American and Russian officials have discussed bringing a U.S. investor into the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Reuters reported Thursday. The discussions involved U.S. envoy Jared Kushner and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev. How far they discussed Nord Stream, specifically, remains murky. A U.S. official described a deal as unlikely in the medium term. Existing sanctions and European opposition stand in its way. There would also be significant bipartisan congressional concern about any agreement.
Still, reopening discussions about bringing Russian gas back to Europe is inherently counterproductive.
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline carried Russian gas beneath the Baltic Sea and directly to Germany. It entered service in 2011. Nord Stream 2 was designed to double the route’s annual capacity to 110 billion cubic meters. By bypassing Ukraine and Poland, the pipelines threatened to increase Germany’s and Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and strip Kyiv of transit fees. Warsaw and the Baltic capitals saw a project serving German industry at the expense of European security. They turned out to be right.
The first Trump administration sanctioned the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, citing excessive European dependence on Russian gas. It made sense that a country underwriting European security against Russia wouldn’t tolerate its allies increasing their dependence on that same threat. However, the Biden administration then waived those sanctions, allowing construction to be completed. Then, in another about-face, with Russian troops massing along Ukraine’s borders, Washington reintroduced restrictions in February 2022. Germany, which had seen no problem pursuing the project even after Russia invaded eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, finally suspended its certification just before Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine. A few months later, a series of underwater explosions damaged the pipelines.
European dependence on Russian energy has long illustrated the strategic mistakes the continent made in its dealings with Moscow. In 2021, the year before the full-scale invasion, the European Union imported approximately 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas — around 45% of its gas imports and roughly 40% of its consumption. Germany bought more than half of its gas from Russia. Berlin increased its dependence on Russian gas while pursuing its nuclear phaseout and reducing coal use. It built an economic relationship around the assumption that Moscow would remain a reliable supplier because selling gas served its commercial interests. That calculation gave Russian President Vladimir Putin considerable influence over Europe’s economies, especially its biggest one.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed how costly that dependence had become. Europe was forced to find alternative suppliers, build new infrastructure, and absorb higher energy prices. The dependence turned into strategic miscalculation, with economic and political consequences across the continent.
Europe has since reduced Russia’s share of its gas imports. They fell to just 13% of total imports in 2025. Restoring trade with Russia would put those gains at risk. It would also hurt American interests. After all, Europe, including Turkey, bought 53% of all U.S. liquefied natural gas exports in 2024. Returning Russian pipeline supplies could displace American companies.
Those Trump administration officials who are leading negotiations with Russia seem to believe that economic cooperation may convince Moscow to abandon its ambitions to control Ukraine. But Nord Stream 2 itself offers an example of why that calculation is unlikely to work. If Russia valued business ventures and foreign investment more than its political ambitions, it would have continued making money from projects such as Nord Stream rather than launching a war that jeopardized them. But blessed are the believers.
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A pipeline concession, if granted while Moscow continues to bomb Ukraine, would hand the Kremlin revenue and leverage without requiring it to change its behavior. Moscow would cash the chips and continue the war. In turn, any indication that Washington is prepared to make economic concessions on Moscow’s terms invites the Kremlin to conclude that patience pays and that Washington will eventually abandon Ukraine to Moscow’s designs. Such calculations can only prolong the war.
The wiser course is the one Trump himself charted in 2019. Keep Nord Stream closed and Moscow’s leverage over Europe at bay.