Following the Republicans’ Midterm Elections drubbing, Vice President JD Vance sent out an X post. It infuriated those who have spent years trying to convince an American president, Democratic or Republican, that overthrowing the Iranian regime was an urgent, easy-to-accomplish mission.
“The reason we lost is the [Iran] war,” Vance concluded.
Indeed.
President Donald Trump himself admitted as much the day after the election, even as he insisted he would not change a thing about his policy. And yet for people who have spent a good chunk of their careers lobbying for a conflict with Tehran, Vance’s obvious conclusion was a bridge too far.
Mark Levin, the conservative Fox News host, took to his keyboard in a fit of rage: “The same buffoons who screwed up our Iran operations with the phony and feckless peace negotiations are now blaming the midterms debacle on the Iran war (such as it is) and Israel.” Ari Fleischer, President George W. Bush’s former press secretary, used much the same argument. The reason Republicans were hammered, he responded, was because the United States was insufficiently committed to the conflict. In Fleisher’s words, “If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it.”
If you find these explanations vomit-inducing, you’re not the only one.
What we have here is a classic case of deflection. Simply put: The cheerleaders of a war that has cost Republicans their congressional majority, exacerbated cost-of-living difficulties, and produced another Middle East quagmire are desperate to avoid any and all responsibility for their policy. Ironically, these are some of the same people who made the same mistake during the Iraq War debacle nearly a quarter century ago.
For the rest of us who don’t have tunnel vision, however, the reality is clear: Voters connected Trump’s decision to wage war on Iran with their nagging economic problems. They aren’t wrong to do so. The numbers don’t lie.
In February, before the U.S. began dropping bombs, a gallon of regular gasoline cost $2.90 on average. Fast-forward to today, and the price has increased by nearly 49%, to $4.30. Diesel is even worse off, rising nearly 67% over the same time period. Inflation, which was at 2.4% in February 2026, is now at 3.7%, a spike that wouldn’t have occurred had energy costs not been as huge as they are today. And the reason energy costs have gotten so high? The war, and, in part, restricted energy supplies from Russia as a result of Ukrainian attacks. This isn’t complicated.
Nor should we take seriously the notion that Americans penalized Trump at the polls because he was too easy on Iran. Fleischer and Levin would have us believe that Republicans did so poorly because Trump listened to Vance and cut a deal with Iran over the summer (remember the memorandum of understanding?) instead of finishing the job militarily.
In short: It wasn’t the decision to go to war that hurt Trump, but rather his decision to suspend it.
This is the “don’t believe your lying eyes” argument. It’s nonsensical. As imperfect as the MOU with Iran was — the whole deal basically amounted to the U.S. paying off Tehran to stop obstructing traffic in the region’s waters — it did manage to loosen up the Strait of Hormuz for a time. The Iranians stopped firing on ships transiting the strait, giving more cargo tankers the confidence to make the trip. More crude oil was leaving the region during the weeks the MOU was in effect, and prices at the pump gradually fell. According to internal polling conducted by the Trump administration while the MOU was being negotiated, a 41% plurality of Americans supported the agreement, and two-thirds believed it would reduce pain at the pump.
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It was only when the deal collapsed, and the shooting resumed at a steady clip, that energy costs went up again. Jettisoning a ceasefire in favor of more bombing therefore wasn’t the answer. In fact, it could have resulted in more missile and drone strikes from the Iranians across a wider set of targets in the region, worsening the economic environment for Americans to an even greater extent.
Don’t buy the propaganda coming from pro-war circles. The Trump administration’s Iran policy is a mess, and it produced the electoral blowout we saw this week.