Every few years, academic circles and state-backed media on the Chinese mainland resurrect the prospect of a “peaceful reunification” under the framework of “One Country, Two Systems.” Recently, cross-strait academic circles discussed a 12-point proposal floated by mainland scholars mapping out a post-unification reality for Taiwan. The proposal suggested timelines for disarmament and local governance structures. It was quickly amplified by Beijing’s State Council Taiwan Affairs Office as a sign of growing civil discussion, as highlighted by reports from the Global Times.
To some international observers, these periodic calls to examine a Hong Kong-style governorship for Taiwan sound like a pragmatic compromise to avoid a major global conflict. Proponents point to Hong Kong’s history as a financial hub. They suggest that a multidecade timeline of autonomy could safely bridge the gap between Beijing and Taipei. However, this entire premise ignores the structural and political realities of the region. The legal and military realities of Taiwan make a Hong Kong-style arrangement unworkable for the island’s 24 million citizens.
To understand why the model cannot function, one must look at the outcomes in the city where it was implemented. When the United Kingdom handed over Hong Kong in 1997, the framework was designed to guarantee a high degree of autonomy for 50 years. Instead, it took less than 25 years for Beijing to alter it. The implementation of the 2020 national security law and the subsequent passage of Article 23 legislation in 2024 restricted political dissent, affected independent journalism, and subjected the city’s judicial apparatus to mainland control.
Modern Hong Kong has experienced notable brain drain and capital flight. This has drastically changed its status as a free gateway to Asia. For the Taiwanese public, watching Hong Kong’s absorption was a turning point. Public opinion polling tracked regularly by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council shows that an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese — regularly exceeding 80% to 90% — reject “One Country, Two Systems.” The political consensus in Taipei is clear. Beijing’s promises of long-term autonomy are not seen as credible.
Furthermore, comparing Taiwan to Hong Kong ignores a fundamental distinction in sovereignty and international law. Hong Kong was a British crown colony with an appointed governor and no standing army. It had no independent legal claim to sovereignty when its lease expired. Taiwan, conversely, is a de facto sovereign nation operating officially as the Republic of China. It has its own constitution, its own currency, a functional military, and an independent judiciary. It has never been governed by the Chinese Communist Party at any point in its history. Asking Taiwan to accept a Beijing-appointed governorship is a demand for a democratic state to voluntarily surrender its existing sovereignty.
This reality shapes Taiwan’s positioning on the global stage. A common international misunderstanding is that the world views Taiwan as part of a “One China” system governed by Beijing. In reality, the global order relies on a diplomatic framework known as “Strategic Ambiguity.” Major democratic powers, including the United States, maintain a distinct “One China” policy — which merely acknowledges Beijing’s territorial claims without endorsing them.
Within this framework, Taiwan has already made significant compromises. It sacrifices diplomatic recognition. It endures the indignity of competing as “Chinese Taipei” at the Olympics. It operates its global missions under proxy economic titles solely to preserve its de facto independence. Taiwan restrains itself from rewriting its constitution or changing its name to maintain regional stability. This concession satisfies international allies who demand stability in global trade lanes and semiconductor supply chains.
Even prominent cross-strait advocates who favor dialogue over conflict recognize the flaw in Beijing’s formula. As Taiwanese scholar Chang Ya-chung pointed out at Beijing’s Xiangshan Forum, covered by the South China Morning Post, trying to force “One Country, Two Systems” onto Taiwan fails because it ignores the concept of political parity. It treats reunification as a corporate takeover where the stronger side dictates terms, rather than a negotiation between equal political entities. Without mutual trust or institutional equality, any discussion of post-unification governance is unviable.
When mainland scholars promote specific, detailed proposals for cross-strait civil discourse — such as the recent academic points analyzed by Pekingnology — they are engaging in a political campaign designed to normalize the idea of Taiwan’s subjugation. They are testing the waters to see if Western resolve or Taiwanese determination will yield under pressure.
The middle-ground options are disappearing. For decades, the framework of “One China, with Different Interpretations” allowed both sides to coexist. However, Beijing has increasingly stripped away the different interpretations clause. It demands Taiwan accept that “China” means the People’s Republic of China only. Consequently, Taiwan’s electorate has turned away from this compromise.
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The Hong Kong model is not an option; its core promises have been dismantled. A “One China” integration is not an option; a free, democratic society cannot be integrated into a centralized surveillance state.
Geopolitical reality points to one conclusion: An independent Taiwan is the only viable option for the region. Taiwan is already an independent nation in every practical sense. Its sovereignty is the linchpin of security in the Western Pacific, backed by the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act. The U.S. and its allies should not treat Taiwan’s independence as a negotiable variable or a dangerous provocation. It is the baseline reality. The preservation of an independent, democratic Taiwan is the only path that ensures regional stability and honors human liberty.
Eric Wargotz, M.D., is a geopolitical analyst and policy commentator who has held leadership roles across government and medicine. A clinical professor emeritus at George Washington University and Maryland judge, he is a former U.S. Senate nominee and elected county commission president. Cheryl-Ann Lee-Llacer Wargotz is an economic researcher and former network manager. With a background in economics and private asset administration, her interests focus on the intersection of global trade networks and Pacific Rim economics.