Election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted 18 midterm election races in favor of Democratic candidates on Friday, with just under one month until voters head to the polls on Election Day.
“The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats flip a net of nine to 19 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 224 to 234 seats in 2027,” Cook Political Report’s Erin Covey wrote in her analysis.
The forecast shifted four prior “Leans Republican” into toss-ups. These shifts to toss-ups occurred in Iowa’s open 2nd Congressional District; Michigan’s 4th Congressional District, held by Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI); North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, held by Rep. Don Davis (D-NC); and Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, held by Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA).
In Iowa’s second district, Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James is taking on Republican former state Rep. Joe Mitchell to see who will replace Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), who is leaving the U.S. House and running for Senate. Huizenga is facing a challenger from Democratic former Michigan State Rep. Sean McCann, and polling has been tight throughout the race from pollsters of both parties.
In Virginia, Wittman is facing off against Democratic candidate Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, who has seen a large influx of establishment money and campaigning supporting her race.
In North Carolina’s first district, Republican candidate Laurie Buckhout was expected to have the wind at her sails after the state redistricted its map to make Davis’s seat more GOP-friendly. But Covey wrote that the “wide gap in enthusiasm between Democratic and Republican voters in this working-class district” could boost Davis back into the lower chamber in 2027.
Mitchell, Huizenga, Wittman, and Buckhout are all endorsed by President Donald Trump.
The election forecaster also shifted five incumbent races from “toss up” to “Leans Democratic,” marking a boon for incumbent blue dog Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) against her Republican challenger, Washington State Sen. John Braun. However, the shift marks a negative forecast for the four Republican incumbents affected by the “Leans Democratic” shifts in their races: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA), Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), and Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA).
HERE ARE THE SEATS BOTH PARTIES ARE PULLING MONEY FROM AHEAD OF NOVEMBER
The two bipartisan co-chairmen of the House Problem Solvers Caucus, Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Tom Suozzi (D-NY) also had their races shifted in favor of the Democratic Party. The shift is a positive for Suozzi, who is attempting to ward off his Trump-endorsed Republican challenger, former New York State Rep. Mike LiPetri, for the second time — but a negative for Fitzpatrick, who is facing an influx of Democratic Party money boosting his challenger, Democratic Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie.
“In the final weeks of the election, Republicans have hoped that a massive ad campaign effort could dent Democratic candidates’ images and shore up Republicans struggling to free themselves of the anchor of President Donald Trump. With less than four weeks to go, that heavy spending has yet to move the needle,” Covey wrote in her analysis.