DALLAS — Republicans are facing warning signs that the historic gains they made with Hispanic voters in 2024 could be slipping away, less than two months before the midterm elections.
Hispanic voters swung toward President Donald Trump at a historic record for a GOP candidate during the 2024 presidential election. Trump won 43% of Hispanic voters, nearly matching former President George W. Bush’s 2004 record. But recent polls show Hispanic support for the GOP slipping, a worrying sign as the party seeks to maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
At the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention this week, many speakers, some of whom are Hispanic, sought to contrast the GOP as the responsible party against “radical” Democrats who would transform the United States into a socialist nation.
Some advocates warn this may not be enough to keep Hispanic voters within the GOP tent.
“I sense that this administration during these two years hasn’t quite met expectations that the Latino community had as far as GDP growth and bringing down inflation to you know 2% or less,” Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Initiative, told the Washington Examiner.
A recent poll from Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision showed that the economy outranks immigration as Latino voters’ top concern. The survey also showed that 62% of voters said they trusted Democrats in Congress more to lower prices, while 36% said they trusted Republicans more.
Another recent poll of Texas Hispanic likely voters conducted for the Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision showed Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates leading their Republican competitors by a 2-to-1 margin in the Lone Star State, home to a crucial Senate battle between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
“We have to acknowledge reality, and reality is right now things are tough with groceries and with gas,” said Gregory Cunningham, the Republican nominee for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. “I think there’s anger, and I think that there’s a frustration growing. But I do believe that we are on the right track.”
Rising gas prices stemming from the Iran war have frustrated voters of all backgrounds this year. For Latino households in California, rising gas prices “are intensifying affordability pressures that were already in place” according to a fact sheet from the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. The fact sheet also showed that Latino households spend roughly $4,900 a year on gas, compared to about $3,600 for non-Latino households.
Republicans are trying to appeal to Hispanic voters by framing the election as necessary to block socialists from gaining power.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) pointed to his family fleeing communist Cuba as a warning of what electing more Democrats like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani this cycle would mean during his RNC convention speech Thursday evening.
“When people tell you who they are, believe them. When Hasan Piker says America deserved 9/11, believe him,” said Cruz. “When Mamdani says he wants to seize the means of production, he means it. When Abdul el Sayed says he has a ‘obligation to comply with sharia law,’ he means it. And when James Talarico says he wants to dismantle capitalism, he means this.”
Alfonso Aguilar, director of hispanic engagement at the America First Policy Institute, told the Washington Examiner that Cruz’s approach is one way the GOP can continue to win over Hispanic voters before November.
“I think that they’re very concerned with the rise of extreme socialism on the Left,” Aguilar said. “They know what it means. They’ve seen those threats in Latin America. Some have lived it in their own lives. … I think the president and the convention did address that. This is about common sense, the American dream versus socialism, communism. So I think that spoke to Hispanics, absolutely.”
Veronica Cunningham, 39, a homemaker from Argentina, echoed those comments, telling the Washington Examiner, “I will never want for this country what I live[d] in my country.”
Trump’s gains fueled Republican hopes that Hispanic voters were undergoing a lasting political realignment. But polling less than two months before Election Day suggests some of that support is slipping as voters remain frustrated with the cost of living, forcing Republicans to make the case that the stakes of Democratic control extend beyond pocketbook concerns.
Still, both Garza and Aguilar argued that Hispanic voters remain persuadable in the final sprint to Election Day.
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“We’re very young, we’re very swingy, we’re very transactional, right? You know, what have you done for me lately? They like outcomes,” Garza said.
Aguilar also cautioned that polls may not always capture the full spectrum of Hispanic voters. “They’re not really following groupthink. They’re thinking of what’s best for themselves, for their families, and I think that’s how we should understand Hispanics as we move towards the midterms,” he said. “Meaning that whatever you see in the polls right now may change in a month, and I think that the polling that we’re seeing today, I don’t think necessarily fully captures what Hispanics are thinking.”