Eleven House races shifted toward Democrats in Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings Tuesday, another sign of the difficult political environment the GOP faces with just over a month until the midterm elections.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics election forecaster moved all 11 contests in Democrats’ direction as the party continues to lead Republicans in national polling. The changes build on a series of recent shifts toward Democrats in the House as the party looks to regain control of the chamber.
Virginia saw the biggest changes as three incumbent Republicans saw their advantage slipping from their grasp. Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), John McGuire (R-VA), and Rob Wittman (R-VA) all saw their races shifted to the left by the election forecaster. Kiggans’s race moved from a toss-up to “leans Democrat,” McGuire’s race moved from “leans” to “likely” Republican, and Wittman’s race moved from leaning Republican to a toss-up.
Similar to Kiggans, Rep. Ryan McKenzie (R-PA) saw his Pennsylvania district move from a toss-up to “leans Democrat.”
In other parts of the country, Reps. Greg Murphy (R-NC) and Mike Carney (R-OH) had their races moved from “safe” to “likely” Republican. Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-MO) district, which sits west of St. Louis, was shifted from “likely” to “leans” Republican.
The open races for Montana’s 1st Congressional District, Maine’s 2nd District, and Kentucky’s 6th District also shifted to the left.
In California, Rep. Derek Tran’s (D-CA) district became bluer, moving from “leans” to “likely” Democrat.
The ratings changes paint a bleak outlook for Republicans in November and come as President Donald Trump and the party attempt to energize voters and focus attention on the economy, including the president’s promise to send every U.S. adult a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
THE SENATE SEAT MOST LIKELY TO FLIP
Despite the GOP’s best efforts, the midterm elections are increasingly looking like the Democrats’ to lose. Recent polling from NBC News found Democrats hold a 5-percentage-point lead over Republicans in the midterm elections. Voters prefer Democrats by 50%-45%, 7 percentage points lower than before the 2018 midterm elections.
Democrats need to flip just three seats to regain the House majority, and with fewer than 50 days until Election Day, they look poised to win the chamber for the first time since 2020.