Cook Political Report on Friday tilted 19 more House races away from Republicans, saying the GOP’s path to keeping control of the lower chamber in the November elections has “all but evaporated.”
The election forecaster’s announcement comes after it has shifted dozens of other races in both the House and Senate toward the Democratic Party this year. Experts have suggested Democrats are in a prime spot to regain the majority in the midterm elections on Nov. 3, as on average, the party in power, in this case the Republican Party, loses about 25 seats in the upper chamber during the off-year elections.
“Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House,” Cook Political Report wrote this week. “In other words, 220 seats are rated either Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat. Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican. That leaves 17 races rated as pure toss-ups.”
Aside from a dismal historical precedent Republicans are facing, which suggests they are set to face steep losses in the midterm elections, the GOP has also grappled this year with reaching voters on the economy, as the war in Iran drives up fuel prices, making messaging difficult.
In the latest predicted downturn for Republicans, the election forecaster moved 19 races toward Democrats. The changes include six districts, four of which are held by Republican incumbents, that Cook Political Report shifted from toss-up to lean Democrat.
That could signal trouble for the GOP lawmakers seeking reelection in those seats, including Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), Gabe Evans (R-CO), Jen Kiggans (R-VA) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI).
The forecaster is moving two other open seats from lean Republican to toss-up, tilting toward Democrat Zach Dembo in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District race against Ralph Alvarado, and toward Democrat Johnny Garcia in Texas’s 35th Congressional District race against Carlos De La Cruz.
Alaska’s only House seat, where Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK) is fending off a challenge from Bill Hill, went from likely Republican to lean Republican.
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, and Colorado’s 4th Congressional District also went from likely Republican to lean Republican. Reps. Shomari Figures (D-AL), Eli Crane (R-AZ), and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) represent those districts, respectively.
Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, where Republican David Flippo is battling Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson to succeed retiring Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV), and Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, where Republican Brandon Herrera and Democrat Katy Padilla Stout are vying to replace former Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), also went from likely Republican to lean Republican.
The ratings for North Carolina’s 3rd and 13th congressional districts changed from solid Republican to likely Republican. The districts are represented by Reps. Greg Murphy (R-NC) and Brad Knott (R-NC), respectively.
The ratings for California’s 13th Congressional District and Texas’s 28th Congressional District went from lean Democrat to likely Democrat. Reps. Adam Gray (D-CA) and Henry Cuellar (D-TX) represent those districts, respectively.
Cook Political Report previously shifted 11 House races toward Democrats on Oct. 16 and 18 more races in the lower chamber toward the blue party on Oct. 9, including in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Cook Political Report has also shifted multiple Senate races away from Republicans in key battleground states, such as North Carolina and New Hampshire. Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kansas mark other states where Republican Senate candidates are widely expected to win, but where blue challengers are giving them apparently steeper-than-expected competition.
THE SENATE SEAT MOST LIKELY TO FLIP
Another election forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has similarly predicted Democrats could make gains in the Senate and House on Nov. 3. On Tuesday, it changed the ratings for 28 House races to lean more Democrat.
Sabato’s had previously shifted several Senate races toward Democrats. In Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) faces a challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, the forecaster moved the race from toss-up to leans Democrat. It also moved South Carolina’s race, which features Republican Darline Graham Nordone against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews, from safe Republican to leans Republican.