North of $405 million will be spent on advertising in the final week of the midterm elections for the top 15 races in the House and Senate, an eye-popping figure that will only continue to climb ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.
The last-minute spending, based on data from ad-tracking firm AdImpact as of Wednesday, offers a window into where each party feels it can make the greatest eleventh-hour impression on voters.
Senate races
Republicans are on track to shell out more than Democrats in Senate races, with at least $143 million in ads from Oct. 27 through Nov. 3 for their top contests. The GOP’s greatest focus is on flipping Michigan’s open seat, reserving $25.5 million for Mike Rogers, followed by reelecting Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) with $24 million in reservations. Republican groups have $20 million earmarked in Texas to boost Ken Paxton.
Toward the bottom of the GOP’s Senate spending list is North Carolina’s open seat, with just $1.2 million to help former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, and Georgia with $2.3 million to support Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). Democrats were spending $6.5 million in North Carolina on former Gov. Roy Cooper and $4.3 million on Ossoff, but both Democratic candidates have maintained sizable polling leads throughout the election cycle.
Democrats are shelling out the most for the Ohio Senate race, with $20.3 million for former Sen. Sherrod Brown, meaning more than $44 million will flow into the race from both sides in the final days. The race has seen upwards of $500 million total from both parties.
Democrats also had $18.5 million set aside in Kansas to try to unseat Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and $16.4 million for Iowa’s open race. Democrats had so far reserved more than $119 million for the top 15 races in the final week.
Democrats aren’t spending much in Minnesota’s open seat, which Republicans have increasingly eyed to flip as the race has tightened in recent weeks. Less than $1 million was reserved compared to the Republicans’ $2 million in the blue-leaning state. Florida, a red state that some Democrats insist is still competitive, is also not much of a priority for the party, with less than $2 million spent. In Mississippi, once an afterthought that has crept onto the Senate battlefield but remains a long shot, Democrats have $2.7 million on the board. Republicans were spending around the same amount in Florida and just $1.4 million for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS).
South Carolina, a state that should be a layup for Senate Republicans, will see a combined more than $16 million pumped into its race from both sides in the campaign’s final days as the contest tightens between interim Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democrat Annie Andrews.
House races
In the House, Republicans were also on pace to dish out more than Democrats to the tune of nearly $73 million for their top races. Among them is Michigan’s 7th Congressional District with $7.3 million to help Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI), followed by $7.6 million to reelect Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in New York’s 17th Congressional District, and $5.9 million for Michigan’s open 10th Congressional District being vacated by gubernatorial candidate Rep. John James (R-MI).
Farther down, but still in the top 15 for combined ad spending, is $2.3 million for Iowa’s open 2nd Congressional District, being vacated by Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA). Democrats were spending $4.3 million. President Donald Trump won the district by double digits in 2024, and it was not initially thought to be a competitive seat, but a toxic political environment has put it in play for Democrats.
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Democrats were on track to spend more than $65 million across their top House contests, including more than $8 million to support Democrat Will Lawrence against Barrett in Michigan, $7.4 million to reelect Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, and $6.5 million for Florida’s open 22nd Congressional District.
Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District, a perennial swing district that has frequently evaded Democrats, is projected to flip from red to blue. Democrats are spending just $1.5 million to the GOP’s more than $5 million, with Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) having vacated the seat to run for governor.