Iowa’s tightly contested U.S. Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, which has been largely shaped by the Hawkeye State’s sizable agricultural economy, may be the deciding race to determine whether Democrats are able to take a majority in Congress after the November midterm elections
Hinson and Turek are in a dead heat to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA). According to the RealClear Politics average of the latest polls, Turek has a 1-point lead over his Republican opponent, well within the margin of error.
The contest between the two candidates and their respective visions for the state appears to have split the agriculture voting bloc, which has been a Republican stronghold in the state for the past several election cycles.
Turek has been able to capitalize on dissatisfaction among farmers and agricultural workers with President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have dampened the state’s export markets, as well as the war in Iran, which has caused a spike not only in diesel prices but also in fertilizer and other inputs.
Hinson, like many other Republicans across the country, has had the difficult job of distancing herself from the Trump administration’s economic policies that have hurt farmers without compromising her partisan identity.
But it’s unclear whether Hinson’s balancing act will be enough to convince the 52% of farmers who say the country is going in the wrong direction, according to September’s Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers.
Iowa agriculture feeds the world
Dozens of Iowans who spoke with the Washington Examiner ahead of Election Day said that Iowa “feeds the world,” a tagline that underscores agriculture’s importance to the state and is supported by the data.
In 2024, Iowa was the country’s leading exporter of pork, corn, and livestock feed, totaling $7 billion, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. It was the second-largest U.S. exporter of soybeans to the tune of $3.5 billion.
Iowa’s farm economy extends beyond the fields themselves, as roughly a quarter of jobs in the Hawkeye State are indirectly supported by the agriculture industry.
The nonpartisan Iowa-based policy group the Common Sense Institute estimates nearly half of the state’s transportation employment is supported by the agriculture sector. Another 2 in 5 manufacturing jobs depend on Iowa’s agriculture economy, even without a direct tie to farming.
Iowa’s agricultural sector has soft power in a cultural sense too, and both Senate candidates have attempted to highlight how they fit in.
One of Turek’s longer videos on his X profile features the Democratic Senate hopeful in a combine harvester with Marcus, a corn and soybean farmer in eastern Iowa. The two each criticize Hinson’s voting record in the House for supporting the Trump tariffs and the war in Iran.
Hinson, likewise, has highlighted in her campaign materials substantive policy positions that would benefit farmers, including supporting looser restrictions on ethanol quantities in gasoline and lowering input costs.
The parallel tactics from the candidates demonstrate how inescapable agriculture policy is in the Midwestern state, even when seeking national office.
Sherill Whisenand, a retired executive aide to former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, told the Washington Examiner at a Republican rally in Des Moines that the agriculture sector, at bottom, shapes what it means to be “Iowan.”
“I think the farm economy is so crucial,” Whisenand said. “Agriculture is so important. That is Iowa.”
Trump policies loom large
Tariff policies and the war in Iran loomed large over the final debate between Hinson and Turek on October 14, which was coincidentally the first day of early voting across Iowa.
The moderators asked five specific questions about agricultural policy during the hourlong discussion, but other topics, such as the state’s high rates of cancer and immigration policy, also brushed against farm interests.
Turek said twice during the debate that Iowans are facing a “farmageddon” with the high rate of family farm foreclosures across the state. The situation for small-scale farmers, Turek said, has only been exacerbated by the 10% tariff on soybeans and the 50% tariff on Canadian goods, which affects fertilizers like potash.
“We produce more soybeans here in Iowa than any other state,” Turek said. “Our farmers are hurting, and it is because of the tariffs, which Ashley Hinson voted in favor of five times.”
Hinson responded to Turek’s accusation by saying she has already used her position in the House and the “R” beside her name to advance the interests of Iowans with the president.
“I’m listening to their concerns, and when they do have an issue, I’m advocating directly to the administration,” Hinson said. “I talked to President Trump just last Wednesday about soybeans and making sure we are getting that deal across the finish line.”
But multiple times Hinson has also signaled she is willing to go against her fellow Republicans, including the president, when it is in Iowa’s best interest.
In September, when Hinson received her endorsement from the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Republican hopeful said she will “always support Iowa agriculture, even when it means bucking my own party.”
During the final Senate debate on Oct. 14, Hinson made good on that statement by disagreeing with Trump’s decision earlier that day to remove sanctions from Russian diesel to lower global prices and instead would have advocated policies that advanced Iowa farm interests.
“We need to lower diesel prices, but I don’t think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it,” she said. “I think we should be doing it by lowering the gas tax temporarily, making sure we’re actually looking at potentially a diesel rebate program for our producers, investing in America’s biofuels, which is the homegrown answer that we have right here in Iowa.”