INSIDE TRUMP’S JOB APPROVAL CRISIS. It’s been said many times that a president’s job approval rating is one of the most important predictors of how his party will perform in midterm elections. President Donald Trump’s rating is very low at the moment — 38.7% approval versus 59.4% disapproval in the RealClearPolitics average of polls — which does not bode well for Republicans. But in what way is it low? With what groups of voters does the president have a particular problem? A new poll from Fox News gives some answers.
First, the poll found Trump’s overall job approval rating to be below the RealClearPolitics average — 36%. A rating doesn’t get that low without being pretty depressed among many component groups.
Start with the places Trump is doing well. The Fox poll identified seven groups with whom the president has a job approval rating of 50% or higher. First, there are Republicans (76% approval). Then Make America Great Again Republicans (95%). Then conservatives (64%). Then, very conservatives (82%). Then, white men without a college degree (50%). Then white evangelicals (61%). And finally, the military (53%).
One thing to note is that even with the high approval ratings among those groups, most are lower than they should be. One obvious example is Republicans — Trump should be doing better than 76% job approval with his own party. If that number were 10 points higher, the midterm outlook would be better for the GOP.
The same is true with the other 50-plus percentage groups. For example, Trump should obviously be doing better than his 50% approval with white men without a college degree, who formed one of his main bases of support in all his elections. In addition, Trump is at 40% approval with white women without a degree. Put that together, and the Fox pollsters found that Trump is at 44% approval overall with white voters without a degree. Then remember that Trump won 66% of those voters in 2024, according to exit polls.
Now look at the groups among whom Trump is doing badly. It’s no surprise that his approval among Democrats is 2%, or that it is 5% among liberals. But he should be doing better than his 22% approval rating with independents and his 32% rating with women. In 2024, Trump won 46% of independents and 45% of women.
And more of Trump’s numbers: non-MAGA GOP (47%). Voters under 30 (25%). Voters over 65 (44%). Suburban voters (36%). Every one of those numbers should be higher.
Beyond that, there is intensity. In the overall job approval number, just 19% strongly approve of Trump, while 50% strongly disapprove. That’s a pretty big gap between the people at the far ends of each side. And in the Republican voters category, just 43% strongly approve, while 33% somewhat approve. That’s not great, either — just 43% of the president’s own party strongly approve of the job he is doing.
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The short version is, the poll is terrible for Trump. It was terrible in lots of other ways, including voters’ views on the cost of living and their personal financial situations. It is not unfair to say that on every significant question, Trump’s numbers are worryingly low.
Not surprisingly, because he is a human being, Trump likes to focus on the good news. Ninety-five percent support among MAGA Republicans! That’s great! But remember this: While it is hard to find any definitive numbers, it’s likely that somewhere between 50% and 70% of Republicans identify as MAGA. That means Trump is doing gangbusters with half, or maybe just under three-quarters, of his party while struggling with the large majority of the country that is not MAGA Republican. That’s not a good way to enter into a national election. When one asks about which groups Trump’s job approval rating has fallen into dangerously low territory, the answer is: a lot of them.