Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) got a dose of bad news Tuesday when a nonpartisan political forecaster reclassified her Senate race as a “toss-up.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised the competitiveness of Iowa’s Senate race from “leans Republican” to a toss-up in favor of Democrats. The rating shift follows Hinson’s efforts on Monday to distance herself from the Iran war, which has disproportionately affected Iowa’s agricultural sector.
Hinson, a Republican running for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-IA) seat against Democratic nominee Josh Turek, said in a statement that the war “needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end” and that Republicans should “use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.”
Included in that, Hinson called for “suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports, unleashing E-15 everywhere we can, reinstating the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit, and creating a diesel relief program to help our farmers and truckers being crushed by the high costs.”
Hinson was one of several Republicans locked in competitive races who called for action to lower gas and diesel prices that spiked in large part due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel prices hit a record high Tuesday, averaging $6.53 a gallon, while gasoline averaged $4.48, according to AAA.
The nonpartisan political tracker cited Hinson’s shift on the Iran war, as well as a new ad highlighting her bipartisan efforts, as “telling signs of a candidate adjusting to a threatening environment.”
The Washington Examiner contacted Hinson’s and Turek’s campaigns for comment.
Hinson’s stance on the Iran war, however, wasn’t the first time she has distanced herself from the Trump administration, having publicly disagreed with President Donald Trump over his slashing of tariffs on foreign beef imports, a plan that she argued would hurt domestic cattle ranchers.
The GOP Senate nominee also did not attend a rally in Iowa with Vice President JD Vance this month.
RURAL REPUBLICANS PRESS TRUMP FOR RELIEF AS DIESEL PRICES SURGE
Still, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has not written off Hinson’s bid yet, judging that polling from Marist showing Turek with an 8-point lead is “too good to be true for Democrats.” As part of its analysis, Sabato’s Crystal Ball highlighted late August polling from Emerson and Suffolk showing Hinson leading her Democratic opponent.
Her race is part of a larger 2026 map that will decide whether Republicans retain their control of the Senate for the remainder of Trump’s presidency.