Trump’s tariffs are dragging down the GOP in the midterm elections

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump took the stage at the Republican midterm convention and bragged that his tariff regime had led to “the most successful two years financially … in the history of the presidency.” This wasn’t a new line. In January, he claimed his widespread tariffs, which are taxes imposed on goods imported to the United States, had “created an American economic miracle” and that critics should admit defeat and put on their red “Trump was right about everything” hats.

Well, most everyday American voters haven’t yet added those hats to their shopping carts. In fact, a new Morning Consult/Cato Institute poll of registered voters shows that Americans don’t buy Trump’s narrative about tariffs — and may punish Republicans in the midterm elections for how poorly they feel the trade war has gone for them.

To be sure, the tariff issue is top of mind for voters, just not in the way Trump would’ve hoped.

A whopping 75% said that tariffs are important to their midterm voting decisions. This was most concentrated among Democrats, at 88%, but 64% of independents and 65% of Republicans also say tariffs will influence their vote. And these folks aren’t exactly rushing to reward Republicans for Trump’s tariff “miracle” — the registered voters who say tariffs are important to their midterm vote are overwhelmingly leaning toward voting for the Democrats.

Meanwhile, most voters aren’t buying Trump’s narrative, long rejected by most economists, that other countries pay for the tariffs. Instead, their experiences reflect what basic economics and real-world research prove: Trump’s tariffs have raised costs for consumers to the tune of an estimated $1,100 annually.

An astonishing 74% of voters say that Trump’s tariffs have raised the costs they see in the checkout line, and, once again, it’s not a one-sided or partisan experience. Yes, this viewpoint is most common among Democrats, at 84%, but 66% of Republicans agree! 

Meanwhile, 53% of voters say Trump’s trade war has weakened the U.S. economy, and only 23% think the tariffs have improved their personal quality of life. (Side note: that 23% has some explaining to do!) 

To recap: voters overwhelmingly care about the tariffs, think the tariffs have hurt them personally, and lean toward Democrats. So, despite Trump’s never-ending, delusional victory laps claiming success, the reality of the situation is a straight-up nightmare for the Republican Party.

Yet are the tariffs at least helping restore American manufacturing? That’s another of the president’s justifications for all the chaos, disruption, and financial distress the trade war has caused. In reality, manufacturing employment slightly declined in the year after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of his most sweeping tariff regime.

So, it’s not surprising that voters aren’t buying this excuse, either. According to another Cato poll, 49% say the tariffs have hurt the U.S. manufacturing sector, with just 37% disagreeing and 14% saying they’ve had no impact.

Yikes!

IN FOCUS: TRUMP GOT A SECOND CHANCE. HE’S BLOWING IT

While Trump doesn’t have to confront the painful reality of his trade war’s economic and political failures, Republican candidates across the country do. This is one reason, among many, that the headwinds favor Democrats so overwhelmingly heading into the midterm elections, so much so that even seemingly safe Republican seats in places including Florida now have Democratic candidates competing in some polls.

Most of the damage here is probably done, but if Trump were somehow to realize the error of his ways and announce a move toward freer trade and lower tariffs with our trading partners, it could blunt the blow for the GOP. Yet there’s little chance of that happening — so Republicans will have to answer for this foolish trade war come November. 

Brad Polumbo is an independent journalist and host of the Brad vs Everyone podcast.