The Houthis launched new forces into an offensive to take the southwestern highlands of Yemen, a move that could put the internationally recognized government’s capital in danger if successful.
After shocking the world with their lightning offensive earlier this month, which seized the entire Red Sea coast and secured the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the Houthis have redirected their forces into fighting in the strategic southwest highlands, the Kahboub Mountains, mainly sprawled across the governorates of Taiz and Lahij. The mountainous terrain is some of the most unforgiving in all of Yemen.
Despite the rapid nature of the collapse of internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council troops along the Red Sea coast, the situation in the Kahboub Mountains is much different, and a similar collapse is unlikely for now. PLC-controlled territories have begun widespread mobilization, including the militarily capable southern fighters. Many of the PLC’s most capable units, including the Southern Giants Brigades, are taking part in the fighting.
While the Houthis are concentrating their forces in the highlands, the PLC has done likewise. The PLC is also fighting with an increased sense of urgency, as the loss of the highlands could put the entire government in jeopardy. The highlands themselves also contain key supply and transportation links between government-controlled areas.
Saudi air support, which was inadequate at best during the Red Sea coast collapse, has intensified greatly, according to both anti-Houthi accounts and the Houthis themselves.
Mohammed al Basha, a Washington-based Yemen analyst and former Yemeni official, told CNN that the Houthis have also faced stiff resistance from local tribes.
One of the biggest dangers, he explained, was an offensive to surround the city of Taiz, the third-largest city in the country. The city, located within the highlands, serves as the anchor of a noticeable bulge in the front line and was the subject of a large siege for most of the civil war.
Whichever way the battle for the highlands goes will play a key role in President Donald Trump’s calculation on whether or not to intervene militarily to assist the Saudis in the fight. If the Houthis take the highlands and threaten Aden, the PLC’s capital, Trump could view the PLC as a lost cause not worth getting involved in. If the PLC is able to hold, and even push back the Houthis, the United States could begin looking at the wounded government more favorably.
Despite a more hopeful situation, the situation remains dangerous for the PLC. The Kahboub Mountains are the last major geographical barrier before Aden.
The Houthis’ rapid advance earlier this month occurred after the Houthis used light infantry shock troops to punch a hole through highlands further north, then surged reinforcements through the gap. Houthi mechanized forces poured through the opening, too fast for PLC forces to regroup, pushing the confused troops into a complete rout.
If the Houthis were to take the Kahboub Mountains, the path would be open for a similar maneuver, except this time toward the command and control center of the whole anti-Houthi movement.
Even if the Houthis decided against an offensive for Aden, holding the highlands would fully secure their gains on the coast, and shield them from shelling and observation from the mountains. The PLC, which already struggles on the defensive, wouldn’t have a realistic path for retaking the initiative.
Despite their egregious losses in recent weeks, the PLC is still exuding an aura of confidence. On Monday, PLC Prime Minister Shaya Mohsen al Zindani told the outlet Okaz that the fight with the Houthis is “not over,” and that it will retake the positions it has lost, including the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
BREWING CONFLICT WITHIN THE ANTI-HOUTHI COALITION RISKS BLOWING UP THE US STRATEGY IN YEMEN
“However harsh the developments on the ground may be, they do not signify the end of the battle, nor a change in its objective. The Yemeni state, its institutions, its armed forces, and the national forces understand the nature of this phase and are working to reorganize their ranks, enhance their readiness, and reclaim these positions and every inch of national territory,” he said.
Thousands have been killed and wounded since the war reignited in July, and roughly 130,000 people have been displaced in seven governorates over the recent fighting, according to the International Organization for Migration.