The escalating war around Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea is not merely another Middle Eastern conflict. It threatens two pillars of the international economic system: the free movement of global commerce and the security of the world’s energy supplies.
The Iran-backed Houthis’ expansion along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and their ability to threaten the Bab el Mandeb Strait have created a dangerous new front. This narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
The Houthi problem is not new. The Biden administration’s policy of appeasement toward Iran, including its February 2021 decision to revoke the Houthis’ designation as a foreign terrorist organization and specially designated global terrorist entity, had serious strategic consequences. The decision emboldened the terrorist group and further eroded trust between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Those consequences became part of the strategic inheritance confronting the Trump administration as it sought to contain Iran, deter its proxies, and restore confidence among America’s Gulf partners.
There is also an American political dimension that Washington should not ignore. Iran is maneuvering the Houthis and exploiting its wider proxy network not only to pursue military objectives, but also to drive up oil prices and undermine President Donald Trump, with the aim of inflicting a Republican defeat in the November midterm elections.
Trump’s strategy has successfully placed Iran under intense economic and strategic pressure through stringent sanctions and maritime blockade, while the U.S. Navy is protecting freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, therefore, has an incentive to reopen the Houthi front against Saudi Arabia to retaliate and regain strategic leverage.
Washington must also address Iran’s militia network in Iraq. There was hope that the new Iraqi government under Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi would bring Iranian-backed armed groups under state control. So far, that effort has failed to produce the necessary results. Recent attacks originating from Iraq against the Saudi oil pipeline demonstrate the danger of armed groups operating beyond effective state control.
The second urgent problem is the division between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This is precisely the wrong time for two of America’s most important Gulf partners to be divided. Fragmentation creates opportunities for Iran and its proxies.
The undermining of stability in southern Yemen has created a dangerous vacuum that Iran and the Houthis can exploit to expand their influence and territorial control. The Saudi-Emirati dispute further complicates efforts to establish a unified front in Yemen and across the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia’s recent efforts to strengthen its relationships with Turkey and Pakistan are understandable, but these relationships cannot replace the historic strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., nor can they substitute for close Saudi-Emirati cooperation.
Trump can play an important diplomatic role by personally encouraging Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reconcile their differences and rebuild a coherent Gulf security framework. Given the escalating regional threats, Trump should give this issue his highest diplomatic priority.
There is no magic military solution. Saudi Arabia cannot confront these challenges alone. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other willing partners need a coordinated strategy to protect the Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, defend energy infrastructure, preserve freedom of navigation, and confront Iran-backed armed groups.
Iran benefits when America’s allies are divided, when Iraqi militias operate beyond Baghdad’s control, and when insecurity drives up economic costs around the world.
The first step toward victory is rebuilding unity.
Entifadh Qanbar is a former spokesman for the deputy prime minister of Iraq, a Washington-based policy adviser, and a doctoral candidate in statecraft and national security at the Institute of World Politics in Washington.