Election forecaster Cook Political Report moved the Georgia, Kansas, and South Carolina Senate races in favor of Democrats on Wednesday, pointing to what it called a “very blue environment forming” nationally.
“We have entered the most consequential part of the cycle, and it’s now incumbent on Republicans to prove they can withstand the political winds, particularly given the strong Democratic recruits keeping these races competitive,” Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote in her analysis.
The three race shifts are the latest movements made by election forecasters this week as pundit outlets such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have moved multiple Senate races to the Left as Republicans navigate issues like the Iran war and high energy prices. The shifts come less than six weeks before Election Day, as some states have already opened early voting for the midterm elections.
In this round of shifts, Cook Political Report shifted Georgia’s Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” Kansas’s Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” and South Carolina’s Senate race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
In the Peach State, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is vying to defend his seat against Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA). Collins is endorsed by President Donald Trump and outgoing popular Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), but he trails in major polling and fundraising. Ossoff has over $42.5 million in cash on hand, while Collins has just over $2 million. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also lists the race as likely Democratic.
“It is simply becoming clear that Rep. Mike Collins does not have the time or money — in addition to the type of profile — to make this race truly competitive. As such, it moves from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat,” Taylor wrote in the analysis.
In Kansas’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is attempting to stave off Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. The race has come into the spotlight in recent weeks because of Hamilton’s strong performance in recent polling in a state that Trump won by more than 16 percentage points in 2024. Cook Political Report cited the controversy over Marshall’s billing practices as an OBGYN physician, after the New York Times reported he had sued patients for unpaid medical bills.
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“Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has been put on the defensive over his billing and collection practices as an OBGYN, which Democrats promise to prosecute on the air in a state where advertising is fairly inexpensive. The attacks will come just as Democratic Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is running an increasingly strong race,” Taylor wrote.
In South Carolina, Cook Political Report says Sen. Darline Graham Nordone (R-SC) remains the “heavy favorite” against Democratic candidate and doctor Annie Andrews. But the outlet cited South Carolina Republican pundits’ “angst about Graham’s soft numbers and fears of low turnout” in its decision to shift the race to likely Republican. In Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecast, South Carolina remains a “safe Republican” race.