Canada and the United States have been great friends, allies, and trading partners for many years. They’ve had disagreements on areas of mutual importance like the auto sector, softwood lumber, and acid rain. They didn’t see eye-to-eye on wars in Iraq and Vietnam. Their views on apartheid in South Africa were diametrically opposed for a spell, too.
Despite these occasional differences of opinion, the Canada-U.S. relationship has remained strong. How was this accomplished? They often agreed to disagree in a civil manner. They typically worked hard to find a middle ground. They always found a way to get back on the same page.
Until recently, that is. President Donald Trump’s July 20 announcement of 50% tariffs on a litany of Canadian goods, including down jackets, alcohol, and even hockey sticks, turned into an unexpected Pier-Six brawl between the two countries. A last-ditch attempt to patch things up collapsed on Aug. 21 when the frustrated Canadian side reportedly left the negotiation table.
Many political commentators (including me) weren’t wholly convinced in the beginning that this new tariff threat would amount to anything. The president has regularly used tariffs as a negotiation tactic and bargaining tool, and ultimately reversed course. Even in the instances where it’s gone further, there’s always been some light at the end of the tunnel to gracefully exit a particular dispute. Canada has experienced this before. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products — for 25% and 10%, respectively — in his first administration began on June 1, 2018, and expired on May 20, 2019. (Two presidential proclamations on Feb. 10, 2025, reinstated those tariffs at 25% apiece.) There were also the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods he announced on Truth Social on Nov. 25, 2024, just before he returned to the White House. They only lasted for two days.
The situation was different this time around. Trump’s personal and political relationship with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had soured in recent months. As bad as things had been between Trump and Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, the political divide was actually getting worse with the current PM. And while most of the targeted Canadian goods had been exempt from tariffs under the umbrella of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Trump’s enthusiasm for this trade deal that he pushed for in his first presidential term had waned significantly. It was a similar scenario to his dislike of its predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he once described as the “worst trade deal in the history of the country.”
In spite of all this, it seemed highly unlikely that Trump would take the drastic step of initiating a full-scale trade war that could potentially hurt the economies of both countries. And yet, that’s exactly what happened.
How did things fall apart? It’s a good question, since no one knows exactly for sure.
“We have recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship,” Carney wrote in his statement about Canada-U.S. trade relations after negotiations broke down on Aug. 21. “Our government understood, before many, that America is altering all its trade relationships. Putting tariffs on its closest allies and charging for access to its vast market. We have worked in that context. To strike a fair deal that would provide the best access to the U.S. market and greater certainty to Canadian businesses and workers…However, last-minute changes in the U.S. proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal.”
What were those changes? It remains a bit of a mystery from the Canadian side.
“Carney wasn’t specific during his press conference,” I wrote in my Troy Media syndicated column on Aug. 25. “He didn’t focus on numbers, facts, figures, previous amounts and any back-and-forth discussions. Due to the history and importance of the Canada-U.S. relationship, it had to be explained in granular detail. Generalities are acceptable in some cases, but not this one.”
Various questions remain unanswered. Was there a back-and-forth process with respect to tariffs and tariff-rate quotas related to the auto sector, softwood lumber, steel, aluminum, liquor, and supply management for the dairy industry? There’s been no clear indication of this. Did Canadian subsidies for French culture and bilingual labeling on Canadian products become a sticking point? Perhaps, but it hardly seems like a valid reason for Canada to abandon an important trade deal. Could the last-minute intervention of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and trade adviser Peter Navarro have been the straw that broke the Canadian camel’s back? Maybe, but we still don’t know exactly what they said or did to raise the ire of the Great White North.
Conversely, the U.S. released a fire and brimstone document on Aug. 25 that accused Canada of choosing “unreasonable demands, walk-backs, and flat-out rejection” over partnership and suggesting it was going to end “Canada’s free ride.” Did Canadian negotiators ever discuss reducing tariff-rate quotas for supply management, a huge sticking point for Trump, or lowering any other tariffs? Were certain items and products kept out of the discussion, and why? Was Canada perceived as being reasonable or unreasonable with respect to proposals and demands? These questions remain unanswered, too.
Both sides are now pointing fingers at each other and taking cues from Alfred E. Neuman’s motto in Mad magazine, “What, me worry?” The U.S. is blaming Carney and the Liberals for being unreasonable and impossible to deal with, while Canada is blaming Trump and the Republicans for being untrustworthy and attempting to browbeat them into submission.
This has led to foolish tirades such as Trump’s meaningless executive order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America,” which becomes the president’s newest claim to a body of water, following the Gulf of Mexico/Gulf of America brouhaha. They’re also insulting one another in the most juvenile fashion possible. For example, Ontario Premier Doug Ford recently called Trump a “bully,” “arrogant and cocky,” and said that “he can kiss my ass as far as I’m concerned” during a radio interview. This led Trump to retaliate on Truth Social by describing Ford as a “Flunky” and a “less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford.” (That’s the former mayor of Toronto who admitted to smoking crack cocaine in one of his “drunken stupors,” lest we forget.)
