In 2015, when then-Secretary of State John Kerry, among others, negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, Marco Rubio was a U.S. senator from Florida. Rubio told Kerry that he would support the “nuclear deal” with Iran if it were amended to state that the Islamic Republic of Iran recognized Israel. Kerry rejected the amendment.
Today, Rubio, now secretary of state, understands the many flaws of the JCPOA, which has since been terminated. He has a better, more serious anti-nuclear document to negotiate with the Iranians. If Rubio’s offer to Iran were identical to President Barack Obama’s JCPOA version with language that Iran would recognize Israel, it would be a giant step forward in U.S.-Iran relations that could lead to peace in the Middle East.
Iran hates Israel so much that it is willing to endure the economically devastating U.S. naval blockade, Operation Economic Outcast, and the possibility of more military action rather than recognize the Jewish state as a part of the plan to end its nuclear program.
A Trump-Rubio peace deal with Iran must also avoid other embarrassing JCPOA mistakes. Unlike Kerry, Rubio should not codify an Iranian fatwa into an anti-nuclear agreement.
In 2015, Reuters reported that Kerry said Iran didn’t want a nuclear weapon. “The ayatollah has issued a fatwa …. declaring no one should ever possess a nuclear weapon in Iran,” Kerry was told by unnamed Iranian sources. “[L]et’s take the fatwa and codify it into the agreement,” Kerry eagerly suggested. The codified fatwa became the JCPOA’s “permanent prohibition on Iran ever developing or even working towards a nuclear weapons capability.”
The JCPOA omitted the text of the ayatollah’s fatwa against nuclear weapons. The JCPOA included Kerry’s English interpretation of an antinuclear fatwa that Iranian negotiators seeking sanctions relief presented to him. Based on this unnamed Iranian source, Kerry dutifully codified the fatwa into the JCPOA. Case closed, according to Obama and Kerry, on Iran ever having a nuclear weapon. The late ayatollah told them so.
Fatwas are slippery things. The ayatollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, or both, had previously reversed a fatwa against developing chemical weapons in their 8-year war with Iraq. Fatwa or not, Iran is known to have chemical weapons production facilities. Since 1997, Iran has been a signatory to the United Nations Chemical Weapons Convention.
Members of Congress, including Rubio, opposed the Obama-era JCPOA because it allowed Iran to become a nuclear threshold state and guaranteed it a nuclear weapon in ten years, if not sooner. Other members questioned the legality of Kerry’s codification of the ayatollah’s fatwa. Others opposed the Obama administration’s release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for signing the JCPOA.
Once signed, the JCPOA authorized the release of an estimated $6 billion in frozen financial assets in Oman. Obama approved releasing $1.7 billion. This was highly controversial. Although the funds belonged to the Iranians, some believed the money was paid by U.S. taxpayers. Social media, political pundits, and others contributed to this misperception.
Because Obama promised Congress that payments to Iran under the JCPOA would not be made through financial institutions, the payment was made in hard currency. News photos of “pallets” of cash damaged Obama’s political reputation to a degree. It contributed to the public perception that Obama misled Americans about the Iran deal.
Rubio’s political instincts may tell him to have Congress approve the Trump administration’s antinuclear plan with Iran. Rather than address the JCPOA’s many flaws, Kerry arrogantly bypassed Congress and turned to the U.N.
The U.S., the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, and Germany, plus the European Union, approved sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for supposed limits on its nuclear program. The final deal was highly controversial.
In his first term, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA. Trump felt that it was a bad deal for the U.S. since it guaranteed that Iran could develop nuclear weapons. Iran violated U.N. sanctions by misleading international inspectors about its nuclear operations. Within two months of the deal’s agreed implementation, Iran tested long-range ballistic missiles.
In his two terms, Trump has consistently maintained that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Rubio has long held the same position.
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James Patterson is a foreign affairs writer, analyst, and commentator in the Washington, D.C. area.