On Feb. 29, 2008, Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton first aired her famous “3 a.m.” campaign ad. Her Senate colleague Barack Obama had breakout momentum, which Clinton desperately wanted to break. Obama had served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee but missed nearly half of its votes. Clinton’s gambit didn’t work, of course, but her ad remains a memorable one.
Today, Democrats build their campaign on rage against both President Donald Trump and Israel. That is politically effective, but it places polemic over policy. If the Democrats plan to assume the responsibility of rule and resume a world in which the United States manages crises, they must demonstrate leadership. Ukraine, Iran, China, and Cuba represent crises about which every candidate should have detailed positions and nuanced plans. What happens if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons or if Iran and its proxies continue to impede freedom of navigation? How far will the U.S. go to defend Taiwan against a blockade or an invasion? If Cuba collapses, will the U.S. intervene?
Increasingly, though, it looks as though the 3 a.m. phone call for a new administration could be Ethiopia. War has resumed across northern Ethiopia. Unlike the 2020-2022 Tigray war, the current war is not just a civil war. Eritrean troops are already inside Ethiopia, fighting against the central government. Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt appear poised to turn the new war into a regional one.
The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees consistently has the best insight into looming crises, especially as Western embassies hunker down. Ethiopia already shelters over 1 million refugees and asylum-seekers from Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, even before factoring in internal displacement. Conflicts in the north and localized tension elsewhere have forced millions more from their homes. According to UNHCR, 60% of the refugees are children; armed groups in Tigray are recruiting underage refugees. As U.S. cutbacks hit — the U.S. gives no direct funds to support UNHCR programs in Ethiopia — Sudanese and South Sudanese militias are also seeking to recruit the newly displaced. UNHCR-Ethiopia has reduced its operational footprint to 10 offices in a country 60% larger than Texas. It anticipates further reductions in the coming year.
Broader warfare in the Horn of Africa could bring famine and displace millions of people along the Red Sea littoral just as the Houthis destabilize the Bab el Mandeb trade artery. As the nightmare situation becomes reality, it gets worse. Open war between Egypt and Ethiopia could lead to Egypt’s collapse and bring instability to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. Refugee flows will jumpstart terrorism and cartel recruitment across the Middle East and eventually Europe. Piracy will flourish in the Red Sea, and the cost of shipping will skyrocket, making current food inflation seem quaint.
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Isolationism might be in vogue in some Washington corners, but ignoring Africa and defunding refugee programs can raise the costs.
Polemics might fuel politics, but they do not create leaders. It is time for serious Republicans and Democrats to discuss the day after, and how to forestall or mitigate a conflict that could make Ukraine appear a walk in the park. Keeping refugees in place would be a good place to start.
Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, and a contributor to Beltway Confidential.