Okay, then. Who’s to blame for causing this political rift? Canada and the U.S. are equally responsible, whether they want to admit it or not.
Trump obviously initiated the tariffs that led to this preposterous and unnecessary trade war. He’s made plenty of critical comments this summer about the country he’s currently in an economic war with.
“Canada’s nasty. They are. They’re nasty. I love the people, but they’re nasty. Nasty leadership,” he said in a Las Vegas speech on Aug. 5.
“Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years. On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst Nations in the World to deal with,” he wrote on Truth Social on Aug. 24.
While none of this should be ignored, neither can this statement be ignored: it takes two to tango in political disputes. Carney is so far from being innocent in this sordid political affair that it’s not even funny.
The PM has been quite critical of Trump this year. This includes cryptic attacks against the president in his Davos speech in January about a “rupture in the world order,” “gaps between rhetoric and reality,” and “American hegemony.” Carney released a short video in April that some suggested was similar to Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s fireside chats, but was really a means of needling Trump without having to name him publicly. As he said in part, “We can’t control the disruption coming from our neighbors. We can’t bet our future in the hope that it will suddenly stop. But we can control what happens here.”
Since the trade war began, his rhetoric against Trump and the White House has ramped up considerably. He suggested that Washington’s terms and conditions would “destroy” Canada’s auto, steel, and aluminum sectors, demanded the Trump administration stop treating Canada as a “subsidiary,” and posited that Canada would only return to the negotiating table when America has “the right attitude towards our industries and in a true partnership.”
Some Canadians will likely consider Carney’s comments to be tit for tat in response to Trump’s past remarks. A competition of political bluster and infantile banter won’t bring this trade war any closer to a resolution, however.
There’s also Carney’s bizarre assessment that the Canadian economy has been — wait for it — better off since the trade war began.
“We’re stronger now than when the United States started this trade war,” Carney told the media on Aug. 22. “Canada has all the resources we need to pivot and prosper. Growth is accelerating, we’re projected to have the second-fastest rate in the G7 this year and next. We are creating jobs in this economy at four times the rate of the United States… Canada now ranks as the most attractive country in the world for infrastructure investment.”
In Carney’s view, “Canada is becoming stronger and less dependent on America. We are already giving ourselves more than they can take away. And we are just getting started.”
Huh? What is Carney talking about, eh?
“One would naturally expect the PM to put on a brave face and utilise some positive spin when speaking in public,” I wrote in the U.K.’s Daily Telegraph on Aug. 27. “But anyone who believes Canada has been getting stronger during a time of political turbulence and economic crisis is fooling themselves.”
The U.S. has long been Canada’s largest trading partner with respect to goods and services, according to the Canadian government’s own website, “while Canada is the U.S.’ second-largest trading partner.” It also notes “nearly $3.6 billion (US$2.6 billion) worth of goods and services crossed the border each day in 2024.”
To make up for this significant economic loss, Carney made the controversial decision to increase trade with China, which is currently in a trade war with the U.S. He’s also pushed for Canada to join the European Union. This seemed rather far-fetched at one point, but according to Bloomberg on Aug. 8, “discussions are ongoing” to reportedly establish a “new, all-encompassing relationship that will range from trade to security.” Even if nothing materializes, the Canadian government is clearly looking elsewhere for economic partnerships. It’s also worth mentioning that the Canada-EU talks were announced on the same day that Canada’s threat to implement counter-tariffs on U.S. products materialized. Subtle, this prime minister isn’t.
Meanwhile, Canadian exporters suggested they could lose half their revenue if Trump’s tariffs were imposed. An Oxford Economics report for the Canadian American Business Council identified the potential for hundreds of thousands of jobs to be lost in both countries due to the tariffs. Carney, and Trump, for that matter, won’t be easily able to accept, ignore, or deflect the distinct possibility of long-term economic decline and massive job losses due to this trade war.
As a final point, this isn’t the first time our countries have viewed each other as bitter enemies. You have to go back to the War of 1812, when the U.S. went to battle against the United Kingdoms of Great Britain, Ireland and its dependencies after various political disagreements, trade restrictions, economic blockades and more. Canada, the largest dependent in this particular theatre of war, played an active role against the U.S. in military victories (Detroit, Fort Niagara, Eastern Maine) and losses (York, Fort George, Fort Erie) until the fighting ended in 1815.
WILL THE US AND CANADA BE FRIENDS AGAIN?
The War of 1812 was obviously a more violent and bloody affair than the War of 2026 will ever be. Nevertheless, the never-ending series of verbal jabs associated with the latter has transformed it into a war of attrition with no end in sight. That’s why Trump and Carney need to reconsider past Canada-U.S. relations, set their differences aside, and return to the negotiating table to end this trade war that neither country asked for.
Michael Taube, a columnist for the National Post, Troy Media and Loonie Politics, was a speechwriter for former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.