Democrats are increasingly optimistic about former state Sen. Troy Jackson’s chances of ousting Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) in November, a race that could prove critical to the party’s hopes of taking control of the Senate.
That outlook would have been difficult to imagine just four months ago, when Graham Platner suspended his campaign amid allegations of sexual assault and rape, throwing Democrats’ momentum in Maine into choppy waters.
But with 33 days until Election Day, Democrats once again see an opening to flip the seat, believing Jackson has emerged as a viable challenger to the longtime Republican senator.
“People aren’t really talking about Graham Platner anymore, and they’re really talking about the economy, Trump, and you know whether Susan Collins is still an effective senator for us or not,” Democratic state Sen. Joe Baldacci told the Washington Examiner.
Maine Democrats rallied around Jackson to be their standard-bearer following Platner’s exit from the race in July, with Jackson quickly emerging as a front-runner to replace him on the ballot.
Since then, Jackson has run his campaign on a compressed timeline not unlike that of former Vice President Kamala Harris’s ill-fated 2024 presidential campaign (something she herself mentioned in her endorsement of Jackson). But Democrats are hoping Jackson’s campaign, without the baggage that accompanied Platner’s candidacy, will have a different outcome.
“Voters are looking for something new, and the Collins magic is just going to run out,” Jim Kessler, a former staffer to Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and executive vice president of policy at the center-left Third Way, told the Washington Examiner. “Everybody has their time when you know when you can no longer beat the odds, and Troy Jackson’s running a campaign that should be good enough to do it.”
Platner garnered national attention early in his campaign as a charismatic, working-class political newcomer running as a populist, anti-establishment Democrat. Jackson, a fifth-generation Maine logger, has not enjoyed the same level of viral popularity so far in his campaign, instead having a more subdued Senate run.
“That’s him being authentic,” Baldacci said. “I would say there’s less — if you want to say pizzazz, there’s less pizzazz, but there’s more substance, and a lot more substance, and I think that will count for even more than the pizzazz.”
That’s not to say his campaign has not been without missteps. A recent video posted by his campaign that featured the Maine Democrat drinking boba tea was widely panned on social media as “cringey.”
The ad shows Jackson being asked, “Republicans spend $46 million on these TV ads. Who’s gonna be convinced by that?” as a side-eye emoji pops up on the screen and Jackson drinks boba tea.
“The 1 percenters,” Jackson responds, as photos of Collins and Tesla CEO Elon Musk appear on the screen.
“Troy Jackson needs to win but videos like this are unhelpful and cringey,” liberal influencer Harry Sisson wrote on X. “Please change it up! No boba tea!”
Kessler expressed to the Washington Examiner that Jackson “needs to run his own race as his own person.”
“I would just say for the consultants from Washington, you’re trying to get the best out of who he is authentically, but you know also he’s never run a race like this before,” Kessler said. “Ultimately, look, it’s the candidate that makes the decision. It’s not the consultants. … It’s the candidate that makes the decision. And I don’t think he’s going to win or lose based on boba tea. And listen, in southern Maine, they’re drinking, they’re drinking boba tea.”
Jackson was also forced to issue an apology on Tuesday after he said it is “unfortunate” that Jewish residents do not like to call the war in Gaza a genocide.
“I believe what’s happening in Gaza is genocide, and I also understand that word carries particular weight for many Jewish families given the Holocaust — the genocide of six million Jews,” Jackson said in a statement. “In trying to acknowledge that, I misspoke and made a generalization about Jewish Mainers’ views that doesn’t reflect what I meant to say.”
The war in Gaza and support for Israel resulted in stark divisions within the Democratic Party in the 2024 election and in the 2026 Democratic primaries. But now, heading for the general elections, Democrats are faced with appealing to undecided and more moderate voters who don’t typically agree with the party’s left flank on Israel.
“This is going to be an issue for all Democrats that ran in primaries, because their language on Israel and Gaza appeal to a very activist Democratic base, but almost nobody else in the electorate,” Kessler said. “But yeah, I mean, these are the types of things that candidates try to exploit on the other side, and when you’re apologizing, you’re not talking about what you want to talk about.”
Polling has shown Jackson and Collins in a tight race, with different polls showing both candidates leading the other. A spread of polls compiled by RealClearPolling shows Jackson leading Collins by 0.2% as of Oct. 1, with Jackson at 47.5% and Collins at 47.3%.
Still, polling has underestimated Collins’s support in Maine before. In 2020, polls showed Collins trailing then-opponent Sara Gideon by several points. A Quinnipiac poll published in September 2020 had Collins behind by 12 points.
Collins ultimately won reelection in November by 9 points, well overperforming what polling had predicted.
More than $185 million has been spent in the race, with Republicans infusing $110 million while Democrats have spent $75 million, according to AdImpact. Jackson’s campaign has spent almost $13 million, while Collins has spent $9 million.
The spending advantage is heavily in Collins’s favor, but Democrats are hoping the low approval ratings of President Donald Trump and the war in Iran will help Jackson get over the finish line.
“I think GOP incumbents like Collins are treading in dangerous waters right now because Trump is just so unpopular now,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon told the Washington Examiner. “That I just think the forces of gravity, you know, favor Democratic candidates like Jackson, and unless Collins finds a way to reverse that, she’s going to be in big trouble.”
TROY JACKSON, NOW PUSHING AFFORDABILITY MESSAGE, VOTED TO RAISE TAXES IN MAINE
Blake Kernen, a spokeswoman for Collins, pointed to Jackson’s record in the state legislature, during which he voted to adopt a state budget that raised the tax burden on everyday residents, as previously reported by the Washington Examiner.
“Mainers were paying more while Troy Jackson was taking campaign money from the companies sending them the bills,” Kernen said. “He needs to explain why, under his leadership in Augusta, Maine’s electricity rates skyrocketed as he was accepting corporate donations from electric companies and prescription drug prices got higher as he accepted corporate donations from pharmaceutical companies.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to Jackson’s campaign for this story.