President Donald Trump began October campaigning in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama, three states he won in 2024 by a combined margin of more than 78 percentage points.
Yet with control of the Senate at stake, Trump is spending valuable campaign time in states that should be safely Republican instead of concentrating exclusively on battlegrounds such as North Carolina, Iowa, and Michigan. On Oct. 1, he appeared at a Peterbilt plant in Denton, Texas, before traveling to Oklahoma. He also campaigned in Alabama the following day and returned to Texas the next week for a San Antonio appearance.
That alone shows how dramatically the political environment has changed for Republicans.
The Cook Political Report now considers control of the Senate a true toss-up. Five Republican-held seats — Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas — are “Toss Ups,” while North Carolina is rated “Lean Democratic.” The Tar Heel State’s Senate seat is open due to the pending retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC).
For much of 2026, the talk of the midterm elections was whether the Republicans would lose their narrow House majority. The Senate was safer, and there was even discussion among political pros of a GOP gain. Republicans entered the cycle with a 53-47 advantage, while Democrats also had to defend competitive seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
The map of Senate pickup opportunities for Democrats has widened considerably since then, and Texas is the most glaring example.
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a series of recent public polls. The University of Texas Senate polling tracker shows Talarico ahead by 2 points in Fox News polling, 6 in New York Times-Siena, 6 in NPR-Marist, and 1 in a Texas Southern University/YouGov survey.
That does not mean Texas has suddenly become a Democratic state. Republicans have been scared there before. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of defeating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), losing 50.9% to 48.3%.
But Cruz was an experienced national campaigner with an established political organization and a loyal constituency. Paxton enters the general election after surviving impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 and years of controversies that have followed him through his tenure as attorney general.
Even if Paxton ultimately survives, Republicans are being forced to spend money protecting a Senate seat in Texas that could otherwise go toward Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, or another state where the party is already fighting to hold seats. Cook Political Report moved Texas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” in August, noting that public and private polling had made it increasingly difficult to consider the race anything less than competitive.
North Carolina is further along in the other direction.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has maintained a sizable polling advantage over Republican Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee. Republicans have accordingly been forced to make decisions about how much more money to pour into a race where Cooper has consistently led.
Iowa is much closer. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) have traded small leads in recent polling, with most results falling inside the margin of error. The race was considered safer for Republicans earlier in the year, but the Cook Political Report moved it from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” alongside Texas.
The Ohio special election to finish out the remaining two years of the Ohio Senate term that Vice President JD Vance vacated has become another closely watched race. Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, attempting a comeback after losing his seat in 2024, has held narrow leads in several recent polls over Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH). Cook Political Report moved the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” in April, citing polling that showed Brown and Husted essentially even.
The stakes extend beyond the remaining two years of Vance’s term. Whoever wins in November will head into the regularly scheduled 2028 Senate election for a full, six-year term as the incumbent.
Alaska is competitive as well. Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) in a state Trump won easily. Cook Political Report rates the race a “Toss Up,” with Peltola attempting to recreate the coalition that previously elected her to the House in a state where Republican candidates still retain a partisan advantage.
Maine might look bad right now, but Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has spent much of her career outperforming both national political trends and her polling. The current RealClearPolitics average has her essentially tied with Democrat Troy Jackson.
That looks bad, except when examining recent political history. And 2020 provides a glimpse of how strong Collins is in her home state. Polling repeatedly showed Democrat Sara Gideon running ahead of Collins, sometimes comfortably. Collins won by more than 8 points. Collins may not win by that margin again, but her history suggests a tied Maine race should be viewed differently from a tied open-seat contest elsewhere.
Sluggish economy under Trump is hurting Republicans
What’s causing the heartburn among GOP candidates across the country right now is the state of the economy. Trump ran on affordability in 2024. It was his strongest asset after several years of high interest rates and higher prices. The economy has now become an albatross to Trump and the GOP.
Fuel prices have risen sharply during the war with Iran. Regular gasoline is over $4 per gallon. Diesel prices are even higher, and that gets passed on to consumers through higher prices, since trucks handle approximately 72% of all freight tonnage in the United States. Mortgage interest rates reached 7.28%, the highest since 2023. Trump routinely claims other countries pay for his tariffs, but an analysis showed consumers and businesses pay 90% of those costs.
Trump’s numbers on the economy have plummeted as a result. A recent Associated Press-NORC poll found that only 26% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy, and 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living. Nearly two-thirds said his policies bore at least some responsibility for high prices.
As for losing the Senate, consideration of Democrat-led legislation is not the chief concern.
Even if Democrats captured both chambers, Trump would retain his veto power and would likely use it often. Democrats would have nowhere near the two-thirds majorities required to override him, limiting their ability to enact major legislation over his objections.
The Senate’s power over nominations is another matter.
A Democratic majority would control the Judiciary Committee and the floor schedule. Trump’s judicial nominees could be delayed or denied votes. District and appellate court vacancies could remain open. If a Supreme Court vacancy occurred during the final two years of Trump’s presidency, Democrats would likely just not take it up. They would merely point to the Feb. 13, 2016, to Jan. 20, 2017 precedent at the tail of President Barack Obama’s administration. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), then Senate majority leader, blocked consideration or a vote for Obama’s choice, Merrick Garland, arguing it should be done after the presidential election.
The same problem would apply throughout the administration. Cabinet replacements, ambassadors, senior Justice Department officials, regulatory commissioners, and other presidential appointments requiring Senate confirmation would face a Democratic majority.
Then come the investigations. Democratic committee chairmen would gain subpoena power and broad authority to investigate the administration, including its handling of the war in Iran, immigration enforcement, tariffs, and federal agencies.
A Democratic House would also face pressure from the left wing of the party to impeach Trump again. Senate Democrats could have considerably less enthusiasm for another impeachment fight. Conviction would still require 67 votes, making removal impossible without significant Republican support. At the same time, the issues driving the 2026 electorate have centered much more on prices and the economy than another confrontation over impeachment, and Democrats would want to carry that into 2028.
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For most of this year, Republicans worried about losing the House. With less than a month remaining before Election Day, the Senate is part of the problem, too. Republicans are fighting for seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, and Texas. At the same time, a president who carried Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama by a wide margin has spent the start of October campaigning in all three.
That is a very different map from the one Republicans expected to be defending.
Jay Caruso (@JayCaruso) is a writer living in Florida.