Democrat James Talarico leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 5 points in a new Texas Senate race poll.
The poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, surveying 1,007 likely Texas voters from Sept. 19 to 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%, had Talarico at 49%, Paxton at 44%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3%, and 3% undecided. Talarico also boasted a 32-point lead among independents. He led with black, Latino, under-55, college-educated, and male and female voters, while Paxton led only with 55 and over and white voters.
Notably, the race was the only race surveyed where Republicans were behind their Democratic counterparts. Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points in the gubernatorial race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by 3 points in the attorney general’s race, and Republican Bo French leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 1 point in the Texas railroad commissioner race.
As polling has spurred worry from Republicans, the party has begun raising significant funds to boost Paxton’s chances. Texas PAC, which has links to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), has pledged $120 million and could send as much as another $80 million.
Democrats, who have long dreamed of returning to a statewide office in Texas, a feat they haven’t accomplished since 1993, have likewise poured funds into the race. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) Senate Majority PAC launched the Texas-focused PAC Texas Forever last week to further assist Talarico.
SCHUMER LAUNCHES NEW PAC TO BOOST JAMES TALARICO’S CHANCES IN TEXAS
Talarico was doing laps around Paxton in funding before any outside intervention. His campaign has raised $72 million since the beginning of 2025, compared to Paxton’s $16.8 million.
With 37 days to go until the midterm elections, Republicans still have substantial vulnerabilities to exploit in Talarico, such as his heterodox religious views and left-wing social views, mostly expressed in previous years, which have been a favorite target of GOP attacks. President Donald Trump has adopted the moniker “Talafreako” to describe the Texas Democrat.