We are in the fog of war. Polls favor Democrats, who could capture both the House of Representatives and Senate. If Republicans lose Senate seats in Kansas, Iowa, and Texas, a bad night could become a rout.
Republicans insist the picture is less bleak than polling averages suggest. They point to questionable turnout models and surveys that underestimate their candidates. In Michigan, skepticism is justified because some polls were exposed as fabrications. Of course, that does not make unfavorable legitimate polls disappear.
Everything rests on turnout. Republicans must overcome historic midterm trends and President Donald Trump’s undeniably poor approval ratings. If they turn out their voters, the blue wave may fall short.
There is no better example than Michigan and the contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).
Rogers is within striking distance in what the Republican National Committee chairman called “the battleground” of the battleground states.
That alone is significant. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994, when Spencer Abraham rode a red wave to his only term. Before Abraham, the last GOP Senate victory was then-Sen. Robert P. Griffin’s reelection in 1972.
Rogers is running the first serious statewide Republican midterm operation since 2014, when Gov. Rick Snyder won reelection with 50.9% while Peters won his Senate seat with 54.6%.
The investment is visible on television. Rogers and supporting outside groups have spent $133.7 million on advertising, according to tracking from AdImpact Politics. But the operation extends well beyond the airwaves. Rogers says more than 7 million doors have been knocked on his behalf.
The mail started before absentee voting opened in late September. At my house, one or two pieces arrive weekly encouraging my household to return absentee ballots. That steady follow-through matters when voting stretches over weeks.
Rogers himself seems everywhere. His statewide bus tour reaches small towns outside the usual campaign circuit — places that previously might have rated only a second-string surrogate. The calculation is straightforward: Boost turnout and run up the margin in red counties.
Meanwhile, Democrats for Rogers is expanding his coalition, reaching Jewish voters uncomfortable with el Sayed’s antisemitism and ties to Islamic extremists and black Democrats in Detroit who want a senator more focused on the city’s west side than the West Bank.
After a decade of lackluster campaigns that sometimes failed even to send mail, the Rogers operation is impressive. Much of the credit belongs to top strategist Katie Walsh Shields and the others Rogers brought in after his 2024 loss.
El Sayed may still win, given the national political environment. But in a close race, a functioning ground game matters. So does a campaign willing to compete for voters its party has too often taken for granted or written off.
WILL THE REAL ABDUL EL SAYED PLEASE STAND UP?
Michiganders have long demonstrated a willingness to split their tickets. In 2014, they reelected a Republican governor and elected a Democratic senator. This year could produce the reverse.
Michigan could ultimately decide which party controls the Senate. If results elsewhere leave the majority hinging on this race, a Rogers victory could secure a 50-50 split, preserving Republican control through Vice President JD Vance’s tiebreaking vote.
Dennis Lennox is a columnist, political commentator, and Republican public affairs consultant. Follow @dennislennox on X.