks weren’t needed in the beginning, but they’re needed now,” the president added.
Several countries have begun training Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation aircraft, European Union High Representative Josep Borrell told reporters on Tuesday, while a senior Biden administration official told the Washington Examiner last week the training is expected to last a couple of months.
Retired RADM Mark Montgomery, a fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said he believed it would take three to four years to transition Ukraine to F-16s in a peacetime environment, though they’re “going to do this in a year, maybe 15 months.”
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ International Security Program, told the Washington Examiner that the F-16s are at least six months out from being operational in theater, and that’s only if the U.S. or allies provide older versions instead of waiting for ones to come off assembly lines.
“I think that their major contribution is not going to be in front-line support,” he explained. “The front lines are just too dangerous for Ukrainian or Russian aircraft. I think where they’ll be most effective is for air defense. And by that, I mean taking down Russian, particularly cruise missiles, which had been a huge problem.
“It won’t be a significant military factor,” Cancian explained, but “it has a lot of symbolism, like the M1 tanks.
“It’s an expression of support” with “some real big military benefits,” Cancian said, even though “a lot of people think there’s going to be a silver bullet … and that’s totally not the case.”
Montgomery agreed, telling the Washington Examiner Ukrainians likely won’t have the infrastructure to operate and repair F-16s until next summer. He said providing “fourth-generation aircraft to Ukraine is necessary. I don’t think it’s a today necessary, but I think it was something that had to happen over time.”
Biden, like when he agreed to provide Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks in January or the Patriot missile system in December, had repeatedly denied Ukraine’s requests for fighter jets for months before giving in.
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It’s unclear what the war could look like by the time Ukraine gets the F-16s, due to Russia’s apparent success in the city of Bakhmut over the weekend. Russian forces have been trying to capture the eastern Ukrainian city for more than six months, and they have experienced such a high number of casualties that U.S. officials described the situation as a “meat grinder.”
Biden said over the weekend that Russia had suffered more than 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut.
Kremlin leaders claimed they captured the city on Saturday, which would end the longest and most deadly battle of their 15-month war in Ukraine, though Ukrainian officials have said they are advancing on the outskirts of the town with the intent of encircling Russian troops within the town limits to force them to defend the captured land.