Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) rightfully called Tuesday’s Republican losses “close to an extinction-level event.” There is little comfort to offer a party that lost Congress, fell short in Michigan and Georgia, and surrendered Senate seats in states including Republican strongholds Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina.
But the victors are hurtling toward a primary their historic success could make destructive.
Democrats won so broadly that several ambitious politicians can now make a plausible case that they should lead the party into 2028. Their success has made the next presidential primary dramatically harder to settle and may be the last hope for a Republican Party in turmoil.
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A CHRISTIANITY PROBLEM — TRUMP’S GOP IS JUST AS LOST
Firebrands such as Abdul el Sayed and James Talarico won with large statewide margins in battleground Michigan and traditionally Republican Texas, respectively. Establishment Govs. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), JB Pritzker (D-IL) and Wes Moore (D-MD) all won reelection. Each added a fresh victory to a presidential argument. Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) decisive victory in Georgia will encourage speculation even as he disclaims interest. These men enter a conversation already crowded by former Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Michigan gives the progressive Left an answer to anyone questioning whether it can win. El Sayed defeated establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) despite heavy spending against him, then won a Senate seat in a presidential battleground.
Now tell the now-incredibly successful progressive faction that it should step aside for a safer choice such as Newsom, Moore, or Shapiro.
The contenders will carry more than their own ambitions into the race. Every presidential campaign is an open door for opportunistic donors, advisers, and elected allies to advance ambitions of their own. Every credible contender offers those people somewhere to go. A wave this gargantuan can sustain several major efforts, leaving the conditions in place for a lengthy, costly, and damaging primary process for the Democrats.
The success that makes Democrats formidable also gives Republicans an opening. Several well-funded contenders, each convinced they represent the party’s future, could spend months weakening one another. Republicans need to devote that time and their resources to rebuilding the coalition behind President Donald Trump’s 2024 comeback.
Vice President and MAGA heir apparent JD Vance offered a starting point Wednesday: “The reason we lost is the war.” If, as he argues, Republican voters turned out and rejected Republican candidates, the party has to earn back support it once took for granted.
Vance’s diagnosis gives him a designed opening to argue that he can recover Trump’s 2024 coalition by correcting the administration’s course. It also creates a question that could plague him through 2028: Why trust this administration’s vice president to deliver that correction?
DeSantis offered a competing argument at his press conference: Florida’s governing record had earned enough trust to withstand the wave. From a man who challenged Trump in 2024, that sounds like the beginnings of another presidential case.
Should the administration seek an alternative face, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s appeal to establishment and moderate Republicans during the 2016 primary could become relevant again. He would need a campaign built to win back voters disappointed by this administration.
YOUTH KILLED TEXAS REPUBLICANS
Tuesday does not establish that Republicans need an ideological centrist. A calmer presentation may help, but serious contenders must devote time and resources to building a credible platform on prices and peace. A centrist must recover disillusioned Trump voters without losing the loyal base. A conservative must invest in winning over voters who rejected Trump’s handpicked 2026 candidates.
Democrats’ crowded primary could give Republicans room to recover. Winning in 2028 will require a nominee who can bring disillusioned Trump voters back with a platform they believe in and the judgment to carry it out.
Chase Vogt is a Michigan-based Republican political consultant and campaign strategist who has worked on gubernatorial and legislative campaigns. His work focuses on political messaging, communications, and campaign strategy.