Does Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) sit atop a mountain as the only Republican VIP spared by the 2026 blue tsunami? Marco Rubio’s position as secretary of state means he must own an unpopular war in the Middle East, while JD Vance as veep is even more joined at the hip with President Donald Trump, whose political mandate of heaven has seemingly been repudiated by voters and relegated to purgatory.
History doesn’t favor 42-year-old Vance, as only two sitting vice presidents have ascended to the presidency despite being well-positioned to do exactly that. Though a saving grace is that one of these two was relatively recent — George H.W. Bush in 1988. The next most recent, Martin Van Buren, took the helm a century and a half prior. Additionally, Vance has expressed to the media that he may choose not to run at all, citing family obligations.
“We’ve got four little kids; my wife has never loved politics,” Vance said during an Oct. 17 CBS News town hall, ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections when Democrats won control of the House and Senate by wide margins and claimed up to 30 governorships.
Trump himself has not been particularly helpful here, having told reporters he may not endorse anyone in 2028. “Maybe you have a lot of people running. Maybe nobody’s going to run. Maybe he won’t run. I don’t know who’s going to run,” said Trump, suggesting a lackluster Republican “vibe” ahead of 2028. As a lame duck president, Trump’s mojo, like Austin Powers, is somewhat sapped.
While Vance is wavering, DeSantis, about to finish eight years as Florida governor, has emitted only the mildest of intent-to-run chirps. Lambasting unfounded rumors of a run for president, DeSantis pushed back on the Washington Post’s suggestion otherwise, and its report of his super PAC fundraising for such an effort. In addition to his allegedly tapping a political consultant for the same.
“I have not reached out to anybody about running for anything,” said DeSantis. “[It’s] just another pathetic attempt to garner clicks.”
DeSantis’s relative insulation from the blue wave that overtook the rest of the country to his north in early November is a quiet testimony to his superior red-tribe governance in Florida: its residents didn’t punish the Republicans. (It’s true that Miami has finally caved to a Democratic mayor, but I digress.) His distance from the Make America Great Again coalition will be helpful in any potential run. DeSantis can even boast of Florida’s high-speed rail, a white elephant project in California but which has actually come to fruition in the Sunshine State.
Coming up from the rear and from the side, the word from the Washington Post is that former Gov. Glenn Youngkin is considered a viable option to throw his hat into the ring. (Why the saying is not “gloves into the ring,” I don’t know.) As for another GOP luminary representing the South, former South Carolina governor and Trump administration 1.0 Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, she’s sitting 2028 out.
“I am not running in 2028, but I will continue to talk about the things that I care about,” Haley, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, told market news outlet CNBC.
That said, Youngkin’s odds of clinching the nomination remain long. To put it in perspective, prediction markets even put him behind… political commentator Tucker Carlson. Carlson sits at about 4%, to 2% for Youngkin, Virginia’s Republican governor from 2022 to 2026.
With War Secretary Pete Hegseth having barely avoided an impeachment vote backed by many Democrats and a single Republican — defeated-by-primary congressman and stalwart Constitution fan Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) — the feeling in the air is that when it comes to geopolitics, the wind is not at the GOP’s back. This tarnishes Rubio more acutely than it does Vance, and buttresses Youngkin and DeSantis.
One wild card is the younger Right’s changing perspectives on Israel. This is a sticking point that is only going to grow. Some Israel supporters are skeptical of Vance’s approach, while Rubio, Youngkin, and DeSantis are known as strong allies of the Jewish state.
Rubio maintains a modestly better “popularity” score on YouGov than Vance, but when Rubio’s slightly lower “fame” score is taken into account, his popularity speaks to relative favorability. He’s not as well-known, but also more liked, suggesting that if he were better known, he might indeed be even better liked. (You can’t like or dislike someone you’ve never heard of.)
Of course, the prospects for any of these gentlemen are incomplete without a, dare I say, dialectical knowledge and understanding of who they’re up against in the rival party. Despite much chatter about Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) throwing his, er, gloves into the ring, a recent straw poll of Democrats treated the Golden State’s departing chief executive as a black hole. The current favorite is the relatively fresh face of Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), he of a recent Saturday Night Live reference after easily securing a second six-year Senate term. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) scored a distant second.
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Placing a lowly 16th in the poll: former Vice President Kamala Harris. A figure many Democrats have serious electoral doubts about after her 2024 loss to Trump.
If it were Harris, it would matter very little who the Republicans offered up. They’d likely be a shoo-in nominating, well, an actual boxing glove.
Dain Fitzgerald (@DainFitzgerald) is a writer and “podtuber” in Diamond Springs, California, in the beautiful Gold Country of El Dorado County. His Substack is @mupetblast.