The disruption of Ukrainian access to American satellite systems last month sent a clear warning to allies worldwide: if the United States offers access to its world-class military assets, it can just as quickly rip it away.
Ukraine became a sitting duck on Oct. 13 after access to its Starshield systems was restricted, compromising its ability to repel Russian ballistic missile attacks. Military officers and government officials pleaded for the crucial defenses to be reactivated, but no one understood who pulled the plug.
Even after full access was restored over the next few days, no official explanation was offered. Weeks later, Ukraine still doesn’t have any answers.
“The reality is that we did not receive an answer from the Pentagon or SpaceX on actually what has happened and what was the reason and and so on,” Denys Sienik, the Ukrainian chargé d’affaires to the United States, told reporters at a briefing in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. “Nobody provided an answer.”
No explanation, no trust
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claimed the systems, developed by his company Starlink, could only be tampered with by the Department of War or the White House. Conversely, administration officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that the corporate side was responsible for the temporary disruption.
When a bipartisan group in the Senate demanded an investigation, the War Department Office of Inspector General declined to pursue the matter.
And the October incident was not the first time that access to SpaceX technologies has been used as leverage in foreign hostilities. President Donald Trump is only carrying on the precedent set by his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, who strategically ordered Starlink services flipped on and off in conflict zones such as Iran and Yemen.
European Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned last month that his continent remains “quite dependent on American space capabilities,” echoing similar concerns from national leaders who see the U.S. as an increasingly volatile vendor.
“The U.S. [defense] industry and officials ain’t doing themselves any favors,” a European diplomat in Washington, D.C., told the Washington Examiner. “It’s hard enough to buy and actually receive U.S. weapons. Kill switches are bad for business and trust.”
Kill switches everywhere
European governments and their militaries rely extensively on services from American corporations such as Microsoft, Oracle, and Google — making the “kill switch” threat omnipresent.
When the International Criminal Court was first hit with sanctions by the U.S. State Department last year, Microsoft immediately pulled services like email accounts from affected individuals. Their ability to do business with American banks was also ended.
The Brussels-based Future of Technology Institute has long warned that Europe relies on American tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, and Oracle for approximately 80% of cloud services.
“The current state of play exposes Europe’s defence and security systems to the same risk of a legal ‘kill switch’ that disrupted the International Criminal Court last year,” an FTI report reads. “It raises the prospect that access to critical defense systems could be used as a geostrategic lever.”
The result is a chaotic defense landscape in which Europeans are expending financial and logistical resources on protecting themselves from their most critical ally, the U.S.
At an Oct. 21 press conference, a spokesman for the European Commission said that the Starshield situation highlighted the fact that “Europe’s security depends on space,” and that continental leaders remain committed to the “deployment and development of IRIS².”
IRIS² is a proposed constellation of more than 300 satellites, directly modeled after the Starshield system, that will provide similar capabilities for location tracking, secure communications, and surveillance. It is set to launch in 2029 and is estimated to cost approximately $16 billion.
Bickering while the enemy builds together
Lt. Gen. Richard Newton, former assistant vice chief of staff for the U.S. Air Force, told the Washington Examiner that the U.S. is far more insulated from kill-switch threats than Europeans. But he questioned undermining this existing ecosystem of shared defense and intelligence at a time when America’s rivals are coalition-building.
The U.S. “would be able to defend our own soil if we lost our allies and their systems,” due to unparalleled military power projection and “tremendous food and energy production here at home.” But the U.S. benefits immensely from shared systems and operations with its allies with programs, he said. As examples, he mentioned the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, which the U.S. operates with Canada; the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance with the U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; and AUKUS, the security partnership with the U.K. and Australia.
“If ever we need friends and allies, the time is now,” Newton said, saying he “has never seen a more chaotic global security environment than we’re experiencing today.”
“Why expose the nation to this scenario as our key adversaries — namely Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea — are becoming more aligned and integrated in their pursuit to displace U.S. leadership in the global order?” he asked.
Russia is preparing to launch its own satellite system, its counterpart to Starlink and Iris2. The network, known as Rassvet, would mark a giant leap in their offensive capabilities.
“They will be able to cover all Ukraine and actually all Europe, and if needed, any other part of the world,” Sienik said Thursday. “And the next [concern] is whether they will share this technology with their partners and how their partners will use that technology.”
“That’s a major threat,” he said. “It’s not only about Ukraine. It’s really also about other countries.”
Russia has inked cooperative agreements with China, Iran, and North Korea in a slew of frontier technologies. The countries have, to varying degrees, committed to mutual development in areas like artificial intelligence and drone warfare.
On the same day the European Commission was being asked about U.S. disruptions to Ukrainian Starshield access, Chinese media reported Premier Li Qiang met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in St. Petersburg. The pair celebrated how their countries have “stood shoulder to shoulder and moved forward in unity” amid such a tumultuous time in geopolitics.
“Modern defense depends on interconnected systems and capabilities. That’s not just weapons, but intelligence, communications, and air defense,” Carrie Filipetti, executive director at the Vandenberg Coalition, told the Washington Examiner. “Nothing would make Putin and Xi happier than seeing the United States and its allies lose confidence in one another.”
The contract granting Ukraine access to Starshield is set to expire in 2027. Despite the disruption in October, Kyiv is desperately seeking to negotiate to renew that contract.
America’s allies will be watching with keen interest to see if Washington grants that request and whether the “kill switch” is liable to be flipped again.